Local body
election results tend to favour the ruling party in the state and prima facie,
the results from Gujarat seem to reinforce that. One witnessed something
similar in Punjab where the ruling Congress swept the polls with the other
parties performing very badly and nearly wiped out. In Gujarat too, the ruling
BJP has ensured it swept the urban body elections across all six corporations. It
did so in resounding manner. The opposition was left to clutch some straws for
hope. It is more remarkable given the BJP is ruling these corporations for
nearly three decades. In 2016, there were some setbacks, the party barely
managed to hold on a few of these corporations though the urban voter by and
large stood with it even in those tough times, the Patidar agitation at its
peak.
The remarkable
feature of the Gujarat polls is not merely in the BJP sweeping the stakes. It is
the changes that seem to be occurring in the landscape of the political
opposition in the state. this changing landscape is bound to have effects across
the country. The first remarkable feature is the defeat of the Congress not
just in terms of a loss but the magnitude of the loss. For instance in Surat it
did not open its account and ended third in the vote share. In Rajkot for instance,
it had experienced a narrow loss five years ago, but in the current election it
had to be content merely by opening its account in the elected body. It experienced
a near whitewash in the other elected
bodies too. It is not that Congress voters shifted to the BJP. The traditional
Congress voters or for that matter, the anti-BJP voter no longer see Congress
as an option. Gujarat was one of the states which had a bipolar polity with BJP
and Congress as the two poles. The third force had barely little existence. The
second signal that is coming out from these polls is the third polity is
underway in Gujarat and it will be at the expense of the Congress. In Surat for
instance, the anti-BJP vote shifted from the Congress to the AAP. AAP has made
some impressive inroads into the city. It might not have secured any seat in
Rajkot for instance, but the double digit vote share ensured AAP being the
barrier in Congress performance in the body. It perhaps amplified the BJP
victory in the city. Similarly, Assaduddin Owaisi has made inroads for his
party MIM in Ahmedabad. After tasting success in Bihar, Ahmedabad now sees some
significant movement in his experiments. His seats might be in single digits
but he has emerged as the voice of the Muslim community in the city. This is
again a bad news for the Congress. In fact, in Jamnagar for instance,
anti-Congress votes seemed to have shifted to BSP which hitherto had very
little presence in the state.
This no doubt
sets the stage for the Assembly elections in late 2022. Given the significant urbanization
of Gujarat, it would be a pointer to a possible emergence of third force maybe through
a coalition of AAP, MIM, BTP(tribal party) or maybe even NCP or BSP into the
stream. This is certainly not a good news for the Congress, though BJP would be
happy in the immediate run. At the national level, its implications would be
perhaps even worse for the Congress. It is the signal that matters in politics
and at the moment, the Congress is not conveying those positive signals. Any adverse
verdict in the upcoming assembly elections across five states and union
territories would further worsen the Congress position.
The Congress is
increasingly losing its pre-eminence as the leading opposition party. For long
the Congress was the ruling party whereas there was no single opposition party
that could sustain itself as the non-Congress pole. The BJP’s emergence changed
the same leading to a national bi-polar contest between these two parties
though the regional parties continue to remain strong across many geographies. Even
among the BJP leadership, the belief was the national polity revolves around
two poles, the Congress and the BJP. However, the thinking in the current
leadership seems to be different. The Gujarat results indicate the Congress
would no longer be the undisputed leader to the non-BJP parties. Both in 2004
and 2019, the Congress led the non-BJP forces in the battle against Vajpayee
and later against Modi. The results in 2014 and 2019 indicated severe loss to
the Congress not just in terms of seats but also in vote share. Congress barely
commands a fifth of the national vote share while the BJP is increasingly
moving towards capturing two in five votes at the national level.
The other
opposition parties will no longer look to Congress to lead the anti-BJP polity.
Sharad Pawar is already indicating the possibility of him occupying the position
of UPA chairman. In other words, there is a sign to Rahul Gandhi, he would not
be the Prime Ministerial candidate for the combined opposition which they were
willing to concede even in 2019. There are signs that KCR of Telanagana and
even Mamta throwing their hats in the ring. Surat might have given just that
encouragement to Arvind Kejriwal to boost his national ambitions. In this
context, multiple fronts are likely to emerge as opposed to the leadership of
Congress. The discontent in the Congress is likely to intensify in the days to
come. The G-23 might get a fresh lease of life to press their concerns. The inability
of Rahul Gandhi to provide the leadership at this stage will perhaps prove
costly and make it difficult for others to entrust their fate to him. The Muslim
vote which used to go the Congress in many states especially where there were
no regional players strong enough to challenge the BJP are now increasingly
looking towards Owaisi. The rise of a national Muslim party or at least a
coalition cannot be ruled out and it might seek to strive a hard bargain with
the Congress as with the other parties. Thus the immediate outcome of the local
polls is the shrinking of the Congress position in the non-BJP polity. The contestations
within the non-BJP polity would intensify. This obviously would benefit the
BJP. There might be ‘Modi vs who’ something being talked about. Yet, one has to
await how in the long run the indian polity would transform as new forces seek
to displace the Congress.
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