The war clouds
seem to be looming around Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. A two front war too
cannot be ruled out implying the war might expand to Jammu and Kashmir and the
Western states. It is not discounting the possibility of war around Himachal
Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim. China seems to be belligerent and the recent
setbacks seem to harden its stand. Any backing out would be setback for
President Xi himself. It is unlikely they are going back to the 1993 agreement
and the subsequent ones. Perhaps too them, it seems a sort of prestige to
salvage their setbacks from Galwan till Pangong. India perhaps at this moment
has little option but to confront the Chinese. The Indians are demonstrating
patience is some indicator to the world that India does not want aggressive
posture or solution to the problem but desire a genuine peace. Having
demonstrated that, India seems reconciled to the war. With the Chinese virus
raging around in the country, it would be a tough task to face the Chinese
forces. Yet, the morale of the army is very high and in all probability will a
give a bloody nose or two to China. The memories of Nathu La 1967 should be a
reminder to China of what the Indian army can do to them. The ghosts of 1962
need to be exorcised for once and all times. There can never be an ideal
situation and India must make use of this opportunity.
The current events in Ladakh more are
reflecting a game of chess before the actual combat. Each side is trying to
jostle for positions so that they get the vantage point when the war actually
arrives. India is moving in with supplies to stock it for the winter. India is
expecting a long haul so that it has to get ready for the supplies to feed the
armed forces for the whole of winter. India is rapidly expanding its
infrastructure across the border regions to enable transport movement as and
when necessary. Tanks are being up into the border and it should not be a
surprise if one were to observe the tank battles at the highest battleground in
the world. One doubts whether tanks have been used for combat at the
battlefields higher than the ones in the plains and mountains of Ladakh and
Tibet. It is a different matter for the Chinese since they have to push in
supplies from long distances. Yet in the absence of a tactical victory or a
face saver, it is almost impossible for the Chinese to go back to the pre-April
positions. They too must be preparing for a winter haul. Therefore as such, in
the current round, there is a lot psychological games being played around. Each
negotiating at the military commanders level is a manifestation of not just a
mind game but buying time till preparations are on.
China seems
insecure in its dealings. At this stage, it would be apt to draw comparisons to
the German state in the years leading upto the World War I. In the post
Westaphalian Europe, the continental geopolitics was underpinned on the premise
of balance of powers. Any disruption of the same by the Habsburgs of Austria or
earlier Spain, or by France or by the newly emergent Germans was counter
flanked by other central powers with the support of the flank powers like
Britain and Russia. Britain and Russia through their unique geography had a
special status in settling the continental power disputes. The balance of power
was buttressed in the post Napoleonic era especially by the Austrian diplomat
Metternich. Bismarck understood the dynamics and built Germany without so as to
convey the disruption of the continental European balance of power. Yet post
Bismarck, the dynamics in Germany changed. Kaiser William I was determined to
alter the geography to his advantage. While the other European powers in their
race for industrial revolution and markets for their industries, had embarked
on massive colonization project which Germany felt was left behind. While
Germany did acquire a few colonies in Africa, Pacific and concessions in China,
it was nowhere compared to its European counterparts like the British, French, Portuguese
or even the Spanish and the Dutch. Geography seemed to constrain Germany and it
was this geographical disadvantage was sought to be changed by the Kaiser in
alignment with Austrian and Turkish allies.
Xi Jinping seems
to resemble Kaiser in many ways. China post Mao had adopted a low profile. They
went in for industrialization and globalization in a step wise manner and did
not anything that could attract adverse attention from the West in terms of
access to markets. Their globalization approach stepped up post Tianmen. For
Deng and other leaders, the globalization was a way to make the West overlook
Chinese abuses and cracking down of dissent internally. During the Cold War,
especially post 1970s onwards, China had aligned itself with US ostensibly in a
fight against Soviet Union. The role of China as an anti-Soviet pole along with
this huge market and labour pool producing goods at near zero price made West
turn a blind eye and allow it a free ride to the economic apex. Under Xi,
things however changed. The Chinese no longer are content playing a discreet
role but want to step up their expansionism. In true Chinese fashion, they
might have impacted by the virus they have released but want to convey to the
world that they are perhaps the strongest at this stage. Therefore, they have
been provoking Japan, Australia, ASEAN countries, Korea, India among others.
ASEAN countries have their own multiple contradictions and are unlikely to
stand up against China while continuing to make some symbolic noises. It is
therefore left to India to stand up to China. Given the way German hostility to
France and Britain that shaped up the World War I, the apparent hostility of China
towards India will probably result in the emergent Asian war. Both India and
China aspire to be superpowers and yet the battlefields of Asia aren’t big
enough to accommodate both. At least that seems to be the perception. It is
akin to the inability of Pandavas and Kauravas to coexist in the same power
structure and apparatus.
Like the Kaiser,
Xi Is determined to break the equilibrium that has existed for long in the
Asian political system. The system is not of course merely Asian with Russia,
US and Australia too being an integral part of the system. The Europeans are perhaps
too soaked in woke to make of a material difference though Britain has
interests in Hong Kong. The world is perhaps moving an Asiatic version of the European
situation in the first decade and half of the twentieth century. It however
remains to be seen whether the battles will continue to be localised as they
are currently or will there be an expansion of the war theatre encompassing
other countries. All that is needed is a tinder to light the forest.
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