The second wave of the Chinese virus
induced pandemic seems to have abated in most parts of the country. Yet Kerala
continues to defy the projections. Maharashtra too continues to report high
number of cases. The scenario in North Eastern States too is not very encouraging
though in absolute numbers seems less. The situation however has improved in
northern and western states where the cases have dropped down dramatically. The
states in the South apart from Kerala seem to be under control though the
numbers are still high for comfort. In this backdrop, the states and union
territories are opening up their economies and societies. While there are
restrictions, the economy seems to be moving back to the days of pre-second
wave. The business is likely to pick up in the weeks coming ahead. Yet while
one seeks to recover from the second wave, the fear of a third wave seems to
linger on. There is a feeling that this might impact children more and thus a
need to prepare for them.
Secondly, there is also issue of
vaccinations. The pace of vaccinations has improved over the last couple of
weeks but given the population, it still seems slow. The rate limiting step to
vaccination seem to be availability of vaccines which in the context of India
still are only two. The other vaccines are just making their way into the
society. Yet, while there are fears about the third wave linger on, people seem
to make the best out of the gap the virus seems to have provided for the
moment. They want to make the best of the breather before they are locked in to
their homes for the lockdown version 3.0. This has led the people to go for
vacations something akin to the revenge tourism. People seem to be flocking
tourist destinations like Himachal Pradesh where there is no requirement for a
negative RT-PCR test. For instance in Goa, given the requirements of a negative
RT-PCR test, people seem to be giving Goa a miss but approaching those
destinations where requirements are easy. This brings to the fore many
questions on the safety and long term implications relatively speaking of the
people.
The tourists seem to be giving the
social distancing for a toss. This is something visible even in the markets in
the city but this is something happening at a different strange place. Social distancing
might be given a miss given the sheer size of the population but the tourists
seem to have given up the masks. The videos coming out from various hill
stations indicate the missing of masks. This is something that is difficult to
forget. It must be remembered that the country has not come out of the
pandemic. The population that is vaccinated is still relatively low given the
demographic size. The countries that were believed to be success stories are
facing struggles in coping with the new waves of the Chinese virus. For instance,
Israel and Britain both have recorded in excess of fifty percent of the
vaccinations are facing the third or the fourth wave. The only encouraging sign
is the hospitalizations are relatively low and deaths continue to be very low. However,
this does not mean the virus has not disappeared. In the context of India,
given the sheer population, the increase in cases too would be very high in
terms of absolute numbers. While the experts are of the opinion that the third
wave is unlikely to be dangerous and likely to be less intense compared to the
first wave leave aside the second wave, there does not seem to be room for
complacency.
This is something that has to be
stressed. The vacation spots are open and it would be good for the local
economy. The local economy in tourist places are suffering and therefore there
needs to be opening of opportunities for the distressed section. Yet there are
trade-offs. The trade-offs are something that are too costly to be resolved. It
is not about one individual but the multiplier effect. The virus has a
multiplier effect unlike non-communicable diseases which are not
multiplicative. For instance, the probability of someone dying in accident does
not increase just because somebody close to him or her has died in an accident.
Yet to everyone contracting the virus, there is an increased probability
perhaps exponentially of the others contracting the virus. This multiplier
effect is what would make the tourism or other service industries vulnerable to
the waves of the pandemics or even the recess between the pandemics if one
might term it so.
The authorities have to plan for the
social distancing and the mask norms for the tourists or for that matter the
shoppers in the malls and the markets. It is alright to open up the economies
but there cannot be a compromise on the masks. The different tourist spots have
to insist on the visitors wearing masks at the least. The supervision must be
strengthened. It might go against the fundamental rights and the informed
consent but in case of possible externalities, there must be insistence of
meeting the collective interest rather than subservience to individual
interest. It is the dichotomy between the individual self-interest and
collective interest which results in the rapid spread of the virus compelling
the lock-downs. The individual self-interest takes precedence when the
aftereffects are not multiplicative and are independent. The collective interest’s
gains precedence when the aftereffects are multiplicative. The pictures and the
reports coming from various tourist spots and markets are reflective of
individual self-interest overriding collective welfare given the weakness of
the enforceability of the same.
There might or might not be a third
wave. The fears might be exaggerated. Yet the way the second wave caught India
napping cannot be allowed to be repeated. History repeats first as a tragedy
and then as a farce. It would be politically devastating for the ruling parties
if the third wave were to emerge in full intensity. In the case of Spanish flu,
the second wave was the strongest followed by relatively weaker subsequent
waves. The same might be observed in the case of the Chinese pandemic as well. Yet
given the artificial nature of the virus as suggested by numerous studies, it
cannot be taken for granted. There must exist a suitable mechanism to prevent
the possible intensity of the wave. It begins with the simple mask. The people
at the heart are responsible rather than the state. The people must begin to
view it seriously and not lose guard.
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