The US
presidential election is just over a month away. The early voting has started. There
are already accusations of fraud in mail-in voting. While Democrats want to exercise
mail-in voting, the Republicans are not. The latter smell some dirty fish in
the exercise of postal ballots. Not too long ago there was talk of US Post
deliberately delaying delivery of postal ballots so as to not reach on time to
the counting centres. There is no doubt, legal battles are shaping up over the
postal ballot and their validity. With the conservatives having upper hand in
the Supreme Court, it seems they might enjoy some advantage. If Judge Amy Coney
Barrett is confirmed before the elections, it might lead to a 6-3 advantage for
the conservatives in the Supreme Court.
Nightmarish
scenarios are being worked for both Democrats and Republicans. Widespread reports
suggest better than expected performance from Joe Biden in the first
Presidential candidate debate. Yet, the reaction of Democrats sympathizers calling
it one of the worst debates in history suggest all did not go well for them.
Emergent reports suggest both the candidates catered to their constituencies. There
perhaps was little attempt to woo the floating voter. Trump seemed to have
vociferous in defence of the whites, his traditional vote base. His refusal to
condemn white supremacy might go do well with them. He is banking on this
silent white voter who catapulted him to power four years ago defying poll
predictions. Trump might be banking on a similar performance wherein though he
falls behind in popular vote a la 2016, he wins the Electoral College. This might
not be a fanciful idea but very realistic.
The first
possibility is of understand the silent white voter. The presence of racism
without doubt presents challenges to the American society. Yet Antifa, BLM etc.
rather than work towards ending racism are leeching on to the same to achieve their
objectives of creating an anarchy and usurping power. They feel that
equivalents of the Arab Spring or the Prague spring might come true in the
United States. The Democrats have latched onto the same something contrary to
their stands in their earlier years. As with many other left-liberal political
forces across the world, Democrats are increasingly adopting the fringe as the mainstream.
Labour in Britain and Congress in India have paid heavily for adopting this
strategy, yet, it would be premature to predict the directions US would take. In
the Democrat pursuit of the fringe of Antifa among others, there is an inherent
danger of losing to the right.
The shrillness
of the Antifa and its cousin across the world make it necessary to be
politically correct in the public discourse. Yet, in private lives, the people’s
preferences are often at variance. In economics, as stated many times before,
it is the gap between the stated preference (expressed in public discourse) and
the revealed preference (expressed through one’s actions) is what needs to be
observed. There is a sharp chance that many whites support the supremacist
attitude of the white. Even if they do not, they are not apologetic about being
white. At the very least they are concerned about the turn of the events and
possible gains by Antifa and its impact on them. Yet, to them it would
virtually suicidal to express their preferences in public given the nature of
discourse US has shaped up in the recent years. Therefore, there is a high degree
of possibility of them hiding their preferences towards Trump owing to the
manifestation of social desirability bias. If this silent voter comes out in
large numbers, it might prove to be an advantage Trump.
US elections are
not fought on national popular vote but through the state popular vote and the Electoral
College. The candidate has to win the Electoral College and not necessarily the
popular vote. In states whether you win 100% vote or you lead by one vote over
your rival doesn’t matter. Even if the lead is just one vote, all the votes in
the college would go the leading candidate. Therefore, certain groups which
might have small presence can be of tremendous value. This perhaps explains
Trump wooing the Indian American community. Whether it was Howdy Modi or
Namaste Trump, the events at least in the implicit sense had the message to the
Indian voter that Trump is better for India. If the Indian voters who
traditionally have voted Democrat shift in sizeable numbers to Trump, he might
take a few critical states. This also explains some Democrat overtures to
Indians and going further perhaps the nomination of Kamala Harris as their Vice
Presidential nominee. It is a different matter that Kamala has been
traditionally anti India in her stance in recent times.
The same modus
operandi works for Jews too. Trump’s attempts to normalize relations between the
Arab World and Israel with great success is likely to see a accretion in Jewish
voters to the Republicans though they have traditionally voted Republican.
Secretary of State Pompeo seeking to meet Pope was seen as an attempt to woo
the Catholic vote. Biden is a Catholic and if elected would only be the second
(JF Kennedy was the first) to be elected to the high office. Yet, Trump’s
overtures to Catholics might be crucial. Catholic vote might not translate in
full to Biden. They are likely to adopt a conservative stance. It is in this
context, the defence of white supremacy at least implicit was visible in
Presidential debate. Trump might have had not so flattering words for India on
handling Chinese virus but perhaps it was domestic compulsions to defend his
own less than glorious record of handling the pandemic.
The first debate
merely saw the two candidates catering to their constituencies. It would be moot to watch their moves as they
seek to infiltrate their rival’s vote bank. The newspapers and television
channels are projecting a Biden lead yet there is a palpable sense of
nervousness. There is an increasing talk on the verdict being decided by the
Supreme Court something like in 2000 or perhaps worse like 1876. The American
media much like its counterparts in the rest of the world aspires to be politically
correct and seeks refuge in left liberal values. Therefore, there is palpable
sense of denial of the US voter preferences. The preferences are undergoing a
change and it might not be unusual to see the whites polarising against blacks
and vice versa. This might certainly not be good news for America but perhaps
sweet for Trump. New York Times got it completely wrong in 2016 and mainly
because of their refusal to see the ground realities. One might not be pleased
with the ground realities, there is lot of things that seem to be concerning
about but nevertheless cannot be ignored. This might be the thing that might
repeated in this election cycle also. One waits with bated breath the outcome of
the elections in the world’s most powerful democracy.
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