As one comes to terms with the horrors of
the recent massacre of school children in Peshawar, What probably went
unnoticed were the names of the children who either died or escaped. Names like Osama, Dawood Ibrahim seemed
common. In a world where names are
usually associated with aesthetic or even predictive powers, these names mean
something. If names are meant to convey certain signals, these do certainly
reflect in a way contemporary mindset of an average Pakistani. Stephen Levitt in his bestseller,
Freakonomics goes on to discuss the economics behind names. Yet, the
explanation does not answer satisfactorily, the state of affairs. Incidentally,
the broader theme around which Levitt’s ideas revolves around- role of
incentives; might help us in some way to understand what it means.
At the heart of the society and its
inhabitants is the need to achieve, urge to succeed, climb the higher layers of
the power pyramid, places oneself at the apex of the profession. Yet to suggest
the field is highly competitive might be an understatement. Be it glamour
professions like entertainment, advertising, sports, power driven professions
like politics, economic professions like business, technical professions like
engineering, design, software scientific professions like medicine, basic
sciences, the scenario is pretty much the same. There is a tournament. The
players start the lowest pyramid in the tournament. Through their talent,
efforts, perseverance and may be bit of luck climb the ladders and the lucky
few get to dominate at the very top. The rewards too are skewed highly in favor
of those at the top of those pyramids and reduce considerably at the lower
echelons of the ecosystem. At the onset
itself, it is clear that odds would be high but the lure of the rewards at the
top encourage the players to enter the tournament. There might be a long period
of substandard rewards but the anticipated fruits of reaching the top make the
players thrive in the system. Some realize
soon their shortcomings to strike gold and may exit choosing alternative
professions while some continue to linger on. Barriers to entry may be high but
not sufficiently high enough to prevent those who have talent and willing to
put an effort gaining entry into the elite club. This tournament cutting across
professions and skills make the society thrive. The role models created by the
tournament make the rest sufficiently motivated to keep on being in the game
and encouraging the children to succeed where the parents have failed. The much
talked about ‘Great American Dream’ is an example for this. Can this tournament
driven on incentives explain the divergences between current standings of India
and Pakistan? To explore answers to this question, let us little facts about
India and Pakistan.
The median age for Pakistan population is
21.2 years (2010 estimates. For India it is just over 25 years). Implied is
half the population is below 21 years and in the immediate future would be
entering the job market. The state has
to provide the environment for job creation and also meet the growing
aspirations for the young population. Moreover, there is also need to sustain a
thriving modern education system in the country. An examination of the career options available
to this age group in Pakistan makes an interesting reading and further
comparison with India brings out stark differences.
A child or youth in India have a multitude
of options to choose from. Despite much maligned Indian education system, India
can still boast of schools, undergraduate profession and non professional
colleges, post graduate colleges, centers for excellence which are of quite
high standard. Does an average Pakistani student have access to the similar facilities?
While Indian education system churns out students to prepare and prosper in
host of fields, such a system is absent or accessible at best to very few in
Pakistan. In technology circles which view differentials in capacity and access
as major barriers to technology adoption, this can turn out to be a
differential that might remain major barrier.
The tournament is wide open in Indian
context. If Pakistan politics is
preserve of few wealth families rooted in a feudal past, there are a number of
instances where grass root workers have risen to occupy high public positions
sheer on merit and hard work. This is true not just of present but even in the
past. Similarly business establishments in Pakistan are either controlled
directly or indirectly by the military or is an exclusive club of the chosen
few. Despite from humble and non privileged background, many Indians have
excelled in civil services. The same cannot be said in our neighboring country.
A child in India dreams of growing into an engineer, software expert, doctor, scientist
because it is in this environment that it grows in. This is hardly a case for
Pakistan. Several instances abound of
Indians from modest background that has succeeded in sports. Very few Pakistani
cricketers have actually emerged outside Lahore-Karachi circuit.
An Indian can dream of being Narendra Modi
or Dhirubhai Ambani or Narayan Murthy or Amitabh Bachchan or Sachin Tendulkar
or Kiran Bedi or Saina Nehwal or Aishwarya Rai or Kalpana Chawla. Can Pakistani
child dream and even if so is there is a remote possibility of reaching similar
heights. What does a Pakistani child grow up? For the whole lot of population
that is soon tapping the doors of the employment market there apparently are
two avenues to succeed. The first is the army and second are the Jihadi forces.
The army has controlled a large part of Pakistani politics, economy and society
and quite a few non elitist officers have made it big. The second and probably
the relatively easier option is the jihadi forces. See the role models the Pakistani
society offers. Osama Bin Laden, Dawood Ibrahim, Mullah Omar, Hafiz Sayeed, Zakiur
Lakhvi, etc. the kind of power they possess and the appeal they command itself
reflects the state of affairs in the society. These are the role models which
children aspire to be since they are the only one available. Imagine an
environment wherein prosperity and progress belongs to privileged few, barriers
to entry deter a large sections of population from succeeding in host of
professions, the Jihadi groups or the army are the only one which offer you a
‘career path’ to the top, what would one do. It is thus not surprising that
current demographics offer fertile catchment area for exporting jihadi forces
across the world.
The solution for Pakistan to redeem itself
is simple. Open the doors of the economy to its youth. Give the younger generation the opportunities
to succeed across sectors and professions. The new role models have to be
created. People respond to incentives. Preferences are changed when incentives
change. Currently, incentives are too ‘lucrative’ to be either with jihadi
groups or in the army. Unless Pakistan induces the change in these preferences,
it will be sheer impossible for it to break out of the current quagmire it
finds itself in. The million dollar question however is whether current
establishment wants things to change. The observation of their actions suggest
far from it. It is they who benefit the most from the current ecosystem and
would like to perpetuate. Lack of employment opportunities might create large
scale social unrest but the apparent feeling is the jihadi forces can absorb
this and directing it against India. Nothing is worse than the above scenario
being reality.
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