In politics and
elections, there is often a talk about the presence of a silent voter or a shy
voter. There is a belief that these voters generally remain silent about their
preferences, do not voice any opinion on the same and cast their votes silently
for their candidate. These silent votes if large in number can affect the
forecasts of the pollsters. This is because of the silent or the shy voter
refusing to participate or reveal their choice to the pollsters. Very few
pollsters might be in a position to capture their choices.
It is usually
believed that these voters belong to the subaltern classes or castes or those
groups who are usually outside the power circles. They fear reprisals if their
other caste or class groups learn about their choices. It is a different matter
that an idea could be obtained on their voting preferences post the election
results but that is another story. In India, it is usually believed that the
voters of parties such as BSP do not reveal their choices. The BSP voter is
typically a Dalit in Uttar Pradesh and given their power battles, they are
usually afraid to reveal their choice lest they face a reprisal attack. Yet,
contrary to perception, it is just not the voters of the vulnerable sections
that are prone to hide their preferences but also the voters of the affluent
sections too. This is because of social desirability bias or seeking to appear
woke in public utterances.
For long, even the typical BJP voter was
usually silent. It was perhaps not easy to express a pro-Hindu preference in
India where narrative was set by woke constituency. It was something cool to
appear that one is pro-diversity, one accepts the deracinated Hindu thoughts,
and one supports the alternative line of thinking on grounds of allowing
dissent among others. While LK Advani for the first time made it possible to
appear Hindu without being apologetic, it was the social media that made
possible for the Hindu right to emerge on a certain scale in the Indian
cultural and social thought milieu. Modi’s public appearance of being
unapologetic Hindu has made it possible for the Hindu conservative voter to be
vocal with their preferences. The fear of being castigated as narrow bigot by
the left liberal ecosystem had made the Hindu conservative advocates go silent.
The concept of a
silent vote assumes interest in the approaching US elections. President Trump
has a constituency of white voters who are often accused of being racist and
supremacist. History does offer sufficient evidence but modern compulsions make
them hide their preferences. In the current debate in US, it seems that
anything supportive of whites and in particular the white male would be deemed
offensive in public. It is perhaps cool to talk about the white excesses on the
coloured population and further criticise the whites. The white population
indulging in self-flagellation would appear to be strategy that seems to work.
In terms of game
theory, the dominant strategy for the whites is precisely to be appear as a
silent voter. If the whites express their true preference, there is a
significant risk of them being treated as a sort of social outcasts. Moreover,
there would be attacks on them on social media and other online forums for not
defending the so-called democratic rights of the others. The rise of Antifa
among others who while least interested in empowering the under-privileged
communities want to leech on them to secure power makes the whites more vulnerable to express their
opinion. In economics, there is a preference gap as measured by the distance
between the stated preference and the revealed preference. While the stated
preference could be towards appeasing and appearing woke, the revealed
preference might be completely to the contrary. This was often true with the
black and the other communities who faced backlash from the whites. Yet the
milieu in the US seems to have changed. In 2016 too, many whites too remained
silent and this constituency saw Trump sail through in those swing states.
As US approaches
the polls, the white voter and their preferences would determine the fortunes
of President Trump and his challenger ex-VP Joe Biden. The polls are perhaps
not capturing that in some sense. Though the lead currently for Biden is around
7%, the past record of 2016 indicates a possibility of surprises. Aside of US
election dynamics, it would be useful to theorise the logic of the silent
voter. It would be instructive to decode their logic in remaining silent. There
must be a sound reason for them to have a variance in their stated preference
and revealed preference. It boils down to the concept of cost-benefit analysis.
Each individual would basically think in terms of the marginal costs and the
marginal benefits. The marginal costs of expressing their true opinion could be
high. There might be ostracization, or at worse physical attacks. Even at best,
people might tend to look them down. There could be threat to their careers as
some of them have found out. The left liberals across the world would not mind
destroying the careers and lives of their opponents. Some evidence is available
in the context of India. Therefore, it would be rather prudent to adopt
discretion as better part of valour. Yet, in the ballot boxes, there would be
no such constraints and thus relatively speaking able to exercise their true
choices. The marginal benefits on the other hand of offering your true views in
public are relatively small. The benefits of remaining silent are quite higher.
There could be quite a bit of praise and perhaps some upward mobility by
tending to appear woke. The chances of peer pressure pulling one down would be
relatively less. For some entrepreneurs it might be a signal to their peer
constituency of appearing woke, catering to justice of downtrodden and profit seeking
greedy vultures as capitalists are often projected to be. There might be
professionals who might be subjected to blackmail from the liberal system for
their views that stand contrast to the leftist world view. When taken
holistically, it would obviously be a dominant strategy for the right wing constituency
to appear woke while in practice they might be in contrast to the same. This applies
in electoral politics too and thus the rationale for the silent or the shy
voter.
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