2020 in Retrospect

 

The year 2020 is about to fly by and we are welcoming 2021. As with any year, there would obviously be optimism as one welcomes 2021. The outgoing year has not been memorable across the human mankind. It might be one of those years which would be best left forgotten. The year 2021 is beginning with optimism and one hopes the challenges facing the existence of human mankind are overcome and a new beginning emerges. The year 2020 too was welcomed with optimism but somewhere along Wuhan in Hubei province of China, a virus was sweeping around claiming victims as it spread its tentacles far and wide. It was not that the rest of the world did not know, what perhaps was unknown the magnitude of damage it was inflicting across the city of Wuhan. China could have alerted the rest of the world but as with any other Chinese thing, they chose to remain secretive. It was a potential ruin event, to borrow from Taleb, but the World Health Organization (WHO) instead of alerting the rest of the world decided to downplay the fears. It was in more ways than one complicit with China. The regulatory capture had been complete. The organization is still to investigate China. In fact, the world still is undecided on fixing the accountability for the pandemic that has ravaged the past year.

 

WHO communication strategy is paramount for prevention of pandemics and it is where it completely failed. Not just it was a failure of forecasting but a sheer complicity with the Chinese rulers that makes the apex health organization culpable in mass murder. If Xi Jinping emerges as a bully with whom people still want to do business, the WHO is no less. The other countries with few exceptions fared no better. By February it was getting clear that virus had expanded beyond China yet few countries took note of the same. One of the few exceptions would be Taiwan which despite its proximity to China has managed to handle the pandemic with brilliance. Vietnam and Mongolia two other neighbours of China too have managed to contain the pandemic with alacrity. Despite some clusters emerging, they have escaped so far with little damage.

 

Japan and South Korea too controlled the outbreaks fairly well though they are not out of danger yet. The damage however was reserved big for Europe in part thanks to their own incompetence and in part thanks to them being pawns of China. Europe has been at the receiving end of the virus, yet at the end of the year, they seem to make peace with China by signing a free trade accord. It is a different matter that China has broken all international rules, threatened mankind yet what it seems to get is the reward for penetrating more regions. Australia despite continuing to be bullied big by China signed a regional economic accord for a free trade area. It seemed to be one-sided path with China having access to Australian markets with denial of reciprocity. The European continent is too steeped in woke and Stockholm syndrome that it is unlikely to ever come out of the Chinese dragon’s web. The web has been weaved tight and 2021 might see a reinforcement of the same. Italy suffered only due to its woke calls for hugging a Chinese to stop racism and what got paid was the wholesale killings by a biological weapon not just in Milan but across the country. Spain was no exception. Germany might have escaped the worst in the earlier part but now in engulfed in deep pandemic turmoil, yet its industries want to make business with China. To France or Germany, demonstrating their strategic autonomy from US would be a priority than bringing into the accounts the sins of China in killing their own population. The fact that no European country has raised any concern itself demonstrate the dire straits it finds itself in.

 

Britain too has been suffering big and partly due to its own incompetency. Its policy was a disaster from the beginning and just went to bad to worse. If Britain was bad to worse, superlatives perhaps do not suffice to describe the US response throughout the 2020. In an election year that saw the incumbent the mercurial Donald Trump being voted out in favour of the establishmentarian Joseph Biden, the response was pathetic to see the least. The CDC in US had detected the presence of virus, had alerted, tests had been developed yet the very first tests were botched up by the FDA. This set back US by a big mile. By the time, the new tests emerged, there was very little they could do to control the pandemic. To add, was the individuality that overrode the collective welfare. Each state wanted to have its own way of dealing and there were anti-lockdown movements to anti-mask movements, with people rebelling against social distancing all that could go wrong went wrong. President Trump did not help matters with his own mercurial style neither did many of the Democrat Governors who more publicised their public relations network than tacking the pandemic at roots. The situation was not different in Europe either. The outcome was not just the deaths were very high but the economy too collapsed. Across the world, the economy suffered severe setbacks as the lockdowns and the pandemic toll had its  impact on the production and consumption.

 

India for all its failings came out of 2020 with relatively better performance. It’s economy tanked no doubt leading to the first recession being reported in its independent history. But by the end of the year, the economy was showing signs of recovery. The pandemic period was used to push in structural reforms some of which have met with resistance but the direction is unambiguous. The pandemic too was contained with less damage. The trade-off might have the loss on economic front, but the loss of lives was something to be avoided and India has done fairly well. By the end of the year, the pandemic seems to be under control though no room exists for complacency and neither the danger has passed. The vaccines are on their way and the year 2021 is likely to be the year of vaccines. Getting six billion population in this world vaccinated while reviving the economy would be the greatest task in front of the global leadership as one marches into 2021. The future of mankind would depend on how successful this execution would be.