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Showing posts with the label Narendra Modi

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

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  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra
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Decoding the Cabinet Reshuffle

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  It was hardly a routine cabinet reshuffle. The reshuffle coming almost in the middle of the term was essentially a reset of the government in the run up to the elections of 2024. It was equally about those were dropped as much as it was about those who were inducted or promoted. At one level, it is a step towards elimination of independent charges being handed to ministers of state. At the same time it was about the performance being the absolute parameter with reputations hardly counting anything. It would not save some senior figures while it would induct quite a number of relatively young parliamentarians perhaps giving them a chance to prove themselves. There were some losers and few gainers as usual but the unmistakable signs of PM’s footprint was visible throughout. There appeared to be strong homework with respect to the competencies and the castes. The ministry was not about competency alone but an integration of the same with the caste and regions. In other words every regio
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Countering Bengal Political Violence

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  While there were expectations that BJP would offer Mamta Banerjee a stiff fight in the Bengal elections, the end outcome was a decisive victory for her. The BJP however which used to struggle to open its account managed to become the largest opposition party. In fact, the entire opposition space is occupied by the party with the Left and the Congress drawing a blank. It was a sad ending for the Left which had once ruled the state for 34 years. The moment election results were out, there was sporadic violence with the Trinamool cadre attacking the BJP voters. Disturbing videos were seen floating through the social media. The Governor had to publicly reprimand the Chief Minister at her swearing in. Apparently, it is the force from the minority community that seems to be attacking the majority. The political violence is not something unusual.   Bengal has been witness to political violence for decades. The Senbari killings to the burning of Anand Marg monks to Marchijhappi violence
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Modi and the Second Wave of Chinese Pandemic

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  India is in the grip of the second wave of the pandemic induced by the virus originated in China. The cases are hitting records which were unseen in the previous wave. India has now recorded more than two thousand deaths per day. Though the death rate is lower relative to the first wave, the fact that deaths happen around a week or two after testing positive cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it would be premature to discuss the deaths in comparison to the first wave. There has been a lot of talk about the reasons for the second wave. While there might reasons one too many, what cannot be discounted is the fact that once the wave strikes, there is very little one can do other than cessation of economic and social life. Britain has been able to come out of the second wave thanks to the lockdown accompanied by the rapid increase in vaccinations. Europe is still in the grip of the lockdown. It seems inevitable that India too would have to go in for a lockdown.   One of the reasons why
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Decoding Western Thinking on Indian Democratic Standards

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  Sometime back in the Rajya Sabha, a MP from AAP raised the issue of a Swedish think tank downgrading the status of Indian democracy. The Vice President who was in the Chair was contemptuous and did not allow any further comments or references to the topic. Now that the V-Dem has released its report calling India an ‘elected autocracy’ for whatever that means. A couple of weeks back, Freedom House a think tank funded by the US government downgraded Indian democracy from free to ‘partly free’. The discussions over these reports seem to be expected lines and have provided enough fodder to all suiting their political preferences.   To the critics, the report seem to reinforce their perception that Modi is a dictator for whatever that means to them. To the supporters, it is the colored perception of the West that refuses to recognizes the ground realities in India.   India is free and well flourishing democracy. The elections have been held at regular intervals. The governments have c
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Modi and Western Media and Intellectual Perception

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  In the last few weeks, there has been bit of attention in the Western media and celebrity circles about the anti-Modi farm protests. It is being projected as if the whole of India is out on the streets seeking to uproot the alleged dictatorial regime of PM Modi. It is further being projected that PM Modi is trying to suppress these protests, something indicative of India’s backsliding from democracy. These fanciful and wishful projections could have been dismissed as something of fantasy but the forces that seem to be masterminding it seem sinister and would not hesitate to create divide within the country. To add, there is a vast section of the chatterati and the opposition polity that seem ever eager to use any opportunity, however faint it might be to destroy the credibility of Modi even if it meant siding with forces inimical to India’s long term interests.   There might be a puzzle or two to the bystanders why the Western media apart from the intellectual and activist celebr
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the Great Indian Vaccine Drive

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  India has begun the vaccination drive against the Chinese virus induced COVID-19 pandemic. Given the population size of nearly 1.4 billion, it would perhaps be the largest vaccination drive ever undertaken. The fact that it has to be undertaken in a very short time say about less than a year, the ambitions would be sheer audacity given the logistics involved in such a mammoth effort. It is not just about production of vaccines, but going beyond into the quality control, the transport from the plants to the different storage centres further to be distributed to the states and the districts and then to the vaccination centres. To add, the supply must be continuous with little disruption. The conditions for transporting the vaccines would have to be adhered to. Furthermore, the preparations at the each of the centres in terms of administering the vaccine apart from training the vaccinators itself would be daunting. There is furthermore need to coordinate with the people in fixing their
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Political Communication and the Tenali Rama Problem

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  The farm bill protests seem to take Delhi by siege. Yet the predominant proportion of farmers protesting are from a single state Punjab. The very nature of the protest does point towards enough indicators of a political protest being disguised as a farmer’s protest. The left liberal ecosystem in India that has long thrived on the patronage of the Congress and its lackeys is desperately creating a Ram Lila 2011 redux. More than the Ram Lila fast by Anna Hazare per se, it was the Congress response to it that effectively sunk the Congress. The Congress and its ecosystem is recover from the same and want to do a Ram Lila 2.0 on Modi. Yet their efforts so far have not fructified. The electoral victories have once again proved that Modi continues to be trusted and popular. The Congress is in serious danger of turning irrelevant. It is in this context one has to look the Punjab farmers protests which has shifted its action to Delhi.   The right wing on the social media and Twitter in pa
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Bihar Elections 2020- A Note

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  The last phase of Bihar elections are about to be held on November 7, 2020. The counting of votes will happen on November 10, 2020. Along with these elections the counting of by-elections in several states for their Assemblies will also be held. The most interesting part of this election was Bihar going to polls in mere three phases. This represents the journey Bihar has travelled over the years. It was not long when Bihar polls would be full of violent incidents, people dying in clashes. Mercifully, the current round of elections have gone peacefully. In fact, the peaceful conduct of polls in three phases in an environment aggravated by the pandemic unleashed by the Chinese virus represents a case for India to move towards a single or two phase polls in the near future.   Amidst these elections, the pointers from Madhya Pradesh would no doubt be significant. While the BJP might win absolute majority, if it does fail to win significant number of seats it would herald a sort of co
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Narendra Modi and the Reforms

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  Sometime back, the post “ Decoding Modi’s Popularity ” tried to understand the reasons for continuing popularity of the Indian Prime Minister. Many western commentators try to judge him on their standards which implied would translate into so-called western liberal values. Thus in their assessment, he stands contrary to what they seem to preach to Indian masses. Yet while his popularity remains undisputed, there are many commentators including among the Indian right and his support base who feel that Modi is not an economic reformer. They point out to the lack of reforms in the Indian context. They argued that Modi while create political disruptions has faltered on the economy. The low economic growth rate in the recent periods is seen as an vindication of their stand. Yet, at times it feels for an economic reformer in the Indian context, all Modi had to do was to privatize Air India and close down BSNL. To a prospective champion of Indian economic reforms, the test begins with priva
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China, India and Afzal Khan

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  The winter is seemingly setting in Ladakh yet there seems to be no end in sight for the standoff that has ensued since April this year. The Chinese forces are digging in and reinforcing. Ditto for the Indian forces. The mind games are truly on. Similarly, the Indian forces have taken control over series of peaks hitherto unoccupied and overlooking the Chinese positions. If it was believed China had occupied the strategic heights in the early part of the summer, as the winter sets in, it seems Indians have occupied strategic heights in some other sectors. While the game might moving towards a Prisoner’s Dilemma, yet no one wants to be the ‘Chicken’. It seems a game to the finish. It is unlikely that the game will have any other ending other than the fight to the finish in the long run. The current standoff are more an exercise of preparation for the final war. It is about buying time for the final preparations. The long negotiations are aimed at wearing down the enemy. Each side does
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JP Nadda's New Team

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  Last week, the BJP President Mr. JP Nadda announced his team of office bearers. This was perhaps delayed given the conditions following the lockdown to tackle the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus. There were surprises and also some expected appointments. The surprises too perhaps could have been anticipated. Some of the inclusions or exclusions or non-inclusions do lead to new speculations. These speculations are invariably linked to the expected Cabinet reshuffle and expansion by PM Modi. Thus, it would be in order to understand the logic behind the appointments or non-appointments in the party team.   In the BJP’s organizational structure, few positions are critical and many perhaps ornamental or support staff. While the party president no doubt is the most powerful, one doubts about JP Nadda’s authority to be exercised independently of PM Modi and Home Minster Shah. During the reign of Amit Shah, there was no ambiguity on who called the shots in the party affairs. There w
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Indo China Standoff and the World War I

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  The war clouds seem to be looming around Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. A two front war too cannot be ruled out implying the war might expand to Jammu and Kashmir and the Western states. It is not discounting the possibility of war around Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim. China seems to be belligerent and the recent setbacks seem to harden its stand. Any backing out would be setback for President Xi himself. It is unlikely they are going back to the 1993 agreement and the subsequent ones. Perhaps too them, it seems a sort of prestige to salvage their setbacks from Galwan till Pangong. India perhaps at this moment has little option but to confront the Chinese. The Indians are demonstrating patience is some indicator to the world that India does not want aggressive posture or solution to the problem but desire a genuine peace. Having demonstrated that, India seems reconciled to the war. With the Chinese virus raging around in the country, it would be a tough task to face the Chi
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