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Showing posts with the label COVID-19

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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Tourism Industry in the Times of Pandemic

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  The pandemic induced by the Chinese virus has taken a toll on the economies across the world without exception. Industries are affected in terms of their productivity one due to lockdowns and thus restriction on production as also on demand and secondly due to the employees testing positive for the Chinese virus thus absenting themselves from work and perhaps affecting the co-workers in the process becoming superspreaders. The economies have witnessed recession across board and it is only now that some economies are turning the corner. It is however very early days to be optimistic of a full recovery in the current financial year. India was on the verge of a turnaround before the second wave hit in full fury resulting in lockdowns across states. Though the lockdowns varied in intensity and perhaps was not as strict as it was in the first lockdown, the impact on productivity would have to be gauged as the data comes in for the first quarter of the financial year 2021-22. Rather than p
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India's Vaccination Drive: What Next?

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  India seems to have seen the worst off the second wave of the Chinese pandemic. In cities like Delhi, the pandemic seems to have abated with the same pace in which it materialized in April. It is perhaps a mystery on the behavior of the pandemic in terms of its spread and consequent contraction in an equally swift time. While the country is recovering slowly from the pandemic, the vaccination program seems to be picking some pace. The recovery from the pandemic might be slow given the convexities involved, the pact of vaccination would determine the pace of recovery. If the vaccination pace is high, the chances of breakthrough infections and consequent mutations might decrease. In fact, it is in the global self-interest that the vaccination be carried out at a very fast pace. The global vaccination programs are still subject to the geopolitics and protectionism, despite the US announcing lifting of barriers in terms of supply of vaccine raw materials as also with export of excess vac
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CBSE Exams, Chinese Pandemic and Indian Education

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  The second wave of the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus seem to be abating in the country, yet the toll it has taken seems to be manifesting in multiple ways. It is not just the people who have died but the livelihoods it has destroyed might take years to recover. The livelihoods destroyed are both on account of death of family members, breadwinners, kids losing either one or both parents, the loss of jobs induced by the lockdowns, the drop in demand for many goods impacting the production of the goods among many other things. Many skilled and unskilled workers are left hunting for jobs with little sight to their end in misery. Away from this the children have lost their childhood. Kept confined to their homes, they might grow very different in social experiences away from the elders. They are not able to enjoy the natural role of playing and meeting with friends. Furthermore, their education has been disrupted. The schools are closed and thus the learning is almost nil. There a
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India's COVID Waves

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  India’s second wave of the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus seems to continue unabated. The experts are forecasting a peak in a day or two. There are some positive signs however feeble they might be about the plateau of cases in a few states. Yet, the devastation seems to ravage. It would nice in statistics to talk about peak and plateau and flattening of the curve. It would be impersonal in statistics to discuss these terms. Yet to those who are suffering from the pandemic and those who have lost their lives and those who have lost their loved ones, it is a different thing altogether. The wreckage it has created besides the impact on the people’s psyche might take years before some normalcy might return. There is in all likelihood an increase in the cases impacting mental health which might not be easy to tackle around. There seems to be around a corner a mental health crisis across the country and perhaps globally. India has been facing the worse in the last month or so especi
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Behavioral Changes, Online Shopping and Chinese Virus

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  The pandemic from China certainly has set in motion certain behavioral changes conceivably an unintended consequence of the same. The need for social distancing and the urge to avoid crowds make people think alternatively to meet their needs. Shopping is turning increasingly online so would be the food deliveries. People visit eateries to enjoy and experience. Yet the same experience for instance is to be missed given the prevailing lockdowns that have become part and parcel of life in the last thirteen months and so. The people would have to opt for the second best option perhaps, the online food deliveries. It is not that the people were not accustomed to online shopping for their grocery needs, their daily vegetable and fruit needs, their daily needs for food from eateries and of course expanding to consumer durables to books to CDs to clothes and what not.   The pre-pandemic online buying behavior was driven by demographics. It was generally the young who felt these things we
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Indian Economy and COVID-19 Second Wave

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  The challenge in the second wave of the coronavirus orginatiing in China is managing the economy. In the previous instance of the first wave of 2020, India had gone in for an early lockdown when the cases were hardly in double digits. India had perhaps one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. This certainly managed to contain the wave and slow down the spread. The peak came something later around mid-September, partly causes by the increased flow of migrants across the country. The gravity was essentially a result of mismanagement in contact tracing by states like Maharashtra and Delhi. The lockdown took a heavy toll on the economy. The economy crashed to fall nearing 25% yoy. The lockdown also led to the recession for the first time in India. The economic scars is something government wants to avoid this time around. The economic impact and consequent social transfers led to the fiscal deficit hitting close to 10% of the GDP. There is of course a question whether India would be
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President Biden's Challenges

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  As President Biden took office a couple of months ago, conservative historian Niall Fergusson wrote an interesting piece juxtaposing the challenges President Biden might face in the coming months and years. The article is available  here . The challenges range from China to Chinese virus to crime to racial divide in a country deeply torn by divisions. To add, would be his age- he is already the oldest to occupy the White House for the first time- apart from his health concerns. President Biden was favored by the establishment as the socialist Bernie Sanders threatened to run away with the Democrat nomination. The choice of Biden was also dictated perhaps by the fact he was the least unacceptable among the contenders. His term as Vice President during Obama administration cemented his credentials. Yet as he assumed office, US is certainly not in the best of the times. There are some scholars who are already talking about the Soviet days during Gorbachev. There are enough obituaries ab
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One Crore Vaccinations- What Next?

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  It has taken 35 days for India to reach one crore vaccination mark as it battles the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus. It indicates roughly three lakh vaccines being administered every day. The second round of vaccinations are underway. The coverage of frontline workers is expanding and hope to achieve 90%+ mark in a couple of weeks or so. It is perhaps with anticipation that the Indian population looks to expanding the vaccination drive to the next phase of the elderly and the vulnerable. There was no doubt given the frontline workers have performed over the last year or so in combating the pandemic, they needed to be administered the vaccine at first priority. The doctors and other healthcare workers are needed to combat with preparedness in case of any eventuality. There is further no doubt that there needed to be observed on the effects of the vaccine in terms of immediate side effects or so. It would need some time before the health care authorities could unearth some insig
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the Great Indian Vaccine Drive

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  India has begun the vaccination drive against the Chinese virus induced COVID-19 pandemic. Given the population size of nearly 1.4 billion, it would perhaps be the largest vaccination drive ever undertaken. The fact that it has to be undertaken in a very short time say about less than a year, the ambitions would be sheer audacity given the logistics involved in such a mammoth effort. It is not just about production of vaccines, but going beyond into the quality control, the transport from the plants to the different storage centres further to be distributed to the states and the districts and then to the vaccination centres. To add, the supply must be continuous with little disruption. The conditions for transporting the vaccines would have to be adhered to. Furthermore, the preparations at the each of the centres in terms of administering the vaccine apart from training the vaccinators itself would be daunting. There is furthermore need to coordinate with the people in fixing their
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US Tech IPOs in the Pandemic Times

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  The year 2020 has been pretty bad for the economy across the world. The pandemic induced by the Chinese virus seemingly created havoc across countries. As countries raced to protect their citizens, the trade-off was a lock down quite severe in some of the countries. The economic activity had to halt to protect human lives and prevent the virus from spreading. While the drug companies raced to be the first to produce the vaccine, the policy makers seemed to have little option but to restrict life and freedom till such time the clouds become clear. Recession is being reported from across countries with many reporting a dip in the growth well excess of 20% signalling a possible depression. The fiscal and monetary policy both seemed to show limitations. The fiscal seemed the better of the two with government pushing in cash transfers and stimulus to households and industry alike. There is no doubt the spillovers impacted the market too. The financial markets too have taken a sort of beat
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Geopolitical Case against Vaccine Nationalism

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  Europe is facing a second wave of infections resulting from the Chinese virus. While the mortality rates are relatively lower compared to the first wave in March, the sheer infectiousness is very high. The US is yet to recover even from the first wave and the Presidential election campaign seems to have increased the infections. India on the other hand is seeing a decline in both infections as also the death rate. The positivity rate is coming down with some green shoots being visible. There is no room for complacency though. The festival season is on in India. The social distancing norms and the mask norms are routinely violated and given the Indian population becomes difficult to implement beyond a point. The ongoing election campaign in Bihar and other states is also likely to have an impact. Maybe India has to wait till early December before some it can be said with some definitiveness that India has past the peak decisively.   Meanwhile, the vaccines against the Chinese viru
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COVID-19 Testing, ICMR and the Way Forward

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Sometime back, the post “ Rationality of Indian Testing Strategy and Chinese Flu ” examined the course of Indian testing strategy and philosophy in reference to diagnosis of the Chinese flu. The synopsis of the post was summarized as ‘Contrary to the demands of the testing mafia, the focus should be on testing large numbers in areas worst affected by the Chinese flu rather than blind and random testing across the country’. The post had concluded that the then strategy of conservative testing was working well given the Chernoff bound and thus little need existed for the change as suggested by certain groups. In a recent post, “ The Impossible Trinity of Chinese Virus ”, it was posited an existence of an impossible trinity. A country cannot have conservative testing, open economy and low reproduction ratio simultaneously. These two posts at some level appear to contradict each other. As with any event, facts emerge necessitating a change in approach. The thought process is dynamic and he
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