Economics and Eclipses!

Eclipses evoke fear, mystery and awe alike. For ancients, it was certainly a mystery. They would have been ignorant of a natural phenomenon that does not experience a frequent occurrence. During total solar eclipse when sun disappears and darkness abounds in the midst of the day, they would have certainly been fear struck and panic ensued for those few moments before the sun began to take ‘rebirth’. Given zero knowledge of science, it would have been most likely to be attributed to super natural forces.

Within perhaps centuries, mankind probably make sense of eclipses as phenomenon that occur though the natural linkages might not have been established. To some ancient civilizations, there were astronomers who could predict eclipses in advance. Evidences of eclipses are found in ancient Hindu scriptures and mythology like Mahabharata etc

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Given the supernatural attribution to eclipses, it gave rise to several theories and practices. Astrological significance would have added to the awe around the eclipse. What we term as superstitions today, would have made their appearance in trying to ward off the ‘ill-effects’ of eclipses. There were rituals prescribed to ward off the evils and the society would have followed diligently. Any errors and perhaps even chance consequence of an ill effect would have been attributed to violation of rituals during eclipse and thus reinforced those practices and rites which were to be followed during and after the eclipse. Fasting, no-work, taking bath post eclipse would have been few practices that would take root and pass over the centuries.

With passage of time, solar and lunar eclipses have been understood in detail. Perhaps it was in ancient India that it was first understood. Maybe if was diffusion of knowledge or independently discovered in the West. The modern Western theory of course makes us believe that it was only in the Enlightenment era that scientific logic of eclipses (solar or lunar) were first discovered.

Irrespective of the origins of identifying the right phenomenon, people do continue to follow rituals, rites, practices etc even today. In India, given a fundamental duty is to develop scientific temper of mind, is it something to be promoted and fostered. The scientific spirit was of course an invention of post Renaissance Europe whose later mandate extended to talk down any ancient practice as stupid. India with imperialist way of thinking was sought to be deracinated with this scientific ideals. While scientific ideals are good, yet the idea of individual practice of eclipse falls under ‘sincerely held belief’. These beliefs are passed to generations for millennia and in more ways than not hardly harm anyone or infringe anybody’s rights. As long as they follow in their personal domain, it least matters what they do is rational or otherwise.

Yet as economists argue, it is a rational activity. Rationality is not about adoption of ‘scientific temper’ as defined in the Western models of thinking, but economic rationality is about an action that one undertakes knowing the costs and benefits of the same and does so consistently. So sincerely held belief is an outcome of rational action undertaken consistently though it might appear at odds with so called modernist thinking. To many, such practices might be a response to what might be termed as ‘moral incentive’ or might even be a dictum ‘caution than risk taking’!

Eclipses and the associated sincerely held beliefs bring to the fore their own externalities and spillovers. Since many fast during the duration of the eclipse, should restaurants remain open or closed. In remaining open, people who might not fast during eclipse might use it to take care of their hunger pangs yet the owner of restaurant and the employees might have their own personal beliefs which might compel closing of the restaurant. Irrespective of the beliefs, does the eatery remaining open attract the customers? The footfalls might fall far below the daily average for the said period. It brings us to the most famous chicken egg question of economics “ Does supply create its demand?” or “ Does Demand create Supply?”! Figure out!!