A few days ago,
the Quad hosted the first summit at the leadership level. The Quad has been an
informal grouping of four countries having stakes in Indo-Pacific region. These
countries are United States, Japan, Australia and India. The groundwork for
Quad grouping had begun quite earlier, yet for a fairly long period of time in
the last decade, the moves were tentative. The exercises planned for navy and
other armed forces did hit roadblocks since Australia backtracked ostensibly
under the Chinese pressure. It was only in the last five or six years that Quad
has got a fresh lease of life. Under Donald Trump, the United States moved into
a sort of confrontation from a denial with China. As the move gathered speed to
counter China, the Quad became a tool. India too has been seeking to build up
some counter though officially denied towards China. Interestingly of the Quad
countries, it is only India that shares land borders with China and has had a
long standing conflict with it. India has been the only one that resisted the
Chinese initiatives like One Belt One Road which was nothing but colonial
exercise in disguise.
The grouping has
shied itself from claiming to be some kind of new NATO. NATO originated in the
post World War II era when the Soviets seemingly challenged the US. It was
essentially force to keep the counterparty at bay and continue with the balance
of power doctrine in the European continent, just that US replaced Britain as
the flank power on the West. China without doubt has emerged as the power in
its own right and seeks to use it unabashedly. It doesn’t pretend to follow
international rules and carries on its own when it comes to its interests. Not that
this is something surprising, but it remains unhesitant to use money to buy
influence in the global market. It was considerably helped by the movement of
the US manufacturing to its shore in search of lower costs. To add, the
political advantage of playing to the US gallery of being anti-Soviet helped it
to gain currency in the Cold War years. It did not mind being treated as some
sort of subservient in the Cold War and bid its time. It in a very soft and
implicit manner captured the Western institutions that would act as decision
influencers. Given its influence peddling, many Western countries as with
countries in the global South have been hostage to Chinese interests and
ambitions. In this context, despite the informal acclaim, the leadership summit
of the Quad is something significant.
The first
meeting of the Quad saw it delineating its priorities. These have manifested in
the form of the working groups. The first one without surprise was related to
tackling the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus. The plan is to produce the
US based vaccines in India with financing from Japan and helped in logistics by
Australia. While it might reinforce the perception of India being pharmacy of the
world, critics do point out of US seeking to take the glory while the hard work
being done by the others. Yet, it is an important step since it would help in
diversifying the supply chains away from China. However, given the US
propensity to deliver vaccines first to itself as is evident currently, one
must await how this plan would take off. If it were to take off only after US
fulfils its priorities domestically, it might not be sending a right signal of
providing global healthcare to the rest of the world.
Secondly, the
Quad leadership proposes to set up working group on climate change. This is a
radical transformation from the times of President Trump who had withdrawn from
the Paris accord. President Biden brings back the Obama era focus on climate
change. India has been strong on climate change in recent years. The focus now
is on being the leadership role in the solutions than the obstinate hurdle in
the guise of global North-South divide in the earlier years. India’s
transformation is somewhat significant in the climate change negotiations that
are underway. The Quad might be of significant help as India transits to clean
technologies in its bid to reduce greenhouse emissions.
The third
proposition has been to set up the working group on critical technologies. This
is perhaps the most important of the steps the Quad seem to be taking. India
has been kept away from accessing US technologies on various grounds. This might
see a shift with India gaining access to these technologies as it helps in
climbing the value curve. This occupies a greater import in view of the Chinese
quest for capturing the 5G space. Huawei has been facing flak in many countries
yet there is reluctance in banning the firm in its quest to monopolize 5G. As
the world seeks an alternative, it would be of importance for the Quad to come
together and collaborate in building the 5G network. While the US firms have
made some headway, Indian firms like Reliance too have been working in the
similar direction. Japan’s expertize in technology too would add lot of value
in the collaboration. India’s gain in this would learning the technological expertise
which would help in its own journey of capturing the top spaces in the Smiley
Curve. China might have captured the spaces in means that were perhaps not
above board but what cannot be denied is the outcome of their ventures. They have
managed to capture critical technologies and are now using against the West
itself. It is not something different in the way US captured the frontier technologies
from Britain in particular and Europe in general during the heady days of the
Industrial Revolution. Critics might point towards US getting a taste of its
own medicine. However, from the Indian point of view, the greater threat is
from China.
The summit has
avoided making any ostensible explicit references of being the military
alternative to China as such, yet its statements on the Indo-Pacific and South China
Sea are enough pointers towards its objectives in the long run. The Quad might
not be pointing to be a Indo-Pacific equivalent of the NATO with China
replacing the Soviet Union in the new Cold War, yet in the years ahead one
cannot rule it out. What it seems currently is the Quad summit is the first
step in creating a twenty first century Triple Entente. If the original Triple
Entente was a reaction to the European geo-political winds that eventually led
to the World War I, the current round would perhaps be the answer to the
Chinese attempt to change the geopolitical equations that have held steady over
the last few decades.
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