Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

JP Nadda's New Team

 

Last week, the BJP President Mr. JP Nadda announced his team of office bearers. This was perhaps delayed given the conditions following the lockdown to tackle the pandemic induced by the Chinese virus. There were surprises and also some expected appointments. The surprises too perhaps could have been anticipated. Some of the inclusions or exclusions or non-inclusions do lead to new speculations. These speculations are invariably linked to the expected Cabinet reshuffle and expansion by PM Modi. Thus, it would be in order to understand the logic behind the appointments or non-appointments in the party team.

 

In the BJP’s organizational structure, few positions are critical and many perhaps ornamental or support staff. While the party president no doubt is the most powerful, one doubts about JP Nadda’s authority to be exercised independently of PM Modi and Home Minster Shah. During the reign of Amit Shah, there was no ambiguity on who called the shots in the party affairs. There was near to perfect coordination between PM and the party president something unseen in years. JP Nadda derives his authority from his proximity to both the Prime Minister and the Home Minister. His authority would be eroded the moment he loses the confidence of either of them. Therefore on the first glance, a stamp of Shah or Modi is clearly visible. Nadda has not been able to perhaps build his own men into the team. It is evident that Shah controls the party even today.

 

The second most important position would be of the General Secretary (Organization). This position is loaned by the RSS and carries significant weight. He is the man who is the bridge between the party and its parent organization. The power he wields in the party hierarchy is tremendous. BL Santosh had replaced Ramlal last year and he continues to be in that position. A usually low profile character, he has played a key role in organizing the party in Karnataka. His run-ins with the Karnataka supremo BS Yeddyurappa are well known to be repeated here. BL Santosh too enjoys the confidence of both Modi and Shah besides his parent organization, the RSS.

 

The General Secretary carries a lot of weight in the party. It is the General Secretaries who get assigned to manage states and thus have power to allot tickets in the elections. Bhupendra Yadav, Arun Singh and Kailash VIjayvargia have been retained and perhaps no surprises here. What has aroused interest is the exclusion of RSS leaders like Ram Madhav, Muralidhar Rao besides Saroj Pandey from the team. There were a few controversies surrounding Madhav while Saroj Pandey might join the ministry. There is certainly a surprise in Purandeshwari, daughter of NTR being accommodated as the general secretary. While she might be seen as a contender to NTR’s succession, she has not shown signs of being a mass leader or ensuring defections from the TDP to the BJP in her six year stint in the party. CT Ravi has been chosen as a general secretary and again given his track record of not able to emerge as a mass leader, there must be a wait and watch policy before judging his tenure. Perhaps the same holds good for Dilip Saikia from Assam. Other general secretaries have not shown any great performance in organizational matters and hence are likely to remain ornamentally in their positions. Of course, at one point of time, the position of general secretary was held by party giants like Pramod Mahajan, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Ananth Kumar among others. In all probability, Bhupendra Yadav will be the key among the general secretaries.

 

The role of national secretaries has been to support the general secretaries. While those like Sunil Deodhar (architect of Tripura win) might be elevated in the near future, the others might have been given for symbolic purposes or to balance state, regional, caste and class considerations. The party Vice Presidents are purely for symbolic purposes to accommodate a few senior leaders. Thus former Chief Ministers like Raman Singh or Vasundhara Raje find themselves in these positions. They have tried to accommodate a Kerala Muslim face in Abdulla Kutty as the vice president. There might be a few inclusions like Mukul Roy or DK Aruna who are likely to use the position to give a push to the party in their respective states. While Jay Panda has been appointed as the Vice President, he might be entrusted with more tasks in line with the general secretaries.

 

Tejasvi Surya has been given the charge of the Yuva Morcha, a sign of confidence in the young leader. He has his task cut out to demonstrate he is a man ready to ride greater challenges. Poonam Mahajan, his predecessor might be accommodated in the ministry. A Cabinet expansion and reshuffle is long awaited. Therefore, many party leaders might find themselves accommodated in the ministry. Jyotiraditya Scindia has been awaiting for long since he joined the party earlier this year. So are many others. Devendra Fadnavis has not been given any posts but made Bihar incharge. One possible line of thinking could be something is up in Maharashtra. There could be realignment of forces and Fadnavis might find himself back in the CM chair. There are complaints of Tamil Nadu being unrepresented but might itself given a post or two at a later stage. Andhra and Telangana find themselves with more posts indicating the possible BJP plan of expansion there.

 

Yet, the Parliamentary Board, the most powerful of the bodies has not been reconstituted nor the replacements have been appointment following the vacancies created by the deaths of Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Anatha Kumar. BJP finds for itself a full time treasurer after a pretty long time. The party has added some 25 spokespersons. There are of course murmurs as usual about inclusions and non-inclusions. But Nadda seems to have gone by and large with the team suggested or at least perceived close to Shah. PM Modi commands high degree of popularity and trust. It is up to the party team to consolidate, leverage and thus strengthen the organization at the village and block levels across the country including terrains hitherto unexplored.

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