India seems to have seen the worst
off the second wave of the Chinese pandemic. In cities like Delhi, the pandemic
seems to have abated with the same pace in which it materialized in April. It is
perhaps a mystery on the behavior of the pandemic in terms of its spread and consequent
contraction in an equally swift time. While the country is recovering slowly
from the pandemic, the vaccination program seems to be picking some pace. The recovery
from the pandemic might be slow given the convexities involved, the pact of
vaccination would determine the pace of recovery. If the vaccination pace is
high, the chances of breakthrough infections and consequent mutations might decrease.
In fact, it is in the global self-interest that the vaccination be carried out
at a very fast pace. The global vaccination programs are still subject to the
geopolitics and protectionism, despite the US announcing lifting of barriers in
terms of supply of vaccine raw materials as also with export of excess vaccines
available in the US. There are few cures that are emerging on the horizon but
they are yet to gather pace to make a difference in terms of recovery time and
sharp declines in mortality rates across the world.
If the vaccine pace is slow, there
is a good chance of the virus mutating and able to break through the vaccine
process. The vaccines need constant and continued reworking and upgradation but
these would become problematic during the pandemic. In fact, the uniqueness of
the current vaccination programme across the world is the fact, the vaccination
is happening at the height of the pandemic. With large population unvaccinated,
there is a good chance of spread being high and thus the breakthrough infections.
While India might have got a breather for now, there is no time for
complacency. India in fact should learn the hard lessons and be on preparation
at highest possible alert for the next wave. The virus normally lie dormant for
some period before materializing in full fury. The Spanish flu seems to have occurred
in four waves at least globally with the second being the worst. India’s
population experienced a decline over a ten year period of 1911-21
significantly because of the casualties due to the Spanish flu. If the pattern
were to be repeated, the current pandemic induced by the virus from Wuhan seem
to have to hit the peak and the subsequent waves might not materialize with the
same fury. India might get the better of them yet this would mean committing
the same mistakes what one did after the first wave.
The current strategy for India would
have to be a mass vaccination at a very high scale to achieve a sort of herd
immunity before the emergence of the third wave. In parallel, there must be
significant preparation in terms of health infrastructure and thus reduce
mortality in the subsequent emerging waves. Yet at this moment, India still
seems to be progressing at a relatively slow pace. The pace of vaccine has
picked up but the journey is too long. India has vaccinated close to 25 crore
doses but these account for a very narrow fraction of the Indian population
with the estimated requirements being in excess of 250 crore doses. The current
number is impressive no doubt but the sheer population makes India become a
laggard. Given the precarious condition of India’s health infrastructure, it
would be advisable to keep this vaccination pace fast.
The current pace is around 30 odd
lakhs per day which is expected to hit half a million per day in the next few
weeks. The government has apparently promised every eligible Indian would be
vaccinated before the end of this year. There was table of vaccines available
including the number of doses expected before the end of this year. But many of
the vaccines were still under trial and hence the table seemed to project a
best case scenario rather than something realistic. If the government wants to
follow up on its promise in all seriousness it needs to literally scale up the
program by a multiple of quite few times as the existing number. At one crore
doses per day, as mentioned in the previous posts, it might eight months or so
the vaccinate the entire population. Looked in this context, the government
projections seem very optimistic and perhaps lack a touch of reality.
The government as has been suggested
before must prepare a realistic plan of vaccination. There is no point in overstating
the intentions but underperforming in terms of outcomes. There is no room for
underperformance given the heavy costs likely to be entailed in the prospective
third wave. The government must go all out in ensuring the vaccination pace
gathers steam to hit a crore vaccinations per day within a short period of
time. Furthermore, the task is to sustain the same. The vaccination pace had gathered
pace in early to mid-April before the second wave and consequent reframing
of the vaccination criteria put brakes
and rather sharp ones at that on the vaccination. The External Affairs Minister
did visit the US to iron out the inefficiencies in the vaccine supply chain. But
that is just one part of the problem. The problem is more in the supply side
domestically with the capacity being constrained significantly. Even if raw
materials are available, the infrastructure constraints come into the picture. The
ground work to get the facilities ready is very slow. For a country with
superpower aspirations, these are significant pointers on the limitations of
such aspirations. It is one thing to aspire yet another to have a look at the
ground reality. This ground reality has to be countered. Irrespective of the
vaccine, it needs to be produced in large numbers. These need vaccine
manufacturing units. There are numerous units, many of which are lying idle. They
should have been geared up months ago but everyone sat on the same till they
were faced with the second wave fury. There is no time to lose at this moment. It
is alright to pat on the back on these numbers which in absolute terms look impressive.
They will just pale into reality if the increase in relative terms remain slow
and India has the misfortune of facing the third wave with the economy already
in significant trouble thanks to the lockdowns. India cannot afford a third
wave neither can afford a third lockdown.
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