Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Random Musings on Economics

 

Economics deals with behavior of agents as stated many a times in the past posts. The agents might be individuals, groups of individuals, organizations, families, society, castes, classes, institutions, nations, economies and what not. There might be a behavior observed under individual conditions and something under aggregate conditions. There is behavior which might be innocuous or something independent when viewed through the prism of an individual yet the same when aggregated might result in a totally different behavior. The motives might be micro yet the aggregate behavior might result in something of a macro outcome. It might be simple decision to park a car at some place which if followed by others might set a pattern and thus a macro behavior of sort would emerge. If somebody were to venture a question on why the king has no clothes, there might be no answers. As the economists, Thomas Schelling once remarked, he was addressing a session and he found the first eight rows were empty but to borrow from the Indian English, it was houseful beyond the eighth row. He spends some considerable time trying to wonder how such an outcome could have resulted in a perfectly natural setting wherein each one is supposed to exhibit independent behavior.

 

Different schools of thought have of course stressed on different dynamics as far as economics is concerned. It is the economic naturalist school like of Schelling or Becker or Frank and others who tried to view the society through a prism of human actions and reactions and the consequent outcomes of those reactions in the society. It was these economists who built up the foundation for the application of economics in the real world. In their view, every action is perhaps an outcome of a cost benefit analysis. The cost benefit analysis, it must be stressed, need not be structured but often subject to heuristics and the cognitive constraints that the human exhibits. The behavioral school built upon these constraints into arguing about the bounded rationality. To these economists, the human society was essentially an outcome of human individual actions and these would reflect on the production, exchange and consumption. The economic naturalists too argue that the production exchange and consumption too are an outcome of micro actions the individual agents undertake which when aggregated would result in a very different outcome.

 

It is not merely the production that would be stressed but the naturalists would look at why this production is chosen at. In fact, it would be inquisitive to decode whether the product design is an outcome of economic actions. If a milk were to be deliver in square carton, the same is not something observed in case of soft drinks and related beverages which come in round bottles. This might be of interest from scientific perspective but economist have tried to dig the economic motivations behind the logic. Incidentally, the logic gets extended to packaging of different goods, perishables and non-perishables alike. This was something untouched upon in the previous schools of thought. The behavioralists of course argue that these outcomes can be suited to make the humans change behavior. For instance, the current need to wear masks could be altered by suitable nudge if one might term it so. Of course neo-classicalists would argue that the people respond to incentives and therefore with appropriate incentives people would adopt masks as default accessory. Incidentally, there are suggestions that vaccination be made compulsory to enter pubs or discs or malls or other entertainment venues. This in itself would be enough to make people rush for vaccination across the country and perhaps across the globe.

 

In the classical economics, the focus was on production. It was the supply that mattered. The production was an outcome of the self-interest of the agent which through the invisible hand ensured the societal self-interest was served. Karl Marx was more interested in the ownership of production when he argued that the production should be in the hands of the labour rather than the capital. In his view, the labour was exploited and thus the labour would revolt against the capital. The communist model was essentially the collective ownership in theory but it ended up as a producer and consumer lock-in in practice. Once the farmers for instance were allocated to a cooperative, it was deemed to be permanently there and their own private desire or choices became subordinate to the choices of the collective. The individual lost to the collective.

 

It was the neo-classical school which moved away from the production into the demand side. In their analysis, it was the consumers who purchased goods and services to maximize their utility given the constraints. To them, it was the demand side analysis that was pertinent. They emphasized the role of exchange and consumption, something also followed by the Austrian school. The Schumpeterians interestingly focused on production but in their worldview it was about the cycle that predicated the future of production trajectories. They argued that every production cycle at one point would be subject to the creative destruction wherein the existing assets would be restructured and used for more productive purposes. In this they followed the prophecies of Marxists though they did not suggest or approve of the Marxian model of production. In other words, the expected direction might be similar but the outcome of the revolution would be different. This is precisely why Schumpeter came to be loved both by capitalists and Marxists.

 

Yet in each of their views, these analysis were more predicated either on the goods in supply and the motivations and ownership behind the same or alternatively the analysis of demand patterns and the motivations and the constraints behind the same. They did not delve on the underlying logic of agent behavior under different circumstances. The behavioral school focused on the process of decision making something an erstwhile forte of psychology. The naturalists sought to decode the behavior in terms of the information available and the trajectory these actions would lead to in others following suit or otherwise. When one looks at the sweep of economics, it is clear that every school seeks to analyze a certain part and base its arguments over the same.

 

 

 

 

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