As President Biden took office a couple
of months ago, conservative historian Niall Fergusson wrote an interesting
piece juxtaposing the challenges President Biden might face in the coming
months and years. The article is available here. The challenges range from China to Chinese
virus to crime to racial divide in a country deeply torn by divisions. To add,
would be his age- he is already the oldest to occupy the White House for the
first time- apart from his health concerns. President Biden was favored by the
establishment as the socialist Bernie Sanders threatened to run away with the
Democrat nomination. The choice of Biden was also dictated perhaps by the fact
he was the least unacceptable among the contenders. His term as Vice President
during Obama administration cemented his credentials. Yet as he assumed office,
US is certainly not in the best of the times. There are some scholars who are
already talking about the Soviet days during Gorbachev. There are enough
obituaries about the death of the American power.
In his first couple of months in
office, Biden has projected a very aggressive decision making style given the
sheet number of legislations he has sought to pass and even further the sheer
executive orders he has passed, in his first two months in office surpassing
all his predecessors by a large margin. Yet for all the aggression he has
demonstrated, his challenges have perhaps have just began. On the economic
front, there has been a huge stimulus which is likely to fuel inflationary
expectations. There would be a case for leg-up in inflationary expectations,
yet the US has been apprehensive of inflation since the 1970s when it faced
stagflation. The new theories like MMT might be making inflation’s linkage to
money supply more tenous but the fact remains that US has at the back of its
mind of inflation creating a possible havoc. Given the fiscal and monetary
policy both aimed at monetary expansion, it would be interesting to see how US
economy shapes up in the coming months and years. Of course, the economic logic
of the policy does need a detailed engagement of its own.
The more important of
the challenges for President Biden would be tackling the corona virus crisis. One
might be reaching the crest of the virus, yet given the spread of variants, one
is not sure about the likely end date. There is hope and declaration that US
might vaccinate all eligible adults by July 4, yet there would be quite a bit
of things between the hand and the lip. President Biden might have enjoyed
popularity at the ascendance of his presidency but most of it seem to be
manufactured. US is coming from a deeply divided elections wherein a
significant section of society believe it to be stolen. For all the rancour
President Trump generated among the liberals, the fact he managed to poll more
than 45% of the vote itself indicates his popularity among sections of the US
society. Rather than bridging the gap, the initial responses have been more to antagonize
these sections further.
Biden;s victory was
possible because of a coalition of disparate set of groups all having common
denominator of hatred and opposition for Trump. Remove Trump was perhaps the
only thing that bound them. Yet in their support, they would have clamoured for
their pound of flesh. They would be more than keen to extract their pound of
flesh. Take for instance the campaign for ‘Defund Police’. The BLM and Antifa
were mere smokescreen for violent anarchists to seek to capture power by backdoor.
The Democrats supported them as long as it suited their agenda to oppose Trump.
While the racial divide is not new in the US, the fact that Trump was projected
as a hate-figure added fuel to the fire. The consolidation of the Black vote
against Trump suited Biden and his team, yet now as they face the challenges of
law and order, they have to handle the monster they have created.
To add, the
immigration issues would confound Biden even more. While Trump might have been
over-aggressive, the fact remains US is sceptical of immigrants taking away the
jobs and livelihoods. There is definitely an issue of legal versus illegal
immigration. By seeking to legalise the illegal, Biden might be attempting to
create further fuel that will add to the fire. The divisions might worsen with
the passage of time. There is the ever present crisis of national priorities
and culture over the ‘aliens’ and this will play out in the months to come. The
conservative constituency of the Alt-Right would be watched with interest with
respect to their moves in the days ahead.
China is something that
cannot be wished away. Biden’s stance is not something different from what his
predecessor did. Trump would be remembered for creating a radical overhaul of
the American China policy. Secretary Blinken seems to be following his predecessor,
Secretary Pompeo’s footsteps. An implication of this would mean hardly an
equilibrium on the China front. In fact, through the Cold War, there were
constant tensions, and it was basically moving from one crisis to another, be
it Cuba or Vietnam or Afghanistan. Similarly, from Hong Kong to Taiwan to
Korea, there might be an instance one too many where US will have to take a
stand that might be detrimental to its long standing China policy till Trump
turned it over.
The Presidents who
have taken office in times of crisis have used the defusing of the crisis as
foundation for their second term. In fact, President Roosevelt assumed office at
the near end of the Great Depression, but the widespread perception was his New
Deal enabled the conquest of the Depression. Yet, there are events or rather ‘opposition
of events’ as a former British PM put it that would define the Presidency.
President Biden is likely to be a single term President, someone essentially
propped up to counter the Trump alt-right. Therefore, his legacy might not be
dependent on the solutions he would provide. In all probability, he would conquer
the COVID crisis, and put some roadmap towards handling China. Yet he would
have to prepared for events beyond their control that would perhaps define
America as it would head to maintaining its superpower status in the present
century.
Comments
Post a Comment