Now that there is some certainty in
the vaccine policy announced by the government of India, it remains to be seen
how the process would be carried out going forward. The government has set
itself an ambitious target of vaccinating every eligible adult in India by the
end of this year. The target seems quite unrealistic especially going by the
current pace of the process. The pace was picking up in April before the government
decided to engage in some competitive politicking which led to the chaos and unavailability
of the vaccines. Moreover, the hesitancy on the part of the government to order
vaccines beforehand too played a role in vaccine shortages. The government had
clearly found itself on a wrong foot when the second wave stuck. The demand for
vaccines multiplied manifold but there were no vaccines. There was perhaps no
homework on the part of the government to cater to such eventuality. There still
exists a denial over the prospective third wave. Any derailment of vaccine process
might be the undoing of the current dispensation. At the beginning of the
second wave, the insensitive and crass statements by key shakers and movers in
the government decision making establishment reflected the government thinking
and added its bit in the image battering which the government took.
At this stage, the country is
approaching nearly 25 crore vaccine mark. Given two doses per person, it would
take more than 2.5 billion doses to vaccinate the entire population. The trials
on children are on and in all probability they too would be vaccinated in the
coming months. It is important for children to be vaccinated fast so that their
school education resumes at the earliest and normalcy restored. This is perhaps
more important in the short run than a prospective children’s wave expected
sometime soon. The third wave affecting children might or might materialize but
as suggested in the previous posts too, it is important not to be complacent
something like on the eve of the second wave but take full precautions and
ensure the children remain protected. There is of course a question on how to
proceed with the vaccination process. Estimates suggests the enthusiasm to wane
in a month or so once the wave subsides. The momentum might carry forward to
around half a billion doses or so but beyond the same the push would have to be
extra strong. The government has an option of making mandatory yet given the
supply demand mismatches, the mandate might not work in the expected ways. There
could be logistical nightmares in ensuring everyone vaccinated at the earliest.
However, there is a need to protect as many Indians as possible before a
possible strike by a third wave or maybe subsequent waves. Therefore, there is
some policy trade-offs that will have to be executed in making people get
vaccinated at the earliest and in large numbers. The mandatory nature might be
challenged in the legal forum and potentially get itself into knots in the
judicial fora.
While the judiciary is unlikely to
stay any such mandatory orders, but the government might prefer to use the
moral suasion or its persuasive powers to increase the vaccination program. There
have been past posts on how certain things being made mandatory would be a
better way to achieve societal welfare. Masks were one such instance. Another
such instance would be the vaccines. There is a personal interest in each of
the economic agents. The personal choices might tend towards not having a
vaccine. There might be many reasons including fear but the choices have to be
respected in the societal scheme of things. Yet each person unvaccinated would
carry a greater risk of infection and in turn be a source of heightened of
infecting others. Every person vaccinated would lower the risk of both getting
infected and in turn infecting others. Therefore, it is evident that societal
interest is favored towards achieving greater vaccination. Thereby, there
seemingly would exist a conflict between those not keen on getting vaccinated,
their personal choice and the benefits of vaccination which spill over to the
society. In a society, if large numbers are vaccinated, the emergent herd
immunity would protect those unvaccinated too. There would be an element of
free riding which would be exploited by few. Yet there is no algorithm to
determine who benefits without getting infected. In this context, there would
uncertainty about the prospective free riders too. Therefore, it is without
doubt that vaccination would have to be made mandatory or at least use moral
suasion to increase the pace of vaccination.
Within this, there does exist a
market based solution if one might term it so. Each agent has an incentive to
earn their daily bread. If there were to be compulsory vaccination for them to
engage in their earning daily bread, they would execute the tradeoff in terms
of getting vaccinated. In other words, it is the employers who determine
whether their employees would be required to get vaccinated or otherwise. As more
and more firms will demand employees to get vaccinated, there would be clamor
for vaccination. In essence it is about responding to incentives. The firms
have an incentive to restart production for their economic benefits. In fact,
economy has to be restarted and work with minimum hassles something possible if
large scale vaccinations happen. Similarly, for local entrepreneurs like
grocers, vegetable sellers, it is essential to get themselves vaccinated to run
their business. The same holds good for delivery persons, cab and auto drivers,
those working in infrastructure and other utility services, private persons
engaged in utility maintenance to get themselves vaccinated to keep their
offerings running. For colleges and schools, having their students and staff
vaccinated would make sense. As mentioned above, the education system is
something that needs to be salvaged and vaccine is the best way to do it. For those
engaged in travel, vaccination could help them avoid repeated testing. Therefore,
it would be in the self-interest of many a stakeholders to get themselves vaccinated
or having their staff vaccinated. This is what would have to drive vaccination
process, something repeated in the past too. The thing that is ailing is the
constraints in supply. If these constraints are eased going forward, India
might be able to increase the vaccination process thus a step towards winning
this pandemic battle.
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