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Showing posts with the label BJP

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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Decoding the Cabinet Reshuffle

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  It was hardly a routine cabinet reshuffle. The reshuffle coming almost in the middle of the term was essentially a reset of the government in the run up to the elections of 2024. It was equally about those were dropped as much as it was about those who were inducted or promoted. At one level, it is a step towards elimination of independent charges being handed to ministers of state. At the same time it was about the performance being the absolute parameter with reputations hardly counting anything. It would not save some senior figures while it would induct quite a number of relatively young parliamentarians perhaps giving them a chance to prove themselves. There were some losers and few gainers as usual but the unmistakable signs of PM’s footprint was visible throughout. There appeared to be strong homework with respect to the competencies and the castes. The ministry was not about competency alone but an integration of the same with the caste and regions. In other words every regio
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Political Factional Fights

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  Over the last month or so while the cases of the Chinese virus show small signs of abatement, factionalism has reared its head across political parties across the states. The Congress is facing challenges to its Chief Ministers in Punjab and Rajasthan. In Punjab, there are multiple factions that are clamoring for replacement for existing Chief Minster Capt. Amrinder Singh. In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot group is queering the pitch for the Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Meanwhile Gehlot is demonstrating counter show of strength. There are reports of factional fighting in Jharkhand and Karnataka. BJP too is not immune from these fights. From Bengal where they are facing murmurs of dissent partly due to state pressure, they are experiencing factional troubles in different states. They replaced Chief Minister in Uttarakhand, there were reports of fights in Uttar Pradesh. Karnataka is no stranger to factional fights in the BJP and currently witnessing one more round of such infighting.   Th
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Countering Bengal Political Violence

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  While there were expectations that BJP would offer Mamta Banerjee a stiff fight in the Bengal elections, the end outcome was a decisive victory for her. The BJP however which used to struggle to open its account managed to become the largest opposition party. In fact, the entire opposition space is occupied by the party with the Left and the Congress drawing a blank. It was a sad ending for the Left which had once ruled the state for 34 years. The moment election results were out, there was sporadic violence with the Trinamool cadre attacking the BJP voters. Disturbing videos were seen floating through the social media. The Governor had to publicly reprimand the Chief Minister at her swearing in. Apparently, it is the force from the minority community that seems to be attacking the majority. The political violence is not something unusual.   Bengal has been witness to political violence for decades. The Senbari killings to the burning of Anand Marg monks to Marchijhappi violence
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Election Season 2021: A Note

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  The very geography of India makes it a permanent election season. There are elections round the clock in some or the other part of the country. There are elections to the Parliament, there are elections to the state assemblies. There are bye-elections to the Parliament or State Assemblies. There are elections to local bodies, autonomous councils or what not. Therefore, there is valid reason why the current government is keen on having ‘One Nation, One Election’. It is not just the costs, but the productivity lost in the election season and the perennial Model Code of Conduct in some part of the country or the other. As with any year, 2021 too has its own set of elections. Therefore, one is all set for the election season which is beginning the current week in West Bengal and Assam and will also cover the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Union Territory of Pondicherry. Besides, there are by-elections scheduled both for Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha across the different states and
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The Message from Gujarat

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  Local body election results tend to favour the ruling party in the state and prima facie, the results from Gujarat seem to reinforce that. One witnessed something similar in Punjab where the ruling Congress swept the polls with the other parties performing very badly and nearly wiped out. In Gujarat too, the ruling BJP has ensured it swept the urban body elections across all six corporations. It did so in resounding manner. The opposition was left to clutch some straws for hope. It is more remarkable given the BJP is ruling these corporations for nearly three decades. In 2016, there were some setbacks, the party barely managed to hold on a few of these corporations though the urban voter by and large stood with it even in those tough times, the Patidar agitation at its peak.   The remarkable feature of the Gujarat polls is not merely in the BJP sweeping the stakes. It is the changes that seem to be occurring in the landscape of the political opposition in the state. this changing
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Notes on Punjab Politics

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  The events at the Red Fort and other parts of Delhi in the guise of farmer protests have brought the spotlight back on to the politics as it exists in Punjab. There is no doubt, a rising clamour for the arrest and crackdown of the farmer’s movements or at least the movement that is going on in the name of farm laws. The protest leaders might be busy disowning the actions at the Red Fort but cannot absolve themselves of the responsibility of their actions which led to this fracas. The protestors might have the backing of the media and the opposition parties, each wanting to hit back at the Modi government for their own reasons, but their agenda seems to be suffering a setback. However, the setback might not be visible in Punjab as it would be perhaps in Haryana or Rajasthan or Uttar Pradesh. There is very distinct Sikh identity to the current protests and thus the events would reinforce the perception that Sikh and Khalistani agenda in specific was the real agenda of the protest group
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Bihar Elections 2020- A Note

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  The last phase of Bihar elections are about to be held on November 7, 2020. The counting of votes will happen on November 10, 2020. Along with these elections the counting of by-elections in several states for their Assemblies will also be held. The most interesting part of this election was Bihar going to polls in mere three phases. This represents the journey Bihar has travelled over the years. It was not long when Bihar polls would be full of violent incidents, people dying in clashes. Mercifully, the current round of elections have gone peacefully. In fact, the peaceful conduct of polls in three phases in an environment aggravated by the pandemic unleashed by the Chinese virus represents a case for India to move towards a single or two phase polls in the near future.   Amidst these elections, the pointers from Madhya Pradesh would no doubt be significant. While the BJP might win absolute majority, if it does fail to win significant number of seats it would herald a sort of co
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JP Nadda's New Team

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  Last week, the BJP President Mr. JP Nadda announced his team of office bearers. This was perhaps delayed given the conditions following the lockdown to tackle the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus. There were surprises and also some expected appointments. The surprises too perhaps could have been anticipated. Some of the inclusions or exclusions or non-inclusions do lead to new speculations. These speculations are invariably linked to the expected Cabinet reshuffle and expansion by PM Modi. Thus, it would be in order to understand the logic behind the appointments or non-appointments in the party team.   In the BJP’s organizational structure, few positions are critical and many perhaps ornamental or support staff. While the party president no doubt is the most powerful, one doubts about JP Nadda’s authority to be exercised independently of PM Modi and Home Minster Shah. During the reign of Amit Shah, there was no ambiguity on who called the shots in the party affairs. There w
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BJP and Conquering New Territories: Some Notes

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  A 2013 post “ Deciphering the Strategic Logic of Electoral Alliances ” discussed in substance the theoretical underpinnings of a political party choosing to go for in for electoral alliances for short term gains. There are push factors and pull factors that come into play. These were sought to be analysed through the prism of management theories how needs of both the national party eager into an alliance and the regional political force which too would be equally keen to enter into an alliance. To a political party making a headway in a state is always going to be difficult. It would be easier to make the first wave of gaining let us say around 10-15% of the vote in a wave election or so but would rather be long climb with returns operating at a decreasing scale till it hits around 35-40% wherein the party is in a position to have a strike at the government formation. These long years which yield sub optimal returns are difficult to keep the party workers motivated. Similarly to regi
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AAP Dilemma Revisited!

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Delhi elections are back. It might be an election for a glorified muncipality, yet being the national capital attracts maximum noise. The LS elections of both 2014 and 2019 saw clean sweep by the BJP yet the VS election of 2015 saw clean sweep (almost!) by the AAP. The elections to the local bodies saw convicing BJP victory. It perhaps points to split voting. One has to wait for the verdict of VS'20 to know the future trends. Yet a peek in history is worthwhile. I had attempted to analyse the rise of AAP in the wake of verdict of 2013 VS elections. For more on the same, one can read @ https://t.co/aKH3y2bNGj?amp=1
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