India’s second wave of the pandemic
induced by the Chinese virus seems to continue unabated. The experts are
forecasting a peak in a day or two. There are some positive signs however
feeble they might be about the plateau of cases in a few states. Yet, the
devastation seems to ravage. It would nice in statistics to talk about peak and
plateau and flattening of the curve. It would be impersonal in statistics to
discuss these terms. Yet to those who are suffering from the pandemic and those
who have lost their lives and those who have lost their loved ones, it is a
different thing altogether. The wreckage it has created besides the impact on
the people’s psyche might take years before some normalcy might return. There is
in all likelihood an increase in the cases impacting mental health which might
not be easy to tackle around. There seems to be around a corner a mental health
crisis across the country and perhaps globally. India has been facing the worse
in the last month or so especially given the population size and density. The first
wave was slow to hit curbed largely by the lockdown and thus enough time
existed for infrastructure to build up. The second wave did not offer such
luxuries. The states hesitated for a lockdown given the economic costs. Yet the
human costs in terms of lives lost to the pandemic seems to be very high.
The crux remains there is no algorithm
to forecast a correlation between the infection and the likelihood of its severity.
Most of the educated guesses if one might call it point to few high risk groups
but very little beyond it. In fact, no conclusive studies exist on the degree
of severity in correlation with viral exposure. There is no study conclusive enough
to point out linkages between viral load at the time of testing and the
progress of the disease. While there are studies which point towards higher
mortality rate among the older population, the current wave is pointing towards
a high mortality even among the younger groups. Nearly a fourth of deaths every
day are of those who are below fifty. In this context, the universal vaccination
is almost sine qua non. Yet there are little signs of India progressing towards
the same. The government seems to be content with vaccinating a small
percentage of people whom it considers vulnerable based on what was projected
last year rather than building its priorities based on present. One would have
to look at the opportunity cost of these decisions especially in terms of human
lives lost which could have been saved by vaccination that was timely and
effective.
India might be aspiring to be a
superpower yet when one examines the true state of affairs, it does not seem
anywhere near it. The health care system has found itself exposed over the last
month or so and this itself was sufficient for homilies being branded on how
India remains a vestige of third world country rather than an emerging power. While
China seems to have built large hospitals equipped to handle thousands of
patients within days, India has been struggling to increase the bed capacity by
even a fraction. A large number of lives lost have been due to the inadequacies
of the healthcare system rather than the disease itself. The comparison between
India and China definitely takes into account the low reliability and
credibility of data in China. While China has been testing cities in a matter
of days something even Australia has been doing, India is struggling for
testing even a few lakhs in the whole of country. Rather than adopt quick-fire
rapid antigen tests, India has been pushing for RT-PCR tests which offering
higher credibility are notoriously slow. In these times, speed is important. Last
time, the swift action of the lockdown did save numerous lives. The current
round has been marred more by inaction and lethargy and perhaps obstinacy in
following one method rather than flexibility and agility to the changing
environment.
There is some evidence that states
like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, etc. have peaked or at least
plateaued. Uttar Pradesh and Delhi too seems to have plateaued even though
there is volatility and Delhi does register a very high positive rate.
Karnataka does not seem to show any signs of respite and seemingly the
apparatus seems to have collapsed. The same might hold well with Kerala and Goa
with the latter reporting positivity rates in excess of 50%. Tamil Nadu and
Andhra Pradesh both have controlled fairly well despite the former having a
near lame duck government in the long drawn post-election pre-counting period. The
states in the North East especially Tripura and Assam are holding out well with
the former being the leader in terms of vaccination. Despite high vaccination
per million, the small Union Territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands,
Lakshadweep and Ladakh (small in terms of population) seem to register high cases.
The experts are of the opinion while the peak might be in a day or two at the
national level, it might differ across states. There is a possibility that some
states might register a peak perhaps later this month. There seems to be an
opinion among the experts that the pandemic might subside by June and the
trough achieved in February might be attained by the first week of July.
Meanwhile there is already talk of a
third wave. The principal scientific adviser to the government himself has
admitted the possibility as have a few Chief Ministers of states. This is
adding to the panic. While there is a need for reassurance, empathy, calming
down the panic, these announcements though well meaning can have unintended
consequences. The current round of handling does not seem to inspire confidence
in the people over the third wave. Unless some drastic rehaul happens and the vaccination
process gains significant momentum, there is little likelihood of India
combating the third wave with minimal damage. If India has to be the superpower
it aspires to be, it needs to get its act together immediately. Else the damage
would be long lasting leaving scars for a long time.
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