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Showing posts with the label India's vaccine policy

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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Indian Vaccination: What Next?

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  The second wave of the Chinese virus seem to be abating. India has recorded a daily positivity rate of under five percent over the last two weeks. The World Health Organization (WHO) points to this rate as the minimum eligibility for the economy to be unlocked. The unlocking process has begun in varying degrees. In the lockdown of 2020, the posts had repeatedly suggested of adopting a calibrated unlocking district by district based on the positivity rate. The idea had generally found low receptivity. There were arguments that the economy cannot function in an isolated environment and it had to be either opened fully or locked fully. Yet those same people who were so vociferously opposing it last year are now in the forefront of welcoming especially the strategy being adopted in Uttar Pradesh. Conceding the Rusi Karanjia theory of consistency being the virtue of donkeys, it might be seen as vindication of those critics of district wise unlocking are now slowly moving away from being d
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India's COVID Waves

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  India’s second wave of the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus seems to continue unabated. The experts are forecasting a peak in a day or two. There are some positive signs however feeble they might be about the plateau of cases in a few states. Yet, the devastation seems to ravage. It would nice in statistics to talk about peak and plateau and flattening of the curve. It would be impersonal in statistics to discuss these terms. Yet to those who are suffering from the pandemic and those who have lost their lives and those who have lost their loved ones, it is a different thing altogether. The wreckage it has created besides the impact on the people’s psyche might take years before some normalcy might return. There is in all likelihood an increase in the cases impacting mental health which might not be easy to tackle around. There seems to be around a corner a mental health crisis across the country and perhaps globally. India has been facing the worse in the last month or so especi
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Opening Up the Indian Vaccine Policy

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  The second wave of the Chinese flu is not showing signs of decline. There are a few who are talking about the peak being hit in Maharashtra but there is very little evidence of the same. Maybe in the next few weeks, one could observe any decline. While there are quite a few experts who are talking about the peak being in three weeks and then a slow plateau and decline the cases, these opinions are bound to be taken with certain skepticism. The plan must be to prepare for the worst case scenario rather than the optimistic scenario. In fact, one of the drawbacks of the Indian policy making apparatus has been the plans based on optimism rather than worst case scenario. Indian vaccination approvals too was based on perhaps the minimum need to vaccinate a certain mass to break the chain. There was no realization that the chain could be broken only if all the Indians are vaccinated or at least those eligible. This has set back the process of vaccination and perhaps in some ways did aggrava
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