The second wave of the Chinese flu
is not showing signs of decline. There are a few who are talking about the peak
being hit in Maharashtra but there is very little evidence of the same. Maybe in
the next few weeks, one could observe any decline. While there are quite a few
experts who are talking about the peak being in three weeks and then a slow plateau
and decline the cases, these opinions are bound to be taken with certain
skepticism. The plan must be to prepare for the worst case scenario rather than
the optimistic scenario. In fact, one of the drawbacks of the Indian policy making
apparatus has been the plans based on optimism rather than worst case scenario.
Indian vaccination approvals too was based on perhaps the minimum need to
vaccinate a certain mass to break the chain. There was no realization that the
chain could be broken only if all the Indians are vaccinated or at least those
eligible. This has set back the process of vaccination and perhaps in some ways
did aggravate the second wave.
The government has now opened up the
vaccination process for all those who are above eighteen years of age. In addition,
the government has permitted the vaccination producers to sell half their production
to states or in the open market. The states have been now empowered to deal
with the vaccine producers directly and negotiate on the prices. They can also
push forward certain priority groups based on their requirements. In addition many
hospitals too would tie up with the vaccine producers and offer vaccines at
pre-declared prices. This was a step that was long belated and perhaps should
be welcomed as something better late than never.
The policy that is being adopted is
certainly pragmatic. The vaccinations in the priority age group have not taken
off in the expected manner. The number of vaccinations are relatively lower. In
fact, on some days, the total vaccinations are below 2 million per day which
hardly does justice to a country like India. While India has been the fastest
to reach certain milestones in absolute terms, the fact remains that India has
to vaccinate 1.4 billion people in the shortest possible time which is no joke.
Therefore, there must be a strategy that would encourage both producers as also
the demand side to take the vaccinations. The government announced an
accelerated policy of vaccine approvals for foreign players. As pointed out in
the previous posts, these measures should have come very early. In the current round,
there is a possibility of Sputnik, J&J and Novovax vaccines hitting the
market relatively fast. This also would free up the Serum Institute to open up
to meet its contractual obligations abroad. Thus it would be critical in terms
of India’s vaccine diplomacy.
The government was visibly under
pressure. But the government equally wanted to demonstrate that it would not
bow down to the pressure. There was certainly a political angle to the state’s
demand for allowing vaccines to be made eligible for all age groups. The government
wanted to be seen as resisting such pressure. Moreover, the states have been
poor bargainers in terms of medical equipment required so far. The states have
been dependent on the centre even for medicines like Remdesivir or even oxygen.
In that context, the state’s ability to negotiate for lower prices is something
debatable. The centre however has decided to call the bluff. The onus now is on
the states. If the centre could get the vaccines at around Rs. 150 per dose,
the states would be under pressure to negotiate for similar prices. In case
they do not, they might again depend on the Centre which would vindicate the
stand of the Centre. The centre wanted some time before it opened up for all. Since
the vaccination rates were low, it decided to engage in some drive which was
more a formality in the decision to open up for the rest.
The government should have opened up
for foreign players much earlier. In all likelihood, the players like Pfizer or
Moderna might negotiate only with the Centre and would need certain pre-orders
before it could get into the market. It is unlikely that they will come to
India anytime soon. There was an opportunity to tap Pfizer few months back but
the opportunity was lost. It does not matter who was to be blamed but the fact
is India has to do with a smaller basket. As being suggested in the past posts,
India needs a larger and diverse basket of vaccines to meet its increasing needs.
At this moment, India should go whole hog in this regard. The capacity should
increase to at least ten million doses per day. In such a scenario, it is worth
to reiterate that India will need at least 10 months to vaccinate its entire
population.
The decision to open up the market
would act as an incentive to which the vaccine producers as well as major
hospitals would respond in big measure. This is where they have to book the
profits and in turn would result in reinvestment for higher capacity. Socialist
controls would result in deterioration of situation. As such the government has
done something right. At this moment there would however be a question on the vaccine
hesitancy or otherwise in the younger age groups. It is not the individual
hesitancy that matters but the group that matters. The age group is one which
is working age group and firms would be more than keen to have their employees
vaccinated. Therefore the firms would engage in drives that would vaccinate
their employees and their families with some of them might do it for free. This
would be the biggest driver for the vaccination process in the country. It is
about the choice to get vaccinated or face a loss of job thus the livelihood. Faced
with this trade-off, the choice would invariably be a no-brainer. It is a
different matter that so far, the response has been muted. The hospitals themselves
have not made it compulsory for their employees to get vaccinated. Similar is the
case of many other government organizations including the police force. This is
something that has to be avoided with the private sector. If the private sector
participates in full force, India’s vaccination drive would pick up fast and
set the end game for the Chinese pandemic that has wrought havoc over the last
year or so.
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