The last phase
of Bihar elections are about to be held on November 7, 2020. The counting of
votes will happen on November 10, 2020. Along with these elections the counting
of by-elections in several states for their Assemblies will also be held. The most
interesting part of this election was Bihar going to polls in mere three
phases. This represents the journey Bihar has travelled over the years. It was
not long when Bihar polls would be full of violent incidents, people dying in
clashes. Mercifully, the current round of elections have gone peacefully. In fact,
the peaceful conduct of polls in three phases in an environment aggravated by
the pandemic unleashed by the Chinese virus represents a case for India to move
towards a single or two phase polls in the near future.
Amidst these
elections, the pointers from Madhya Pradesh would no doubt be significant. While
the BJP might win absolute majority, if it does fail to win significant number of
seats it would herald a sort of comeback for the Congress besides a signal for
decline in the hold of Jyotiraditya Scindia. The elections in Manipur too would
point to the stability or otherwise of the ruling BJP in the state. it might be
sort of curtain raiser for the 2022 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.
Gujarat’s vote would perhaps reflect the state’s tolerance or otherwise of
Congress leaders jumping ship. But usually bye-elections do not point to
significant portends barring few circumstances. Therefore, it would be without
doubt, the eyes would be on the Bihar elections, the largest exercise being
conducted in the shadow of COVID-19 anywhere in the world.
Many observers believe
the electoral verdict is a foregone conclusion. Having said that, to borrow
from cricket, elections too are a game of glorious uncertainties. Nothing would
be definitive so as to speak till the last vote is counted. Therefore, it would
be pertinent to have a look at the scenario as it stands in the elections.
Bihar of course has been politically vocal. A typical Bihari is politically
conscious yet the voting figures in Bihar do not normally reflect that. The current
percentage in voting too stands below 60% something similar to past elections. The
shadow the Chinese pandemic might also be a factor in the relative lacklustre
voting. The battle is between the two major alliances, the NDA represented by
BJP and JD(U) while the opposition UPA is represented by an alliance of RJD,
Congress and the left parties including CPI, CPI(M) and CPI(ML). there is also
a third force, the LJP contesting in the JDU seats but supporting BJP
elsewhere. There are other minor formations like RLSP, BSP, JAP among others
that are trying their luck in the hustings.
On paper, the
ruling NDA seems to be sitting pretty and likely to score a relatively easier
victory. Yet, the fatigue with Nitish Kumar is something that cannot be missed.
Most observers are indicating a sort of an anti-establishment wave against
Nitish. Therefore, they believe that Nitish’s seat would shrink and fall
perhaps even below RJD. Yet while there is an apparent fatigue, Nitish cannot
be underestimated. Time and again, he has proved his support among women for
his prohibition policy and the Mahadalits and extreme backward classes for his
reservation policy. These sections are likely to continue backing him. The fatigue
is more visible among those BJP supporters who are tired of Nitish’s repeated
volte-face. They might look towards Chirag Paswan’s LJP. Many believe that LJP
is propped up by the BJP to rein in Nitish. It must be observed how this party
would perform. Both BJP and JD-U have left a few seats each to minor players. It
must be said given the past precedent these seats are as good as lost.
Meanwhile, RJD
is handicapped by the absence of its founder Laloo Prasad Yadav currently in
prison after conviction in the fodder scam. His sons Tejasvi and Tej Pratap are
leading the battle from the front but their inexperience might be a handicap. They
have attracted crowds leading to speculation of a RJD hawa of sorts but the
crowd typically is of Yadavs and Muslims, their traditional votebank. Furthermore,
the party is troubled by the weak links of its alliance partner the Congress. The
Congress at the moment seems to be a burden on the alliance rather than a
catalyst to diversify the vote base. The left parties barring CPI-ML have lost
influence over the years and might remain also ran.
The BJP seems to
be performing very well as per the ground reports. It is perhaps evident and
undisputed that BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the elections. It
must be seen whether BJP with LJP and other minor players are able to hit the
majority mark thus enabling it to form the government independent of JD-U. Yet,
it is unlikely that BJP will opt to form the government and is likely to
continue with Nitish. The obvious reason would be the signals it would send to
other parts of the country especially Maharashtra where its alliance partner
dumped it for CMship. It is not that BJP would perpetually continue with Nitish
but at the moment irrespective of the performance, BJP might not ditch Nitish.
The smaller
parties continue to contest numerous seats but their reach is limited. While
Upendra Kushuwa or Pappu Yadav or even BSP or Owasi might claim to have
votebanks, past evidence doesn’t project optimism towards them. They might be
vote-cutters in a few seats here and there but unlikely to make any damage to
the mainstream parties. The independents and rebels might make noise but their
damage is likely to be in very few seats. These become important only when
there is a cliff hanger and not a relatively easier election.
While the opposition
would want to see these as referendum on Modi government, it is unlikely to be
one. If the NDA wins, without doubt, it would be the BJP which would have
pulled it through and thus the credit must go to Modi. In case of defeat, it is
the Nitish fatigue that would be responsible and could not be countered by the
Modi counter offensive. All said and done, though the verdict might be a
foregone conclusion, the elections as with any other one offers fascinating
moments for the observers and analysts alike.
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