India is in the grip of the second
wave of the pandemic induced by the virus originated in China. The cases are
hitting records which were unseen in the previous wave. India has now recorded
more than two thousand deaths per day. Though the death rate is lower relative
to the first wave, the fact that deaths happen around a week or two after
testing positive cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it would be premature to
discuss the deaths in comparison to the first wave. There has been a lot of
talk about the reasons for the second wave. While there might reasons one too
many, what cannot be discounted is the fact that once the wave strikes, there
is very little one can do other than cessation of economic and social life.
Britain has been able to come out of the second wave thanks to the lockdown accompanied
by the rapid increase in vaccinations. Europe is still in the grip of the
lockdown. It seems inevitable that India too would have to go in for a
lockdown.
One of the reasons why India did not
fare badly in the previous wave was there was an early lockdown followed by
cautious unlock. This gave time for health infrastructure to cope up while also
ensuring people do not interact in social life frequently. The migrant crisis
did increase infection but to limited extent. The major reason for the second
wave seems to be an absence of lockdown. The second wave has been attributed to
the complacency of the governments. There is certainly merit in the assertion
that government declared a premature victory in the battle over the pandemic. All
that was needed was some lapse somewhere. It was provided in Maharashtra
followed by Delhi. The migrant movement from Maharashtra to other parts of the country
spread the wave into Uttar Pradesh among others. While many parts of the
country had successfully reduced the positivity rate to under 1%,, Maharashtra
and Kerala continued to report high positives. There was sheer complacency in
those two states both known for PR activities than administrative efficiency. The
same went for Delhi too.
Contrary to the perception that election
rallies caused the second wave along with the Kumbh Mela, it is the complacency
on the state governments that resulted in the wave. In fact, the election bound
states perform comparatively better relative to the non-election bound states. The
ability to control the virus seems to be absent at least in Maharashtra or
Chattisgarh whose Chief Minister spent more time in Assam rather than managing
the state of affairs in his home state. Election rallies does definitely send a
wrong message. The people normally frame their decisions based on the availability
heuristic. As such any information on the pandemic is based on what is available.
The easily available information are the election rallies in West Bengal or the
Kumbh Mela in Uttarakhand. In fact, the latter state continues to show lower
positivity rate relative to many other states. Therefore, Kumbh as a
superspreader event has to be taken with caution more so given the COVID negative
report was mandatory for attending Kumbh.
The primary reason for the increased
spread is the absence of any restrictions or at least in terms of adherence to
norms. With lax enforcement of norms, it was expected that a wave once struck
would magnify or in other words proceed with increasing returns to scale. It might
be moot to talk about the duration of the spread but without a lockdown in some
degree and enforcement of mask norms would have to happen if the wave has to be
controlled. There is shortage of oxygen and other medicines which is to be
expected. Given their relatively short shelf life, no one can store for
infinite time in anticipation of a rainy day. Therefore, when there is an
excess demand for a short period relative to supply, there would exist a lag
before the supply matches demand. This is what is being observed in the context
of oxygen shortages or for that matter shortage of other drugs. People who get
access to these drugs or oxygen will tend to store in anticipation of worst
case scenario relating to hoarding thus an induced supply demand mismatch.
It might be tempting to blame Modi
for the current state but then the blame would be erroneous if one were to look
at the wave in isolation. Neither the rallies in Bengal nor the Kumbh Mela are
responsible per se. if Modi had erred, it is somewhere else. He perhaps
depended too much on the two vaccines rather than expanding the basket of
vaccines. If the basket of vaccines is sufficiently large, there would be
little reason to panic and the process could have been opened up earlier for
all the age groups. Secondly, the international obligations meant that India
had to export. The exports in many cases were symbolic and this could have
avoided if the basket of vaccines was higher. The vaccine manufacturers could
have got additional funding much earlier rather than at the present. This would
have led to expansion of capacity and thus the relatively higher pace of
vaccination. It is a different matter that vaccine hesitancy is responsible for
current round of deaths. Had people got vaccinated when their age groups became
eligible, at least significant amount of current deaths would have been
avoided.
The error thus would lay perhaps in
complacency of not expecting a worst case scenario and perhaps plotting for the
minimum required in terms of breaking the chain. In addition, the images of
senior ministers including Amit Shah campaigning without a mask sent a very
wrong signal when people were being fined for not wearing a mask in other
places. Secondly, the statements of the Health Secretary on the needs and wants
was unwarranted and reflected arrogance. Similar was the tweets from the Principal Economic
Adviser who almost stated that every Indian should be prepared to contract the
infection. Rather than sending a message of reassurance and empathy, it was
arrogance that came out. PM Modi could have put an end to it, but he chose to
engage in a pep talk and the action came later as a forethought. Therefore,
contrary to perception, it is not in the election rallies or other mass events
where the error lie but in not preparing the preventive measures to enable
quick scaling up wherein the government could be hauled up for error.
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