Pinrayi Games

 

Kerala Chief Minister Pinrayi Vijayan created history when he became the first to retain power in the state in more than forty years. The state has seen rotation of power between the two fronts, the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) over the last forty years. The ruling LDF not only retained power but did in a comprehensive manner winning more than ninety seats in the 140 member assembly. The Congress led UDF bit dust which perhaps might lead to realignment of forces within the state. Interestingly, the election campaign on corruption scandals especially the gold smuggling case did not find traction with the voters. The involvement of the top leadership of the ruling coalition did not seem to have influenced the voters. The Chief Minister was seen as a benevolent patriarch trying to handle the COVID-19 pandemic induced by the Wuhan virus. It did not apparently matter that Kerala performed relatively worse in terms of number of cases detected. It did register very few deaths but there do exist doubts over the treatment of deaths attributed to COVID or otherwise. Yet, for all the shortcomings or otherwise, the outcome that matters is the Left registering the victory yet again in Kerala.

 

The churning in Kerala might see Left in power for a fairly long period of time. In this context, something of note was the formation of the Cabinet and the Council of Ministers. The interesting part was the dropping of almost all ministers of the previous government and inducting fresh blood in the government. It was certainly surprising at least prima facie over dropping of the Health Minister Ms. Shailaja who had attained a sort of ‘rockstar’ status over her handling of the pandemic. It is widely believed that her achievements were more in smart public relations (PR) she did with the pliant media than anything on the ground if the numbers were to go by. There are calls from within the left intellectual system itself to induct her back into the government. There are already whispers on the attitude of the Chief Minister over the selection of the government. It seems the Health Minister was more popular than the Chief Minister if the outrage were to be decoded. Yet, the omission perhaps should not surprise in hindsight. Also of importance is the Chief Minister’s decision to induct his son in law into the government, something unprecedented in the Left circles.

 

The Left in general does not allow personality cults to develop in theory. In practice however, it is different. For instance, Bengal was more or less synonymous with Jyoti Basu. Yet there was a party line that was strong and could compel the powerful of the leaders to toe the line. There was an inherent tension which they would term constructive tension between the party and the government. The line seems to have disappeared in Kerala. Shailaja might have paid for the PR. Her personality cult for reasons good or bad seem to have had negative impact on the Left decision making apparatus. It could be perhaps Pinrayi was seeing her as a rival but that would be a bit farfetched. It was conceivable that the functioning of the Health Minister was perhaps not in sync with the demands of the government and the apparatchiks. She had to pay the price for seeking to cultivate a rockstar image. Yet a deeper level, the ministry represents the signature of the Chief Minister something not very common in the Left circles. There are more than enough reasons for the same.

 

The Left is almost dying in India at least in political terms. Kerala is the last bastion and it is Pinrayi who has managed to buck the trend and win the elections. The campaign was centred around him and not around the ideology. Naturally, he now gains an upper hand. The Bengal line more or less has become extinct with the Left drawing a blank in the recent polls. The party politburo is full of those who cannot even win a panchayat election on their own. In this context, their influence would be reduced. It is Pinrayi who would call the shots by being the only party chief minister. The party might have to depend on his government for funds. Rather than Pinrayi needing the party, it is the other way round. Naturally, the effects of the same are getting visible.

 

Pinrayi is perhaps consolidating his power and would naturally expect the Kerala unit to revolve around him. In this context, it would be nothing but a new regional force centered on a personality with little influence of the cadre or the ideology. The cadre would have to revolve around the leader than being an independent autonomous unit. The induction of his son in law is clear signal that Pinrayi is cultivating his successor. In that sense it would be no different from other regional parties per se. In this context, it would be pertinent to decode a few trends

 

Firstly, Pinrayi will in all likelihood emerge as not just the face of CPI-M in Kerala but CPI-M itself would become appendage to his ambitions. He is beginning certainly a movement towards nominating his successor and perhaps create a party around himself. Anyone remotely likely to challenge him would perhaps be sidelined. The party would be a rubber stamp to his ambitions. Shailaja might have been the first casualty but there could be more heads that are likely to be rolled. It is moving towards a family based party. The left intellectual ecosystem might frown at this, might go in denial, yet they have little options. Given the strength of lack of it of the party, their very existence as a political force is tied to Kerala. Pinrayi is highly unlikely to give power to the apparatchiks at the Centre and will fashion the movement in the way he wants to be. In this context, it might be the end of the Communist movement in political terms as we have come to know it. The other state units will in all probability become appendages of regional parties with ideology being a mere façade. The ideology too would be thrown away is only a matter of time for Kerala. The elections have pointed out towards this direction unambiguously. There might be a time lag, it might be step-wise process but the direction is clear and only awaits crossing the Rubicon so as to speak.