Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Political Communication and the Tenali Rama Problem

 

The farm bill protests seem to take Delhi by siege. Yet the predominant proportion of farmers protesting are from a single state Punjab. The very nature of the protest does point towards enough indicators of a political protest being disguised as a farmer’s protest. The left liberal ecosystem in India that has long thrived on the patronage of the Congress and its lackeys is desperately creating a Ram Lila 2011 redux. More than the Ram Lila fast by Anna Hazare per se, it was the Congress response to it that effectively sunk the Congress. The Congress and its ecosystem is recover from the same and want to do a Ram Lila 2.0 on Modi. Yet their efforts so far have not fructified. The electoral victories have once again proved that Modi continues to be trusted and popular. The Congress is in serious danger of turning irrelevant. It is in this context one has to look the Punjab farmers protests which has shifted its action to Delhi.

 

The right wing on the social media and Twitter in particular have been vociferous on economic reforms. In their perception, Modi turned out to be very different that Margret Thatcher whom they thought they would see in Modi. They wanted Modi perhaps to stress on Hayek as his Bible which they could not get. Time and again, they have brought back memories of how Margret Thatcher handled Coal Strike in Britain with an iron hand. Each time an agitation happens, they believe the response must match that of Thatcher. Yet today, as Modi seems to stand firm, the right wing seems to be hiding. The right wing rarely finds merit in any of the Modi’s actions and usually finds fault with him for the smallest of the things. Time and again they have faulted Modi for what they term poor communication. In their assessment, Modi doesn’t communicate well and thus the problems arise. In their terminology, all agitations find a root in Modi’s perceived inability to communicate. Yet with passage of time, unlike their idol Thatcher  who stood firm, they begin to vacillate fast. Like in the JNU incidents and consequent arrest of Kanahiya Kumar, they were finding fault with Modi of mishandling rather than standing firm. The problem with the right wing in India especially its social media version is its cowardice notwithstanding the strong nature of the word. They cannot stand firm and start to get scared a moment a counter-attack is made. They want a battle to be won without any counter-attacks nor any damage to their side. They do not want casualties. They cannot stand firm in the face of adversity. The moment a small attack is made, they begin to develop cold feet and start to advocate retreat. This is not just small time twitterati but celebrities on social media whether they are journos or otherwise. Be it the JNU incidents, OROP protests, the Balakot strikes and aftermath, Shaheen Bagh, political fights in West Bengal or Kerala, the right wing has demonstrated it has a very weak heart. It cannot stand any response that might be even in smallest doses hints at some damage. Hard to accept, but no battle is ever won with casualties. There is no war which has not seen bloodshed. No war is won in a single day. There would be moves and counter moves. The challenge is confront the countermoves despite the adverse nature and the possible damages it might cause. The moment they sense a small unit of counter-attack, the panic sets in the right wing and they turn their ire on Modi. All that has to be blamed is Modi’s communication. If communication was so bad, they perhaps cannot explain why Modi has scored electoral victories again and again since 2014. It is only because of his ability to communicate that he has been able to strike a chord with the people and gain their trust. In their world view, people are misinformed and hence the agitations happen or alternatively, Modi has not addressed all their grievances because of what they term the obstructive and obdurate bureaucracy.  Yet nothing is farther from this truth.

 

There is a story of Tenali Ramakrishna that comes to the mind. There is one so called chess expert who visits the court of Krishnadevaraya and challenges his courtiers to a game of chess. Tenali Rama accepts the challenge. The game proceeds for long hours. Everyone has by and large dozed off. Seeing this opportunity, the expert starts shouting from the roof top saying he has won. Everybody feels that Tenali Rama has lost and nobody his willing to listen to his explanation. The same story keeps happening again and again. It is the ecosystem that starts talking around how certain piece of action goes against a certain section or for that matter entire society. CAA had nothing to do with Muslims but the projection was it was anti-Muslim depriving them of their citizenship. Similarly farm bills have nothing to do with MSP but the entire seems to revolve around there. It is not misinformation that exists in the commentariat. It is the deliberate misinformation that gets spread and no amount of communication can cover that. The initial thrust or the pincer attacks have to be absorbed. It is only after the initial attack has faded that the counter- strategies begin to work. This is bound to happen again and again. There is a well thought out strategy that is being put into place when these attacks happen. The momentum is always with the attacker for that moment. The counter moves lie in wearing out the attacker. The attacker wants to provoke and gain the sympathy for the underdog. The human tendency across the world without exception is to favour the underdog challenging the mighty state irrespective of the ideological leanings. The underdog wants to be attacked so that his or her cause gets furthered. The counter-strategy lies in not playing to their expected books. Punjab has a history to it when the Congress at the Centre fell into a similar trap created by the Sikh groups.

 

As observed, the strategy for the BJP led government would be to make unconventional counter moves that hit their underbelly. The more alternate faces are manifested away from the farmers issues, the better would be for a counter move. The right wing must realise that developing cold feet would not serve the purpose. The right wing gets easily scared but a good option for them is to stay silent and allow the government to handle the protests.

 

 

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