Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Shape and Structure of Big Tech


In the US, the approaching elections has resulted in the rediscovery of the curse of bigness. The last major action sought was against Microsoft in the late 1990s and early 2000. However the end result rather than the intended split was a mere rap in the knuckles for Microsoft. There were threats of action during the Obama regime but very little concrete action. In contrast, during Obama, the big technology firms gained in size and market power. Currently, a bipartisan effort is underway to tame the ‘big-tech’, with most suggestions pinpointed on the splitting of big-tech.

In orthodox dialect, big tech refers to Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft. It however can be expanded to other firms also. Little dispute exists over the power build-up of these firms in the last decade or so. Facebook with its acquistions of Instagram and WhatsApp has virtually become undisputed in the social media space. Similarly through multiple approaches irrespective of ethicality or otherwise, Amazon seems to be numero uno by significant distance in online shopping space besides having extended its predominance in the cloud space. Microsoft enjoyed a near monopoly in operating systems, found itself under threat from Android yet makes a sharp comeback through cloud. Apple has virtually created an own ecosystem tethered and threatening the generativity of the internet. Google using its dominance in search is wading into waters across territories. Contrary to John Perry Barlow’s assertion of internet being hotspot of competition, the pyramid being greasy and thus little scope for monopolization, the things have turned out differently. The first wave of internet set up might have waned, its successors have consolidated and seems at least for the moment comfortably positioned in monopoly positions.

Facebook is fundamentally in practice an advertising and space selling firm, one who monetizes human communication and exchange. Humans love to gossip and boast. It goes without saying, the intrinsic human tendency to tell neighbours and friends about achievements, shopping purchases, restaurant and movie visits, and gossip about the next door neighbour’s affairs among others. This exists from time immemorial, all Facebook has done is enabling scaling up the same and creating a global reach from the town square addah. The firm tracks the conversations and monetizes them to numerous marketing firms eager to promote their brands and product-ware to the customers.  Firms love first and second degree price discrimination and Facebook is a platform that you unwittingly use to reveal your pricing preferences.  To add, Facebook acquired Instagram in what virtually undisputed acquisition. To be fair, Instagram had such a small base, very few would have thought about its future prospects. They compounded it with Whatsapp which primarily depends on cross subsidy from Facebook for revenues. It faces competition from Telegram etc. Facebook is free but the freedom comes at a cost. The trade-off Facebook’s ability to monetize the data which invades the heart of consumer privacy. As a consumer, one would want to keep their preferences secret but the ability of the marketers to capture the same and promote tailor-made product offering to consumers could be unnerving. Any solution to Facebook rather than simple focus on splitting up or analysis on price front, must look in depth at the data gathered, consumer consent for gathering of the said data and consumer say in the end usage of the data. If issues of privacy are believed to disappear post-split, then the authorities would be performing huge disservice.

In fact the problem of privacy, monetizing consumer’s private data, and mining behaviour of consumers to lock in customers in the future seems to be the defining feature of the emergent digital economy. Almost all firms in the space seek to capitalize on the same, just that the few scale it up on the global level.

Apple constructed an ecosystem top-down converting i-appliances away from the generative internet. Internet at its foundations stood for what ZIttrain describes as generative nature. By exhibiting conditions of leverage, adaptability, ease of usage and accessibility, the generative net was supposed to eliminate investment inertia, facilitate innovation, and generate participatory input while minimizing legacy costs. Yet the appliancization of Apple strikes at the heart of the internet founding principles. The appliancization makes people a part of Apple ‘jail’, a part of walled garden where a guardian would lead to areas which are freely accessible, partly accessible and completely prohibited. Apple in extending its software built on a hardware creates new ecosystem, a system it imagines will be the future of the internet.

Contrast to Apple, Google is a conglomerate at times what prima facie seems to be of unrelated business yet all grounded in the data collected through search and the server farms harvested across the world. To Google, which practically is a space selling or advertising firm, all its revenues are derived from advertising. It is not averse to large scale of monetization of the data. Data mining firms find Google analytics as indispensable in their strategizing to woo and retain customer base. Google advertising takes it to a different level the paradigm of AIDA where a firm is able to monitor journey from attention to action via interest and desire. Google unlike Apple states its belief in an open system perhaps out of necessity as it sought to challenge Windows on the new mobile platforms. In fact, 87 % revenue for Google, & whopping 98 % for Facebook come from advertising and are two of the fastest-growing consumer tech companies, despite being mature businesses. Wherever Facebook and Google lead, the rest of digital advertising world will follow.

Microsoft, building through cloning strategy, and faced regulatory challenges in the past is redefied avatar seeks to be conglomerate of host of business from Search to professional networking (Linkedin) to cloud to database management to desktop publishing.  Yet to each of these firms, as they operate at multiple levels of stack, it is not pure monopoly. On some layers of stack, they compete with different players and on some layers, they are monopolies.  The mobile stack is define by simultaneous competition and cooperation at different layers viz. device layer, operating system layer, distribution layer and the app layer.

Despite the above, given the network effects that are in play, the stranglehold of the tech firms on the consumers is likely to be long lasting. Therefore their power in terms of increased concentration in the market needs to be regulated to maximise consumer welfare. Economics rests on the principle of markets maximising consumer welfare.  The near zero price for many of these offerings by Big-Tech might indicate a sort of consumer welfare and thus advocates of laissez faire believe these companies should be left alone. However, the price is not explicit alone. There is implicit price to be paid in terms of consumer privacy, lock-in etc. However, the solutions suggested from mild to drastic seem to anchor in the brick and mortar industrial information era. Given the changed semantics of the digital era, the solutions to rein in the monopolies of the digital era need very different solutions. Therefore, curse of bigness to be cured by splits a la trust busting of early 1900s seems misleading.


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