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Showing posts with the label Chinese virus

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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People and the Third Wave of Chinese Virus

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  The second wave of the Chinese virus induced pandemic seems to have abated in most parts of the country. Yet Kerala continues to defy the projections. Maharashtra too continues to report high number of cases. The scenario in North Eastern States too is not very encouraging though in absolute numbers seems less. The situation however has improved in northern and western states where the cases have dropped down dramatically. The states in the South apart from Kerala seem to be under control though the numbers are still high for comfort. In this backdrop, the states and union territories are opening up their economies and societies. While there are restrictions, the economy seems to be moving back to the days of pre-second wave. The business is likely to pick up in the weeks coming ahead. Yet while one seeks to recover from the second wave, the fear of a third wave seems to linger on. There is a feeling that this might impact children more and thus a need to prepare for them.   Seco
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Tourism Industry in the Times of Pandemic

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  The pandemic induced by the Chinese virus has taken a toll on the economies across the world without exception. Industries are affected in terms of their productivity one due to lockdowns and thus restriction on production as also on demand and secondly due to the employees testing positive for the Chinese virus thus absenting themselves from work and perhaps affecting the co-workers in the process becoming superspreaders. The economies have witnessed recession across board and it is only now that some economies are turning the corner. It is however very early days to be optimistic of a full recovery in the current financial year. India was on the verge of a turnaround before the second wave hit in full fury resulting in lockdowns across states. Though the lockdowns varied in intensity and perhaps was not as strict as it was in the first lockdown, the impact on productivity would have to be gauged as the data comes in for the first quarter of the financial year 2021-22. Rather than p
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Indian Vaccine Story

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  The vaccination process in India continues to fumble on. The process had begun relatively smooth but soon encountered troubles partly due to the vaccine hesitancy thus certain wastage coupled with the second wave of the Wuhan pandemic which devastated urban and the rural alike. It was aggravated by the shortage of vaccines. India had approved two vaccines, yet their supply was limited and could not be scaled up. While the Covishield being marketed by Serum Institute, but developed by Oxford and Astra Zeneca, was also to be exported to meet its global commitments the Covaxin developed by the domestic vaccine producer Bharat Biotech could not be scaled up because of technical issues. The Sputnik, developed by Russian scientists and marketed by Dr. Reddy’s Labs too is facing issues of manufacturing, which is likely to start in a month or so.   There was no doubt as mentioned in the previous columns too that the government strategy on vaccines lacked homework. There has been a talk a
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India's COVID Waves

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  India’s second wave of the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus seems to continue unabated. The experts are forecasting a peak in a day or two. There are some positive signs however feeble they might be about the plateau of cases in a few states. Yet, the devastation seems to ravage. It would nice in statistics to talk about peak and plateau and flattening of the curve. It would be impersonal in statistics to discuss these terms. Yet to those who are suffering from the pandemic and those who have lost their lives and those who have lost their loved ones, it is a different thing altogether. The wreckage it has created besides the impact on the people’s psyche might take years before some normalcy might return. There is in all likelihood an increase in the cases impacting mental health which might not be easy to tackle around. There seems to be around a corner a mental health crisis across the country and perhaps globally. India has been facing the worse in the last month or so especi
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Indian Economy and COVID-19 Second Wave

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  The challenge in the second wave of the coronavirus orginatiing in China is managing the economy. In the previous instance of the first wave of 2020, India had gone in for an early lockdown when the cases were hardly in double digits. India had perhaps one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. This certainly managed to contain the wave and slow down the spread. The peak came something later around mid-September, partly causes by the increased flow of migrants across the country. The gravity was essentially a result of mismanagement in contact tracing by states like Maharashtra and Delhi. The lockdown took a heavy toll on the economy. The economy crashed to fall nearing 25% yoy. The lockdown also led to the recession for the first time in India. The economic scars is something government wants to avoid this time around. The economic impact and consequent social transfers led to the fiscal deficit hitting close to 10% of the GDP. There is of course a question whether India would be
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Modi and the Second Wave of Chinese Pandemic

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  India is in the grip of the second wave of the pandemic induced by the virus originated in China. The cases are hitting records which were unseen in the previous wave. India has now recorded more than two thousand deaths per day. Though the death rate is lower relative to the first wave, the fact that deaths happen around a week or two after testing positive cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it would be premature to discuss the deaths in comparison to the first wave. There has been a lot of talk about the reasons for the second wave. While there might reasons one too many, what cannot be discounted is the fact that once the wave strikes, there is very little one can do other than cessation of economic and social life. Britain has been able to come out of the second wave thanks to the lockdown accompanied by the rapid increase in vaccinations. Europe is still in the grip of the lockdown. It seems inevitable that India too would have to go in for a lockdown.   One of the reasons why
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Opening Up the Indian Vaccine Policy

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  The second wave of the Chinese flu is not showing signs of decline. There are a few who are talking about the peak being hit in Maharashtra but there is very little evidence of the same. Maybe in the next few weeks, one could observe any decline. While there are quite a few experts who are talking about the peak being in three weeks and then a slow plateau and decline the cases, these opinions are bound to be taken with certain skepticism. The plan must be to prepare for the worst case scenario rather than the optimistic scenario. In fact, one of the drawbacks of the Indian policy making apparatus has been the plans based on optimism rather than worst case scenario. Indian vaccination approvals too was based on perhaps the minimum need to vaccinate a certain mass to break the chain. There was no realization that the chain could be broken only if all the Indians are vaccinated or at least those eligible. This has set back the process of vaccination and perhaps in some ways did aggrava
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Lockdowns, Utility, Costs and the Second Wave of the Chinese Pandemic

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  India is facing a second wave of corona virus induced pandemic. The cases are rising quite sharply. Hardly any state has been left untouched. The experts feel the peak is a little distance away. The tests have to increase and definitely have shown an increase. The spread is faster compared to the first wave. The cases are already increasing in excess of 1.5 lakhs per day compared to a peak of around 1 lakhs in the first wave. The vaccinations are steady, yet given the sheer size of India, they appear inadequate. India is vaccinating perhaps at the highest rate in absolute numbers but still they fall way behind the required rate to attain herd immunity in the shortest period of time. At this stage, there are again voices all around calling for a lockdown.   There is increasing view that Maharashtra will have to go in for a lockdown maybe for a couple of weeks. Despite the disagreement with the coalition partners, it would be safe to assume that Maharashtra is left with no option b
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2020 in Retrospect

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  The year 2020 is about to fly by and we are welcoming 2021. As with any year, there would obviously be optimism as one welcomes 2021. The outgoing year has not been memorable across the human mankind. It might be one of those years which would be best left forgotten. The year 2021 is beginning with optimism and one hopes the challenges facing the existence of human mankind are overcome and a new beginning emerges. The year 2020 too was welcomed with optimism but somewhere along Wuhan in Hubei province of China, a virus was sweeping around claiming victims as it spread its tentacles far and wide. It was not that the rest of the world did not know, what perhaps was unknown the magnitude of damage it was inflicting across the city of Wuhan. China could have alerted the rest of the world but as with any other Chinese thing, they chose to remain secretive. It was a potential ruin event, to borrow from Taleb, but the World Health Organization (WHO) instead of alerting the rest of the world
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Congress and the Loss of Ahmed Patel and Tarun Gogoi

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  COVID-19, the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus continues to claim celebrity victims. In the past few days, two senior Congress leaders Tarun Gogoi, the ex-Assam Chief Minister and Ahmed Patel, the political secretary to the Congress President succumbed to the post COVID-19 complications. They were two contrasting leaders who contributed in different ways to the Congress and perhaps their loss is irreplaceable to the party in the short run. The Congress had lost Shri Pranab Mukherjee ex-President few months back and thus the woes do not seem to end. It would be pertinent to have a look at what their loss would mean to the Congress.   At the outset, it must be said, no one is indispensable and thus everyone have their own shelf life. Nature would have its own replacements. What Ahmed Patel was the UPA-I and II, the same role was executed in different means, but same intended ends by RK Dhawan during the days of Indira Gandhi. While the Congress would await its new Ahmed Patel,
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US Tech IPOs in the Pandemic Times

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  The year 2020 has been pretty bad for the economy across the world. The pandemic induced by the Chinese virus seemingly created havoc across countries. As countries raced to protect their citizens, the trade-off was a lock down quite severe in some of the countries. The economic activity had to halt to protect human lives and prevent the virus from spreading. While the drug companies raced to be the first to produce the vaccine, the policy makers seemed to have little option but to restrict life and freedom till such time the clouds become clear. Recession is being reported from across countries with many reporting a dip in the growth well excess of 20% signalling a possible depression. The fiscal and monetary policy both seemed to show limitations. The fiscal seemed the better of the two with government pushing in cash transfers and stimulus to households and industry alike. There is no doubt the spillovers impacted the market too. The financial markets too have taken a sort of beat
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Economics Applications- Examples from Intellectual Property Rights

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  Many past posts have discussed the applications of economics concepts and principles in different facets of life. It has been argued often that the applications are perhaps sub conscious but nevertheless can be theorized. There are often applications that can be theorised through economic thinking while rationalising those actions. The current post will seek to delve into the intellectual property rights (IPRs) and how their application gets rooted in economics. While IPRs need an engagement at depth, the current post will limit to a few examples that highlight the economics at work.   Ever-greening of patents In 2014, the Supreme Court of India invalidated the patent on Gilvea, the anti-cancer drug developed and marketed by Novartis. The patent on the drug had expired in 2006 but the pharma giant wanted to extend the patent. It had made use of the application of the concept of ever-greening. Patents are an outcome of a trade-off between short term and long term prospective rew
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