Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Today's Imagination, Tomorrow''s Reality: Sci-Fi and Entrepreneurship


Imagination with all its wildest possibilities yearn to be released from the human mind into actual reality. The expression of grammar of imagination might be story, visual, movie, art, audio, novel or oral conversation. The outcome however remains the same: far reaching, wild, perhaps bizarre, perhaps practically unimagined set of things that human might ever create and use.

The outcome, to its progenitor might appear most marvelous, irrespective whether the public at lare perceive it to be crap or otherwise. Yet few might escape the crap trap and generate into hard core imagination underpinned science fiction expressed through visual, written or audio means.  Science fiction is best expressed as an output generated with infinite degrees of freedom for imagination.

Science fiction is not a mere work of fantasy. Adventures and challenges endear to humans thus the foundation for visualizing a universe with those infinite challenges. Invariably, there exists a hero who conquers in the midst of extreme adversity. In fact, the story of human is celebrating those conquests of adversity. A perfectly ordered world a la Huxley’s brave new world, might be boring. Even in Huxleyian universe there existed the rebel unable to come to terms to the prevailing order.

Human desires remain unfulfilled given the current state of technology and environment. Humans might desire wings to fly but currently it is not possible. Science fiction precisely addresses the same by imagining the universe where humans could fly. It remains in the realm of fiction, nevertheless it seeks to show a window, however narrow it might seem to a way of fulfillment of human desires. The emergence of virtual reality, augmented reality, virtual worlds on the net like Second Life,  are outlets for the expression of fulfillment of fantasy.

While imagination might travel into unconquered frontiers, there is nonetheless a realm of actual which is point in the journey of achieving the imagined possibility. Therefore there is something possible and something actual. Actual in incremental steps or quantum leap lead to the creation of the possible.

Sci-fi hence is a shadow of very distant future. It manifests itself as a 'kangaroo jump' from present to future without the barriers the current day science imposes. Post Renaissance, the West in its era of scientific temper, sought to boost human imagination to all possible degrees leading to mushrooming of strong genre of sci-fi. This genre has existed more than century& half (literature, theatre). India perhaps could never replicate of the same despite Bollywood’s unashamed imitation of Hollywood. Notwithstanding Spielberg plagiarising Ray, hardly any domestic sci-fi has emerged that could be trendsetter to real life creations. Tragic is India lies far behind in sci-fi perhaps on the distant periphery.

Sci-fi irrespective of the quality of content, has numerous spill overs. Innovation is essentially, a product of tapping latent demand through circumvention of price underpinned access barriers. Yet price barrier might itself be a product of tech barrier that impedes the creation of goods and services. Normally innovations move in incrementally. In the frontier between actual and possible lies something called adjacent possible. The concept of adjacent possible shows the steps through which a series of incremental innovations, the actual can traverse in becoming the possible.

However, there needs to be imagined a possible. Sci-fi facilitates the same. Therefore it becomes a lead indicator for tech underpinned entrepreneurship. Any businessman seeks to fulfil certain latent demand. In absence of such demand too, entrepreneurship by offering supply of certain possible, allow the creation of demand.

From 3D printing to cyber space to submarines to mobile phones all were first imagined in science fiction. They were perhaps the ‘impossibles’ of yesteryears. Yet with passing time, they became the reality. The risk taking entrepreneurs for fulfilling certain customer requirements innovate bringing to reality the realm of fiction. The first submarine was invented in an inspiration derived from Jules Verne’s Twenty Thousand Leagues Beneath the Sea.

Sci fi whether fiction or movie or theatre or gaming presents to the audience the ‘possibles’ without having to factor in the degrees of freedom. It sets the motion of thinking among several people few of whom might desire to see the possible translated into actual. It is this small niche that begins working on the translation. There would be more than willing set of eccentrics who would bet on these ideas translated into practice and thus willing to finance them. The path to the translation into actual would be fraught with uncertainties and there is more than decent chance of failure. Yet failures are viewed as a necessary learning curve into the evolution of the actual. Further, the step is not to convert the possible into actual but a series of incremental steps in identifying the adjacent possible and converting the set of adjacent possible into actual. The distant possible slowly converts itself into near possible thus paving the way for the actual. As the possible nears the actual, further distant possibles are visualized and the journey gets a new dimension and destination. The destination is perhaps never reached and is a continuum. The continuum is not merely new products themselves but improvements in the existing goods and services.

A sine qua non for progress into distant and near distant possible is imagination of the possible and thus science fiction irrespective of the grammar of expression serve as lead indicators or testing ground for ideas. In Stan Shih’s Smiley curve, the ideas account for highest value add and these ideas more often than not are moored in sci-fi.

Coming back to India’s failure in building a sci-fi ecosystem, it needs a story to be told, perhaps for another day.

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