Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Social Media, Alternate Reality and Real Life Conversations

 

The post “Deciphering the Social Media Ranting” discussed the possible reasons why people rant on social media especially Twitter. The post used the theory of signalling in economics to explain why people rant about each and everything to get noticed. A simple post might not attract attention but continuous rants and slogan shouting would perhaps enable them to get noticed, get followers and perhaps at some point achieve a sort of celebrity status. It is just not mere ranting but the way people form opinions and sort to push their opinion that would be of interest. Often, it is made to believe that the opinion of the social media becomes the opinion of the people. It is made to believe that the social media represents the cross section of the people and thus appropriate sample of the views of the population at large. It is made to believe that the mood of the country or the society is best reflected through perusal of the views being expressed through the social media and other conversation forums be it Twitter or Whatsapp.

 

Yet, at times or rather most of the times, one finds the total opposite. The opinions reflected as the public mood in the social media is often at odds with what is revealed through the offline public mood. An interesting case study would be the behaviour of the Indian Hindu right wing that have captured significant space of conversation on Twitter in particular. There is often a projection that they represents the interests or at least the feelings of the Hindu society at large. As noted in the post linked above, the right wing in India seems to be constantly in a state of perpetual anger on social media. They seem to find fault with almost everything what the government does. In the last few days, the anger has been directed mainly over the ban on bursting crackers on environmental grounds. The tweet of the Health Minister Dr. Harshvardhan to celebrate Green Diwali has touched perhaps a raw cord. It is no surprise that the Hindu right or at least significant sections celebrated Diwali not with their family or friends but through ranting against the health minister through the day. Through the Bihar elections and beyond, their anger has been directed against Sushil Modi, the Deputy Chief Minister of the State. Through the Arnab Goswami case, there were constant rants and abuse against the BJP leadership both at Centre and States. In fact, hardly anyone went after the MVA government which had arrested Arnab but seemed to find fault with the Centre. It was as if Modi or Fadnavis who were responsible for Arnab’s troubles. Devendra Fadnavis, the former Chief Minister of Maharashtra is almost every day at the receiving end of their abuse.

 

Incidentally, it is not about criticism or ranting but the sheer abuse that gets directed at the leadership. The answers to this conundrum would have to be examined. It begs to reason why the abuse is directed at a few. Yet in the offline public mood, there is very little to support this. Contrary to the perception being created of RTE or temple control are very critical issues facing the country, the electoral mood is hardly weighing these factors. Neither RTE nor temple control figure in the list of the top priorities as per various opinion polls in different elections. In fact, Modi won a resounding mandate despite RW abuse for his alleged inaction in sorting out the distortions created by RTE or temple control or cracker ban or minority scholarship or Sabrimala women entry etc. Therefore it is all the more puzzling why one finds discord between what is expressed in social media and the mood on the ground.

 

The vertical conversation underpinned public sphere was disrupted through a horizontal conversation sphere when the social media made its entrance. The online sphere demolished the monopolization of conversation by a select few. In India, constantly demonized for being Hindus, the activists on the Hindu right finally found a forum wherein they could discuss their grievances. These grievances might not have anything to do with electoral politics. They perhaps had hardly any electoral traction but significant nevertheless for Hindu cause. The RTE as applied to institutions did create non-level playing field. So was the case for temple control by the government. The Hindu right used the social media, Twitter in particular to place their points. These points were captured by the rest of the Twitterati. Denied space by the mainstream, Twitter became the forum for disseminating Hindu right causes. It became a tool for mobilization of those in favour of Hindu revivalism. It became a space for those constrained by woke culture in expressing their true preferences. It became a space for those finding others with similar thought processes but unable to express on account of communication barriers created by the brick and mortar media culture. Yet while there were significant developments on the positive side, there were certain dystopian tendencies too creeping in. Without doubt, there would be dichotomy between those which were important for Hindu revivalism but not necessarily electorally relevant. Secondly, there would be issues that would be electorally relevant, significant for Hindu development but not critical or core Hindu issues as the right on the social media defined it.

 

To the new voice of the Indian right, these were long term issues and thus wanted to attract the attention of the government. Yet to others who wanted to carve a space for themselves, this became a tool for expressing themselves as so called experts. They took it to another level wherein these became the issues for the government to tackle. Toilet construction or Jan-Dhan could wait or was hardly important relative to the freeing of temples from government control. Any electoral setback was viewed in this light. To a vast section of the Hindu pretenders, failure to act on RTE or on temple control or continuance of minority scholarships were reasons for the setback and not on the economic or the other social factors. So what emerged out of the conversation was an alternate reality that had nothing to do with the real life. Modi won decisively in 2019 as he did in 2014 touching upon the real issues. While the issues raised on social media had their significance, taking it to a point wittingly or otherwise created sense of diminishing returns to the conversations. Anything adverse or minor digressions were frowned and abused thus created a distorted conversation away from what was intended. The hijacking was complete. The process continues without any chance of revival given most of the genuine conversations have moved on to club goods like Whatsapp or Telegram. It was the law of unintended consequences that undid social media for the right as the alternate reality did not live up to the real world results.

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