The second wave of the Chinese virus
seem to be abating. India has recorded a daily positivity rate of under five
percent over the last two weeks. The World Health Organization (WHO) points to
this rate as the minimum eligibility for the economy to be unlocked. The unlocking
process has begun in varying degrees. In the lockdown of 2020, the posts had
repeatedly suggested of adopting a calibrated unlocking district by district
based on the positivity rate. The idea had generally found low receptivity. There
were arguments that the economy cannot function in an isolated environment and
it had to be either opened fully or locked fully. Yet those same people who
were so vociferously opposing it last year are now in the forefront of welcoming
especially the strategy being adopted in Uttar Pradesh. Conceding the Rusi
Karanjia theory of consistency being the virtue of donkeys, it might be seen as
vindication of those critics of district wise unlocking are now slowly moving
away from being donkeys metaphorically speaking.
A number of districts still continue
to have a positivity rate in excess of five percent especially when measured
through the seven day moving average method. This implies that the pandemic is
still active. There are figures which do indicate a spike in active cases in
states like Maharashtra or Kerala on some of the days. Some other states like
Karnataka or Assam have plateaued in terms of daily cases dropping down or in
terms of positivity rate. There is a day or two every week where positivity
rate does increase in states like Karnataka. The obvious implication is there
are no grounds for complacency to set in something that happened last time. In fact,
a good number of cases were essentially driven by the complacency that set in
and made people shed masks and social distancing. In a heavily populated
country like India, it is difficult to maintain social distancing throughout
and hence it must be emphasized more on masking. There are grounds to suggest
double masking as one way to counter the effects of lack of social distancing
in workplaces, markets or public transport.
On the vaccine front, India has
finally picked up the pace. On June 21, India recorded the vaccinations in
excess of eighty lakhs. This was the highest single day vaccination across the
world if one were to ignore China or at least take the Chinese with some pinch
of salt. Yet, as has been mentioned before too, the vaccine policy is akin to
maintaining a very high run rate over long period of time. To reiterate, it is
easier to score at ten an over in T20 but almost impossible to do the same even
for single day in test cricket. The challenge before India is to score at T20
rates in a test match that might not just end in five days but might extended
to even twenty days. It is about the vaccines keeping pace with the virus and
its mutants. In this context, there is no doubt, that the vaccination of eighty
lakh people on a single day is commendable. There has been a coordinated effort
across all agencies. They deserve accolades but the journey is just beginning.
The question that arises would be
the obvious course of the government action in the coming months. The prescription
would remain the same as it was earlier. There has to be sustained momentum in
carrying out the vaccinations. Moreover, it has to be ensuring the vaccine
hesitancy is overcome. Those who are desirous of getting vaccinated are already
vaccinated or in the queue are likely to be vaccinated in the next month or so.
The numbers are likely to be in the range of around fifty crores. But this
would be less than half of India’s population. If one looks at eligible
population it would be around two thirds. The importance would be to drive the
vaccine programme into the remote areas and bring into the vaccination fold
those under eighteen years of age. Trials must be expedited on this.
Secondly, there has to be no change
on increasing the vaccine availability. India still is betting on the two
vaccines it has in its possession currently. The other vaccines are in the
pipeline and there would be no doubt uncertainty on them. There was a sort of
marked rush in securing vaccines from abroad at the height of the second wave
but not the urgency does not seem to exist. It would be mistake to ignore the
possibility of the third wave. The vaccination must sustain at a very high pace
and therefore there needs to be expanded the basket of vaccines. The government
cannot be complacent of securing those supplies and the supply chain. Betting
on future vaccines might sound lucrative but would be the same a bird in a bush.
While there is no doubt, a quantum of geopolitics is involved, yet the market
is skewed in favor of the vaccine manufacturers at this moment. Therefore the government
has to get them on board and create conditions where vaccines are available on
demand. India’s problem is its high population in this context. Therefore, the
amount of vaccines needed and the basket of vaccines needed is both high. The government
seems to be again making a mistake of feeling that vaccinating some percentage
of population would make the virus go away. As evidence is demonstrating, the
virus is likely to persist strongly till at least eighty percent are
vaccinated. There is some ray of hope emerging from Britain where hospitalizations
have not increased while deaths have remained low in the wake of the new spread
of delta variant. Israel would have to be observed over the next few weeks for
the same.
The steps should be clear in seeking
to procure vaccines from all possible sources. As mentioned in the previous
posts, the government must offer incentives sufficient enough for the vaccine
majors to shift production base to India. Rather than focus on PLIs on numerous
industries, it would have been better to focus the same on vaccines. The mission
to make vaccines in India irrespective of the company should have begun well
early last year when the pandemic was in infantile stages. It is still delayed
but enough potential exists if India has to make its mark in ‘Vaccine Maitri’
once again.
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