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Showing posts with the label COVID-19 vaccine

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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Indian Vaccination: What Next?

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  The second wave of the Chinese virus seem to be abating. India has recorded a daily positivity rate of under five percent over the last two weeks. The World Health Organization (WHO) points to this rate as the minimum eligibility for the economy to be unlocked. The unlocking process has begun in varying degrees. In the lockdown of 2020, the posts had repeatedly suggested of adopting a calibrated unlocking district by district based on the positivity rate. The idea had generally found low receptivity. There were arguments that the economy cannot function in an isolated environment and it had to be either opened fully or locked fully. Yet those same people who were so vociferously opposing it last year are now in the forefront of welcoming especially the strategy being adopted in Uttar Pradesh. Conceding the Rusi Karanjia theory of consistency being the virtue of donkeys, it might be seen as vindication of those critics of district wise unlocking are now slowly moving away from being d
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Compulsory Vaccination and Self Interest

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  Now that there is some certainty in the vaccine policy announced by the government of India, it remains to be seen how the process would be carried out going forward. The government has set itself an ambitious target of vaccinating every eligible adult in India by the end of this year. The target seems quite unrealistic especially going by the current pace of the process. The pace was picking up in April before the government decided to engage in some competitive politicking which led to the chaos and unavailability of the vaccines. Moreover, the hesitancy on the part of the government to order vaccines beforehand too played a role in vaccine shortages. The government had clearly found itself on a wrong foot when the second wave stuck. The demand for vaccines multiplied manifold but there were no vaccines. There was perhaps no homework on the part of the government to cater to such eventuality. There still exists a denial over the prospective third wave. Any derailment of vaccine pro
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India's Vaccination Drive: What Next?

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  India seems to have seen the worst off the second wave of the Chinese pandemic. In cities like Delhi, the pandemic seems to have abated with the same pace in which it materialized in April. It is perhaps a mystery on the behavior of the pandemic in terms of its spread and consequent contraction in an equally swift time. While the country is recovering slowly from the pandemic, the vaccination program seems to be picking some pace. The recovery from the pandemic might be slow given the convexities involved, the pact of vaccination would determine the pace of recovery. If the vaccination pace is high, the chances of breakthrough infections and consequent mutations might decrease. In fact, it is in the global self-interest that the vaccination be carried out at a very fast pace. The global vaccination programs are still subject to the geopolitics and protectionism, despite the US announcing lifting of barriers in terms of supply of vaccine raw materials as also with export of excess vac
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Indian Vaccine Story

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  The vaccination process in India continues to fumble on. The process had begun relatively smooth but soon encountered troubles partly due to the vaccine hesitancy thus certain wastage coupled with the second wave of the Wuhan pandemic which devastated urban and the rural alike. It was aggravated by the shortage of vaccines. India had approved two vaccines, yet their supply was limited and could not be scaled up. While the Covishield being marketed by Serum Institute, but developed by Oxford and Astra Zeneca, was also to be exported to meet its global commitments the Covaxin developed by the domestic vaccine producer Bharat Biotech could not be scaled up because of technical issues. The Sputnik, developed by Russian scientists and marketed by Dr. Reddy’s Labs too is facing issues of manufacturing, which is likely to start in a month or so.   There was no doubt as mentioned in the previous columns too that the government strategy on vaccines lacked homework. There has been a talk a
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Opening Up the Indian Vaccine Policy

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  The second wave of the Chinese flu is not showing signs of decline. There are a few who are talking about the peak being hit in Maharashtra but there is very little evidence of the same. Maybe in the next few weeks, one could observe any decline. While there are quite a few experts who are talking about the peak being in three weeks and then a slow plateau and decline the cases, these opinions are bound to be taken with certain skepticism. The plan must be to prepare for the worst case scenario rather than the optimistic scenario. In fact, one of the drawbacks of the Indian policy making apparatus has been the plans based on optimism rather than worst case scenario. Indian vaccination approvals too was based on perhaps the minimum need to vaccinate a certain mass to break the chain. There was no realization that the chain could be broken only if all the Indians are vaccinated or at least those eligible. This has set back the process of vaccination and perhaps in some ways did aggrava
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Lockdowns, Utility, Costs and the Second Wave of the Chinese Pandemic

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  India is facing a second wave of corona virus induced pandemic. The cases are rising quite sharply. Hardly any state has been left untouched. The experts feel the peak is a little distance away. The tests have to increase and definitely have shown an increase. The spread is faster compared to the first wave. The cases are already increasing in excess of 1.5 lakhs per day compared to a peak of around 1 lakhs in the first wave. The vaccinations are steady, yet given the sheer size of India, they appear inadequate. India is vaccinating perhaps at the highest rate in absolute numbers but still they fall way behind the required rate to attain herd immunity in the shortest period of time. At this stage, there are again voices all around calling for a lockdown.   There is increasing view that Maharashtra will have to go in for a lockdown maybe for a couple of weeks. Despite the disagreement with the coalition partners, it would be safe to assume that Maharashtra is left with no option b
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IS India the Vaccine Hold Out?

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  The West can never countenance India doing something good. They try to dig out a dark line in the brightest of the skies. They had colonized India. They cannot fathom, that a country that was long their vassal could stand up on its feet but more importantly could take the lead in many different global dimensions. This was despite numerous hurdles that were placed in its journey. This treatment is never applied to China or Japan for that matter. India is something wrong unless it follows the Western dictums in every domain. The tragedy is not the Western treatment of India but the very fact that Indians themselves diss themselves. There is vast section that thrives on finding rot in the Indian society, economy, business and what not. They love to run down Indian achievements.   In the Chinese pandemic, it is India which has emerged as the pharmacy of the world. In the initial days, it was India which led the world in exporting masks, protection equipment, HCQ tablets, paracetamols
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Quad Summit: A New Triple Entente?

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  A few days ago, the Quad hosted the first summit at the leadership level. The Quad has been an informal grouping of four countries having stakes in Indo-Pacific region. These countries are United States, Japan, Australia and India. The groundwork for Quad grouping had begun quite earlier, yet for a fairly long period of time in the last decade, the moves were tentative. The exercises planned for navy and other armed forces did hit roadblocks since Australia backtracked ostensibly under the Chinese pressure. It was only in the last five or six years that Quad has got a fresh lease of life. Under Donald Trump, the United States moved into a sort of confrontation from a denial with China. As the move gathered speed to counter China, the Quad became a tool. India too has been seeking to build up some counter though officially denied towards China. Interestingly of the Quad countries, it is only India that shares land borders with China and has had a long standing conflict with it. India
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One Crore Vaccinations- What Next?

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  It has taken 35 days for India to reach one crore vaccination mark as it battles the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus. It indicates roughly three lakh vaccines being administered every day. The second round of vaccinations are underway. The coverage of frontline workers is expanding and hope to achieve 90%+ mark in a couple of weeks or so. It is perhaps with anticipation that the Indian population looks to expanding the vaccination drive to the next phase of the elderly and the vulnerable. There was no doubt given the frontline workers have performed over the last year or so in combating the pandemic, they needed to be administered the vaccine at first priority. The doctors and other healthcare workers are needed to combat with preparedness in case of any eventuality. There is further no doubt that there needed to be observed on the effects of the vaccine in terms of immediate side effects or so. It would need some time before the health care authorities could unearth some insig
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the Great Indian Vaccine Drive

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  India has begun the vaccination drive against the Chinese virus induced COVID-19 pandemic. Given the population size of nearly 1.4 billion, it would perhaps be the largest vaccination drive ever undertaken. The fact that it has to be undertaken in a very short time say about less than a year, the ambitions would be sheer audacity given the logistics involved in such a mammoth effort. It is not just about production of vaccines, but going beyond into the quality control, the transport from the plants to the different storage centres further to be distributed to the states and the districts and then to the vaccination centres. To add, the supply must be continuous with little disruption. The conditions for transporting the vaccines would have to be adhered to. Furthermore, the preparations at the each of the centres in terms of administering the vaccine apart from training the vaccinators itself would be daunting. There is furthermore need to coordinate with the people in fixing their
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The Political Decisions and the Corona Vaccine

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  “War is too important to be left to the generals”. This statement is something often talked about and bandied about when discussion arise about international relations. Likewise, the current situation makes it apt to add another adage ‘Pandemic is too important to be left to the doctors”. Without doubt, doctors are the frontline warriors in the battles against the Chinese pandemic that is raging across the globe. It is just not the lives that it has taken that matters but the livelihoods it has disrupted. The light at the end of the tunnel though often comes on the horizon but remains elusive. There is no doubt, patience is wearing thin among the population. Disruption is galore all around. The economic growth is in the negative zone with many economies recording fall in excess of 20% and above. The world is likely to be in recession for more time. The lockdown seems to be generating diminishing returns. It was effective when the disease was confined to few clusters but when it has e
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