India is facing a second wave of
corona virus induced pandemic. The cases are rising quite sharply. Hardly any
state has been left untouched. The experts feel the peak is a little distance
away. The tests have to increase and definitely have shown an increase. The spread
is faster compared to the first wave. The cases are already increasing in
excess of 1.5 lakhs per day compared to a peak of around 1 lakhs in the first
wave. The vaccinations are steady, yet given the sheer size of India, they
appear inadequate. India is vaccinating perhaps at the highest rate in absolute
numbers but still they fall way behind the required rate to attain herd
immunity in the shortest period of time. At this stage, there are again voices
all around calling for a lockdown.
There is increasing view that
Maharashtra will have to go in for a lockdown maybe for a couple of weeks. Despite
the disagreement with the coalition partners, it would be safe to assume that
Maharashtra is left with no option but to go for a lockdown. Chattisgarh is
already in a lockdown. Madhya Pradesh might not be in a full lockdown but
certainly, it is in a state of quite an escalated lockdown in many cities and
districts. In Maharashtra too, the state is in virtual lockdown with only the official
announcement expected. The elections are going on in West Bengal. One might sit
in judgment of whether the public rallies by leaders offer the best image to demonstrate
the virtues of mask and social distancing but that is another matter. While states
are gearing for lockdowns in varying degrees, it must be examined the merits of
the same at this stage.
Lockdowns offer perhaps in theory the
best way to combat the pandemic since it would prevent people to people interaction
and thus reduce the spread. The European second wave is largely being combated
through a series of lockdowns. Britain has vaccinated nearly half its population
at least partially, but its control of the second wave also came largely
through the lockdown it had enforced for most part of December through March. Therefore
lockdown gave the authorities the time to vaccinate significant amount of people
thus reducing mortality. The other European countries too would have to factor
in the same. Their success in lockdowns easing the crisis would rest by and
large on their ability to scale up their vaccination programs. The current
round of vaccinations in Europe does not however give such a confidence. In this
context, it might be pondered over the US strategy where there is no official
lockdown at least in most parts. US of course is reporting higher cases and
also mortality rates but they are expected given the economy being in
relatively open mode.
Lockdowns have an impact when they
are enforced pretty early. It is not the correctness or an evaluation of cost
benefit analysis in total that matters but the swiftness in which the action is
taken that matters. In India, since all regions are not uniformly affected, the
national lockdown might not be a feasible solution at this point. Each geography
or perhaps a sub-geography requires a customized or differential treatment in
its own way. There might be instances where lockdown has to happen irrespective
of the options or the costs it might incur. For instance, in Maharashtra, there
is very little option other than a hard lockdown irrespective of the economic
consequences. Europe too had faced the situation and they had to bite the
bullet. The problem with Maharashtra is the lack of leadership. Leadership is
about taking decisions whether good or bad. The decisions must be swift and
timely. What one observes from Maharashtra is the lack of certainty over the
decision making. There is too much of an uncertainty and hesitancy. The leaders
must not hesitate to take a step if they feel is appropriate. The fact this is
missing in Maharashtra is aggravating the problems. The other states too might
have to confront with such scenarios sooner or later unless they are able to
tame the wave.
Yet accompanying the lockdown should
be a few sine qua non. The lockdown would be successful if it manages to localize
the pandemic. If the pandemic were to spread after the lockdown is lifted, it
would only be postponing the inevitable rather than killing the virus. The lockdowns
must be accompanied by high level of testing. For instance, if Maharashtra were
to go in for a hard lockdown, it must be accompanied by around 3-4 lakh tests
per day over a fortnight or so to reduce the positivity rate. It is only at
very high levels of testing that the positivity rate will start to reduce with
passage of time. The labs must be prepared to process such a high level of
tests in short period of time. Alternatively, the lockdown must be accompanied
by an increase in vaccination to a significant magnitude. If India were to go
in for a lockdown, it must be accompanied by at least 1.5-2 crore vaccinations
per day over a two to three week period. This would translate into around 25-30
crore vaccination doses in the said period.
Yet as one glances at the situation,
it is evident that neither are possible in the short duration period. In fact,
the last lockdown imposed a year ago, postponed the inevitable rather than the
escape of the inevitable. The reason was lack of tests at that moment and
perhaps that was due to lack of infrastructure in terms of testing. If there
existed a similar infrastructure today, the testing would have been in the
order of nearly 10 lakhs per day, the pandemic could have been prevented from
spreading. Today, the problem is different. It mandates a localized lockdowns
wherever needed. In fact, people movement must be curbed into bare necessity. Yet
along with the curbs or micro lockdowns where needed, there must be an increase
of vaccinations. The rise in vaccinations would go in quite a long way to
tempering the magnitude of the second wave. The direction of second wave might
remain strong for some time to come but what is essential is to curb the
magnitude and reduce the mortality rate. That should be the immediate objective.
If not, the lockdown would have little utility but high costs.
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