Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Mahabharata and Lessons for Foreign Policy

 

Indian scholarship in realpolitik, foreign policy, strategic affairs, defence, among other disciplines has traditionally found itself rooted through the prism of Western thoughts and scholars than indegenious models. Indian scholars might bandy about Machiavelli but would shy from Chanakya, might draw thoughts from the Bible but would hesitate to quote from Mahabharata or its central piece the Gita, would discuss Hobbes or Rosseau but remain clueless whether any Indian thought leaders have similar thought processes. The answers can be varied. Most Indian scholarship or treatises of leadership, politics, society etc. remained lost and undiscovered till recent times. A manuscript of Chanakya’s Arthasastra was discovered in Mysore only 1905 or so. It was only after that there was an interest in Chanakya and his thoughts. Therefore Chanakya was equated or compared to Machiavelli rather than the other way round. It is different matter Machiavelli was evil and built a theory that supported the means as long as they achieved the ends something justifiable for the rulers he served. Thus, while Machiavelli theorised justifying the actions of his patrons including the divine right to rule, Chanakya on the other hand prescribed the do’s and don’ts for the rulers. It was a guidance to the king rather than the justification for the king’s actions thus morally binding document.

 

Indians discovered their ancient sources of scholarship only through the help of Western scholars and theoreticians. It was Max Mueller who studied Sanskrit and founded the discipline of Indology. Therefore, Indology by its very nature became a discipline in the Western universities before it became a staple part of Indian universities. Therefore, the readings of Indology were rooted through those scholars including Mueller who studied Indology and interpreted for the Western audience. Rather than studying directly through original sources or indigenous sources, Indians had to depend on secondary sources or interpretations of Indian scholarship by the Westerners. Indians who sought to study through the inner prism or indigenous prism found themselves isolated. The Aryan Invasion theory among others find itself popularised because of this. However, in recent times there has been revived interest in decoding statecraft and realpolitik through the works of Chanakya, Mahabharata etc.

 

This aspect is interesting covered in this post by C Raja Mohan in the Indian Express. This piece is written on the book “Indian Way: Strategies for Uncertain World”. The book written by Dr. S. Jaishankar, the Indian External Affairs Minister is bound to be discussed at length in many a diplomatic parlour and might be kindling interest in the ancient pieces of Indian scholarship in the Western strategic affairs circles. As Raja Mohan talks about the book, he mentions, there is something to learn from across all strategic traditions and not necessarily from the Western source alone. In fact, a movement away from the Western source might actually be beneficial.

 

At one glance, if every scholar places their reliance on single source of leadership thought process, it would become easy replicable and loses the source of advantage. Each country is best placed to achieve a headstart or gain a psychological advantage at the least when the other countries find it unpredictable to decipher its strategy. A lot of mystery attached to China is perhaps significantly due to its ostensible following Confucian or Sun Tzu model of strategic thought process which remained untouched in the West. The West learnt China through Chinese sources and scholars and not independently as was the case with India. Similarly, Japanese thought process rooted in the ninjas and other mysteries find itself attracted with a certain allure in the West. In the Indian context, the reluctance of the Indian scholars themselves have been a reason of neglect of strategic dimensions of the Indian ancient thought leadership structures and theories.

 

Dr. Jaishankar borrows references from Mahabharata apparently as he builds his case for the Indian stand to turn more practical and realistic grounded on realpolitik rather than moral compunctions.. Two instances are illustrated by Dr. Raja Mohan from this book to highlight the Indian non-alignment conundrum. The first was ostensibly a reference to Balarama, the elder brother of Lord Krishna. Balarama’s sister was married to Arjuna and his brother Lord Krishna was the strategist in chief of the Pandavas whereas he personally favoured Duryodhana whom he originally wanted to marry Subhadra before Arjuna eloped with her. Not dissimilar to India’s predicament in the Cold War era, he decided to sit out of the war. He in fact went on a pilgrimage before returning in anger over the direction of war. He returned in time for the mace battle between Bheema and Duryodhana. All his non alignment achieved was nothing except to be mere spectator in the final battle though was given a titular status of a referee in that battle. Another reference which happens in the Mahabharata would be Rukmi, the king of VIdarbha and brother of Rukmini, wife of Lord Krishna. He usually thought high of himself. He apparently used his boasting skills to make a pitch or bargain with both sides but ended up getting up accepted by neither. India perhaps did not face this issue in some ways. But in certain other ways, our ability to boast of going the third way did end up isolating us. Perhaps our stand on CTBT during 1996 final negotiations illustrates this in some way. India’s intransigence was more of its inability to conduct nuclear tests before the deadline rather the alleged have and have-nots that was sought to be imposed by CTBT that made India a perennial thorn in the bush for the global negotiating community. 

 

Dr. Mohan quotes Dr. Jaishankar as the stating in the book, Mahabharata being the “most vivid distillation of Indian thoughts”. Further, apparently Mahabharata presents an account of the complexities of the challenges that the decision makers face as they confront the ground realities day in and day out. Apparently to Jaishankar, Mahabharata presents the best illustration of every dimension of decision making in the international power calculus. Naturally since the Indian foreign minister talks at length on the this, the study of Mahabharata, Bhagvad Gita and many other Indian puranas or epics might find themselves a subject of interest once again for students and practitioners of realpolitik once again. As PM Modi said recently and was subject matter of a blog, India can adapt to both the Krishna the flutist enchanting Radha as also with Krishna wielding Sudarshan Chakra killing Shishupala after forgiving his one hundred sins as promised to his mother.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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