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Showing posts with the label Technology Forecasting

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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Technology Forecasts for Post Wuhan Virus World

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COVID-19, the pandemic caused by a virus originating from Wuhan, China seems no sign of peaking out. Yet, as in any battle, human mankind will emerge triumphant. However, to expect life to be same post pandemic might not be a valid proposition. Indubitably, life will return to normal and with passage of time, the aftereffects are forgotten. Hardly anybody remembers the after effects of Spanish flu though in terms of destruction it was far more severe. As with any disruption, there are bound to be changes that bring about their own unique idiosyncrasies. Similarly, the changes brought about by the current round would be long lasting. The post “ Tech Forecasts and the Post China Virus World ” captured some of the possible changes thanks to technology in the post pandemic world.   In continuation with the above post, it would be pertinent to decode some more features that might characterize the post pandemic universe. Sanitization Tunnels The economy cannot come to a standstill
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A Note of Gartner Hype Curve

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Technology drives human progress. Yet it is not deterministic as believed by section of experts and practitioners. Technology is per se neutral, it is the means through which human ingenuity drives progress. There is of course excitement over the emergent technologies. Individuals as well as societies desire technology to be the catalyst in driving innovation, in making possible what they desire to want, a mechanism that occurs through a series of steps of achieving adjacent possible. Therefore in more ways than one, technology forecasting becomes critical input in planning the future tactics and strategy for any firm, individual or in aggregate terms an economy or a society. However, technology rarely emerges in an orderly fashion. More often than not, it emerges from the most unexpected of the places and at unexpected times. There are more than enough occasions when technology emerged far ahead of its time and thus failed to achieve a critical mass. To understand technology fo
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