The very geography of India makes it
a permanent election season. There are elections round the clock in some or the
other part of the country. There are elections to the Parliament, there are
elections to the state assemblies. There are bye-elections to the Parliament or
State Assemblies. There are elections to local bodies, autonomous councils or
what not. Therefore, there is valid reason why the current government is keen
on having ‘One Nation, One Election’. It is not just the costs, but the productivity
lost in the election season and the perennial Model Code of Conduct in some
part of the country or the other. As with any year, 2021 too has its own set of
elections. Therefore, one is all set for the election season which is beginning
the current week in West Bengal and Assam and will also cover the states of
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Pondicherry. Besides, there are
by-elections scheduled both for Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha across the
different states and union territories.
There is an interesting twist in the
current elections. This election season was usually the least favorable for the
ruling BJP. Given its limited base, the expected gains were minimal. The party
used to have least stakes from this cycle. There used to be a hope of making
some mark in Assam and perhaps to lesser extent in the others, but they
remained on paper. Yet, as one goes into the election season, BJP seems to be
having the maximum stake. They are out to defend their government in Assam and
are making a serious challenge and by many accounts are front leaders in West
Bengal. If the BJP manages to unseat Mamta, it would mark the BJP’s grand entry
in the East, the home of the Jan Sangh founder Dr. Shyama Prasad Mukherjee. In Assam
they have a government to defend and it might be a significant election for
their strongman Himanta Biswa Sarma as he seeks to breach higher echelons in
national politics.
Interestingly, the BJP is also
making considerable inroads in Pondicherry, albeit with defections from the
Congress. They are contesting in alliance with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu while they
are again attempting to make a mark in the state of Kerala. While the BJP has
low stakes per se, it would nevertheless be important for it to gain quite a
few seats to become a serious player in the future. The BJP might be contesting
just twenty seats in Tamil Nadu, yet a good strike rate would help it enhance
the bargaining power in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the next
cycle of assembly elections. In Kerala while they have hit the double digit
vote share, they need to increase the same as also make gains in terms of
seats. They made their debut in 2016 with a victory in Nemom, the question this
time would be whether they would consolidate and make further gains. However,
looking at the scenario, the state will continue to elude the party.
The Congress used to have some
stakes in this election. Yet, in the current round, they are likely to emerge
as the losers. They do not have much hope in Assam inspite of the Mahajot while
the West Bengal hopes are rested on an expectation or rather a hope, albeit
however faint it is, of a hung assembly with the third front key to the power. The
DMK in Tamil Nadu ensured the Congress would contest only in 25 seats, perhaps
the Bihar experience of Congress underperformance costing the RJD a shot at
power. What is of considerable import is the party is struggling in Kerala.
Kerala for the last forty years has rotated alternatively between Congress led
UDF and the CPM led LDF. The current trends seem to be pointing towards a possible
LDF retention of power. This, if happens, would hit the Congress severely.
The Congress and especially its
first family have huge stakes. In case of Congress failure to win a single
state, it would begin another round of dissent against the Nehru-Gandhi family.
There would be voices that would begin calling for the change in the party. The
first family would no longer have the luxury of being above board. They might
face challenge something unprecedented in the party. There would be calls
perhaps for change of leadership or at least for the first family to assume
leadership on a full time basis. The voices of G-23 which were getting muted
might see a fresh lease of life with more people joining them. In this context,
it would be an existential crisis for the party. The space would then be sought
to be captured by the other forces including the Nationalist Congress Party,
the Aam Aadmi Party or even the Muslim groups like Owaisi or Siddique or Muslim
League.
To the regional parties in Tamil
Nadu, it is the DMK which has a greater stake. A defeat for the party might put
it in peril since it would be the third consecutive defeat for the party. AIADMK
might be facing anti-incumbency and also possibly challenges to leadership post
election in the event of a defeat. If AIADMK were to win, then the CM E
Palaniswamy would become more powerful. On the other hand, a defeat might lead
to calls for Shashikala to take over the party. DMK too is undergoing struggles
which might be overlooked if Stalin manages to retain power, else the
intra-party battles might turn ugly. In Kerala, the LDF might be sitting
pretty, yet given the intricacies of Kerala politics, nothing can be said till
the last minute. It is the final bastion of the Left and thus has more than
enough stakes to retain power. What is of significance would be the position of
the Muslim League in the event of an UDF defeat. The Muslim say in the
government would be over. It might result in the party breaking away from UDF
either charting its own course or shifting to LDF. This would have more than
enough impact on Rahul Gandhi’s fortunes in Wayanad, the seat he chose faced
with the threat from Amethi.
As one looks at the preview of the
elections currently underway, they will in all likelihood set in motion some
new dynamics in the Indian polity. This dynamic mostly related to the place of
the Congress in the political circuit would be unsettled and possibly new order
might begin to emerge. Therefore for this very reason, the elections would be watched
with keen interest.
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