The winter is
seemingly setting in Ladakh yet there seems to be no end in sight for the standoff
that has ensued since April this year. The Chinese forces are digging in and
reinforcing. Ditto for the Indian forces. The mind games are truly on. Similarly,
the Indian forces have taken control over series of peaks hitherto unoccupied
and overlooking the Chinese positions. If it was believed China had occupied
the strategic heights in the early part of the summer, as the winter sets in,
it seems Indians have occupied strategic heights in some other sectors. While the
game might moving towards a Prisoner’s Dilemma, yet no one wants to be the ‘Chicken’.
It seems a game to the finish. It is unlikely that the game will have any other
ending other than the fight to the finish in the long run. The current standoff
are more an exercise of preparation for the final war. It is about buying time
for the final preparations. The long negotiations are aimed at wearing down the
enemy. Each side does not want to budge. The Chinese army is arguably short of
winter experience relative to Indians who have experience in Siachen since
1984.
Alongside the
military preparations, one is arguably witnessing a lot of mind games. China
seems to be deliberately provoking Modi. It is no secret that each side needs a
casus belli for the war. Without doubt, either side would want to proclaim the
other as the aggressor. Yet, manufacturing a casus belli in a long standoff
while not difficult is not easy either. There must be a provocation that
sufficiently is higher than the normal rhetoric that often bursts into fights
at the border. Indian psychological games must factor in the same. The latest
in the Chinese provocations seems to be their reiteration that Ladakh is an
illegally created Union Territory. Implied is China does not recognise Ladakh. They
have not recognized Arunachal Pradesh, which they term South Tibet as part of
India. They have provoked a number of times in their treatment of Arunachal
residents when they have sought to visit China. China did not recognize Sikkim
till 2003. Inspite of the recognition, they have sought to alter the border
through creeping acquisition model in Sikkim over a period of time. The
creeping acquisition model began in the 1950s itself when they constructed a
road through Aksai Chin. It is the Indian denial that has allowed China to act
with impunity.
Many newspapers
published ads put by Government of Taiwan on their National Day which perhaps
have infuriated more the Chinese. The setbacks and casualties China suffered in
the clashes in Ladakh were a sort of reality check. They did not expect an
Indian reaction very different from previous occasions. Hence it is plausible
that they are seeking to provoke India further into either backing down or indulging
in some action that would polarise the global opinion against India. They are
betting on a Biden victory in the US to ease pressure on themselves. The Chinese
provocations seem to be aided in no small measure by utterances of Nehru-Gandhi
family, the self-styled crown prince in particular and set of Kashmiri
politicians including the ex-CM Farooq Abdullah. This push and pull approach
reminds of the Afzal Khan approach as the Adil Shah of Bijapur sought to rein
in Shivaji. Shivaji was ensconced in Pratapgad in the Sahyadris. They had to
drag him out and therefore they began a series of provocations. While the initial
ones might have been minor, they tried to test Shivaji’s patience and more importantly
his credibility. Shivaji’s greatest strength was his credibility and they
wanted to attack. Hence Afzal Khan destroyed the Bhavani temple and the Vittal
temple in Tuljapur and Pandharpur. To rub matters further, he slaughtered the
cows religious to Hindu in front of the temple. Shivaji refused to get provoked
and stayed silent. In fact, the whole idea of Afzal Khan was, if Shivaji stayed
silent at these provocations, his hold on the people would considerably reduce.
People would doubt his abilities to counter Afzal Khan and probably begin to
desert him. They might consider him as coward and a leader not capable of
defending their religious places. Shivaji played his own game, waited for his
chance and drew Afzal Khan into his territory before killing him.
The exact modus
operandi seems to be being built upon by the Chinese. There are provocations at
different points on the border besides regular utterances in the media. They are
psychologically designed to weaken the Indian resolve. This is sufficient fodder
for the Indian opposition especially Rahul Gandhi to throw jibes at the Prime
Minister. Narendra Modi’s biggest strength has been his integrity and
credibility. The self-styled pretender to the throne has often said, his goal
is to destroy this credibility no matter the means. He exactly seems to follow
the Chinese prescription. To add is the section of the media which acts as a
mouthpiece for China than to report facts. In Gobblesian terms, reinforcement would
make people believe it to be the truth. There is of course a huge arms lobby
too. The Kashmiri political class has been smarting since the abolition of
Article 370 last year. Having failed to overthrow the Indian state through Pakistani
support, they are now looking towards China. After all, China thinks Pakistan
is the client state. Therefore it would be no surprise to find Kashmiri
political class in the valley now seeking refuge in China. The whole objective
would be to destroy the Modi credibility and trust among the Indian voters.
Modi would come under serious pressure to do something on China. In the
process, he might act hastily. The presumptive Biden rule in the US would
perhaps be not hostile to China and instead might put pressure on the Indians. This
would put India under strain and might buckle down. They want to do a 1962
which completely undid Nehru.
Modi facing the
COVID-19 crisis unleashed by China is also suffering from the economic woes. At
this stage, he knows a war might not be a feasible option. Yet with passage of
time, he has to tackle China if he has to ensure peace in South Asia. The steps
towards Quad are beginning in the direction. It would test of his credibility
to see how long he can postpone the war and fight it on his terms. Modi ideally
would want to draw China a la Shivaji drawing Afzal Khan into his sphere. He wants
to hit China in the economic sphere but that would a very long battle. Public
patience would wear thin. He has to manage the same. Whether Modi would do a
Shivaji or would get provoked by China into something of haste is what time
would tell. Until then the standoff continues.
Comments
Post a Comment