Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Converting Passenger Trains to Express Trains: Some Thoughts

 

It might sound a cliché but suffice to say that railways are the lifeline of Indian economy and society would be an understatement in many ways. Almost every Indian town or taluka place have a railway station within 20-30 kms from their place. The only exceptions perhaps would be those in the hills in the Himalayas or the North East and the islands. Railway transport has been critical in bringing together people at multiple levels. Distances have reduced psychologically. It is said in the days of Madras Presidency, the introduction of railways made relationships expand to distant regions. Girls would be given in marriage to grooms in nearby villages, the reason being easy to stay connected. Once the railways came around, it was easy to stay connected even to distant places (relatively speaking from those times) as the girl’s family could visit her frequently and vice versa.

 

Railways in India essentially not only carried freight and military but also was means to transport passengers. It became easy to commute to different places for purposes of work, business, social gatherings, religious obligations and tourism among many other things. In India, the concept of railway operations was classified into express trains and passenger trains. The former had limited stops while the latter stopped at almost all stations on the way. The charm of the slow trains was captured in many a novel and movies. Given the vast population of India resided in the rural, these slow passenger trains became the staple bread and butter for the local economies. The express trains that skipped many a stops usually operated on main lines and for long distances. In fact, some of the express trains too had numerous stops. Most railway lines except for the major rarely had any express train. For instance, the line between Gadag and Solapur did see an express train till around mid-1970s when the Gol Gumbaz express was introduced between Hubli and Solapur. Similarly the line between Hubli and Guntakal part of the railway connection between Goa on the West Coast and Machilipatnam on the east coast did not have any express trains till around mid 1970s when the Vijayanagar express was introduced. The second part of the line between Guntakal and Guntur too did not have an express train till perhaps till late 1970s. Branch lines were bereft of any express trains till very recently.

 

Leave short distances, there were very long distance passengers too. In the nineteenth century, there were passengers running between Delhi and Calcutta (now Kolkata). Passenger trains between Bombay (now Mumbai) and Delhi continue to run even after independence. There used to be parcel passenger trains that used to start their journey late night, usually the last train of the day. Many cities were connected with each other mostly by the passenger trains. Post-independence, slowly, these passengers began to give way to express trains. There were and are many express trains which are only express in name but run as passengers in terms of stoppages. There are some trains which have been designated as passengers in some sections. However, the tendency was to convert into express any long distance passengers. Furthermore, the passenger trains that had their journey mostly at night were made expresses but many such overnight passengers continued to exist. There were long distance passenger trains like Bhopal-Jodhpur, Pune-Nizamabad, Hubli-Vijayawada among others. In recent times, many of these passenger trains began to get converted to express trains among which were the Bhopal-Jodhpur among others. The logic sounded simple. The fares were low for passenger trains and thus yielded low revenues. The volumes could not make up the losses for per unit revenues. Therefore, the only option was to increase the fares. Yet given the political dimensions to the fare increase, passenger train fares have rarely been increased. There are occasions where those fares have remained stagnant for decades. A nice way to circumvent the same was to convert them into express trains. Secondly, many passenger stoppages would yield low revenues since the footfalls were very low. The cost of making train stop and start at every station is high. It does also create a bottleneck in terms of passage of other trains. The slow passenger train often becomes a constraint for the faster trains that follow it from behind.

 

In the context, the cost benefit analysis is adverse towards all-stop passenger trains. Yet, these all stop trains have considerable importance for short distances in ensuring commuters reach their place of work fast. As commuter trains, these have lot of advantages. Therefore, they are good revenue spinners at short distances in peak hours. Yet most of the travellers in these times would be regular commuters and thus in good probability they would have a monthly pass or seasonal tickets with them. These tickets carry the same fare both for express and passenger trains. The seasonal ticket holders give railways assured revenues. Therefore in this context, the short distance passengers need to have these all-stop trains. The current model in the post-COVID era is to convert all long distance passenger trains into express trains. The exceptions will be those which operate for short distances. The railways have defined 200 kms or less distance covered as short distances. While in principle the idea sounds good, in practice, there are few grey areas. Some passenger train might travel higher distances but essentially are commuter trains in part. These trains have to be preserved in terms of their character. What needs is not the blanket conversion of passenger trains to express trains but conversion on selective basis. The logic again would be simple. In converting passenger trains into expresses, what needs to be understood is the passenger profile of these trains. Those trains that travel beyond the 200 km limit must retain the passenger status if the smaller stations have a good clientele and serves the local commuters. They can be converted to express only if eliminating stoppages and reduction in the time taken for travel is considerable. The mere conversion into express without eliminating most of the stoppages and without any significant reduction in the time taken for travel would be viewed purely as a money making exercise. There are stations which have hardly one passenger stopping and they might get converted into pure stopping or overtaking station in case they lose the stoppage of the existing train. This is possible if there are very few footfalls. On the whole, the objective must be to ensure the passenger profile of trains be considered rather than distance taken when determining the all-stoppage passenger getting the tag of express train.

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