To many history might appear boring,
yet it is equally fascinating to a number of others. History is about the past.
Yet history teaches us about the present and the future. History is about
learning the right lessons. History often repeats itself as a farce often as a
tragedy. Avoiding this tragedy is something that becomes critical. It is about
regressing the past towards forecasting the future. In quantitative methods,
regression is a standard tool to understand the future through the past
correlations. History too is about building correlations of the past to project
the future. History of course differs from statistical tools in terms of its
qualitative and often subjective analysis. History is about decoding the
conditions that existed resulting in a war for instance. If a war were to be a
dependent variable, then the question would be about those independent variables
as also the interaction variables while controlling for certain variables that
determined the trajectory of the war. Since history is about understanding the
causes, the course and the consequences of the event, the causes have to be
correlated with the course and consequences. This is exactly where the causes
when get repeated might result in a similar course but perhaps tragic
consequences.
History is about learning about the
livelihoods of the past. It is about learning the society and the norms prevailing
in the society. If history does point towards a shortcoming, it is critical to
point out the causes for the shortcoming. The shortcoming might not have
existed for centuries but would have been an outcome of a certain event.
History is also about understanding power contestations. Power has always been
fought for ever since the emergence of mankind. It has the survival of the
fittest. In other words, it might also be about the survival of the cautious. While
survival might have been inherent instinct, there were rulers at all points who
were adventurous enough to expand their empire thus their influence of power. They
were also adept at defending the situations which would threaten their country.
Survival to them was either to flourish or alternatively perish. It is believed
that hardly a ruler died in the bed in the ancient Rome.
While history often gives us
numerous insights to enable us to plan for the future, history is also
important for many to understand what happened in those events. The course of
the events necessitate understanding the causes and the dates of the events. There
are numerous sources through which one can garner insights about history. First,
there are literary sources which yield valuable insights. Yet, impartial
sources or rather neutral sources may be hard to come by and often are written
ages after the event. There is either way colouring of the author’s own
perceptions and analysis in decoding the event. It is fascinating to think of
dating the events. For instance, one would be curious to know the approximate
dates for many a pre-historical events. In the Indian context, it might be the
era of Ramayana or Mahabharata. The two epics are historical yet there is
little clarity in dating these epics. It is believed these events happened few
hundred years before the birth of Buddha and perhaps in the early Vedic ages. There
are others who contend they could be an outcome of pre-Harappan era. Either way,
literary sources are not something conclusive while there are little other
sources to rely upon something like coins or other materials like brassware or
utensils of that era.
In the Indian context, most of the
writings describe the events in terms of planetary formations at that time.
Indian calendar was unique in its own way. The scholarship was intrinsically
driven towards astrology what was known as jyothish shastra in India. There can
be a debate on astrology yet what is unmistakable is its dependence on
planetary and star formations. The formations do yield insights about
astronomy. The astrology emphasizes that these constellar formations impact the
human lives. There of course can be a debate on this. There is little evidence
suggesting such influences to be of significant import. It is not belittle astrology
but point towards its limitations. Yet away from the analysis, the insights
that are unearthed by the recording of those constellations and their
formations can yield useful pointers.
When one peruses the epics in the
Indian context, they do yield lot of records in terms of planetary formations
on various days. These planetary formations as with other formations in the
galaxy and beyond do not occur every day but have a certain pattern. It is well
established that these patterns get repeated at different periods of time. For instance,
if Halley’s comet is visible at a certain point, it can be safely deduced what
year it might have been. Similarly, if recorded a solar eclipse, through
astronomy, one can deduce all possible dates on which the solar eclipse would
have occurred throughout history. These are the information that would be of
value to historians. Therefore, there is a new branch that seems to be emerging
and called archeo-astronomy.
The word seems to suggest a combination
of archeology and astronomy. It seems to be linking archeological findings to
their approximate dates using the astronomical findings. This would seem
exciting. In fact, when one looks at the epics and the rich sources they yield
in terms of planetary movements this would yield good insights on their dating.
In alignment with carbon dating, this field could be of significant help. Yet this
field would need tremendous push in terms of publishing peer reviewed papers
and thus add on to the journal publications. Most of the findings seem to be
connected to astrology and its variants. Efforts must be made to divorce the
two and use the findings about planetary movements into dating things. While archeology
might be of aid, it is history that has the potential to be reshaped through
these insights. With passage of time, it is difficult to pin point events even
in fairly recent times historically speaking. If the literary resources and similar
resources are linked with the astronomical findings, it would strengthen the
findings in terms of concretization of historical happenings. Yet, the field is
in its infancy and will perhaps struggle to gain traction. However, the
potential for the same if handled with precision could be significant.
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