Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

The Hand of Finance in the Digital Business Models

 

The business landscape keeps changing. The only constant perhaps in business would be change. Therefore, there would be a pressing need to re-haul the business models to accommodate the changing environment. As the brick and mortar economy gives way to the digital economy, the firms have to constantly innovate. The firms are configured for a certain topography and when faced with an unfamiliar configuration of assets and resources, they struggle. This perhaps could be a critical point in understanding why very few firms survive for more than half a century. There would be hardly a handful of firms which might record double digit year on year growth over let us say five consecutive years.

 

The landscape that has been predominating over the last couple of decades is something interesting. There is an increase in research and development costs. It is a different story that the returns continue to sub-par with respect to the expenditure on research and development. Yet in the absence of continuous research and development, the firms would find it very difficult to navigate the commercial structure. The firms themselves arose as an answer to transaction costs that prevent a pure play market model from emerging in the context of factor demand and supply. To many technology firms, the investment on research and development often become a deterrent in their plans for expansion and consolidation in the markets. The expenditure on research and development is a capital expenditure which gets amortized over a period of time. While the amortization might help in firm’s book of accounts, they do influence the cash flow a bit adversely. Moreover, the research and development operates in an environment of implied demand uncertainty. There is a probability of the output not even reaching the market. Therefore, the costs of product design and development are increasing putting cost pressures on the firm.

 

At the same time, the firms are increasingly facing market pressures on the shelf life. The shelf life is rapidly shrinking. The clones that are emerging are threatening the original products and often act as disincentive to further research. Incidentally, there are reports from China which suggest clones in the market even before the original hits the market. The clone industry in China basically engages in reverse engineering to build their products and capture the market share. The costs of legal action against these pirate firms is too prohibitive for many entrepreneurs. Unless someone has a strong depth and scale in terms of resources and networks, it is virtually impossible to challenge the clones.

 

At the same time, the consumers too are willing to buy from the clones if cheaply priced. The consumers do not want a compromise on quality and yet want the goods to be offered at zero price. There is virtually a race towards zero in the global market. This would mean that the traditional models of business pricing would come up with limitations in this context. The firms have little control on the revenue. Most of the times, the firms are price takers in the market with little control. All they have to engage is reverse engineering in terms of meeting costs to the market price. The reverse engineering would put pressure on the cost side. Therefore, the firms have to come with solutions that address the cost side rather than the demand side.

 

The firms have to incur capital expenditure which they seek to convert into operational expenditure. This process is what culminated in the business models of outsourcing or offshoring etc. When the western firms decided to engage in contract manufacturing, it was this interplay of converting capital into operating expenditure that ruled the day. There is one firm which seeks to manufacture the products be it the shoes or clothes or consumer electronic goods among others. The firm in the West is only engaged in the branding exercise. As one of top industry honchos once remarked, the manufacturing process is a tedious chore which can best be outsourced. To firms like Apple, Nike, Adidas, Disney, Dell or many others, given their limited resources, they would seek to spend on branding rather than manufacturing. Apart from the trade-off between branding and manufacturing, there is essentially the cost angle that rules in favor of outsourcing. Walmart’s procurement from China too is continuum of that. Of course, the market structures that are primarily centered on monopsony or oligopsony at best, drive the firm’s decision making structures. In management jargons, the firms are engaged in what might be called the breakdown of the Porter’s value chain. Each element in the Porterian value chain become a output centre in themselves and create a sub-set of value chains.

 

Yet, this is only one part of the journey that the firms are engaged in. In their pursuit of profit maximization, the emphasis would be on a continuous reduction in costs. Therefore, they would with the research and development side too. There obviously exists a rationale for the product development side to be outsourced. The new models of innovation like open innovation among many others are essentially a justification of the same. There are firms which are engaged in design through contests. The firm wants to design a product. While there might be several reasons for opting to a contest for public consumption and management jargons, the reality or the underlying motivation is different. A design contest would encourage many to join. A few might emerge winners. They would be given a prize. The spinoff is however the firm gets a design for its products at minimum price. They have been able to reduce their research costs by significant quantum. Moreover, what the process would have done is the shift of the expenditure from capex to opex to extraordinary expenditure or non-recurring expenditure. Given the treatment of non-recurring or extraordinary expenditure in the firm’s financial statements, the position on the books of course would look far attractive.

 

The firms are constantly engaged in cost reduction.  Therefore when one looks at the models centered on collective intelligence, open innovation, outsourcing, wiki-floors, frugal engineering and many such others, each would represent a step in the firm’s pursuit to lowering costs when faced with pressures on the revenue front wherein the control they have is limited by the market presence.

 

 

 

 

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