Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Global Interventions: Hard and Soft

 

Indian foreign policy and by extension strategic studies have obsessed on defensive multilateral global engagement and an emphasis on peace rather than national interests as a primary objective. It is undeniable that when it came to the crux, India intervened decisively in East Pakistan in 1971 leading to formation of Bangladesh. India has intervened in Sri Lanka more than once with mixed effects as it did in Maldives. Indian intelligence has been actively involved in foiling attempts to overthrow governments in the Vanilla Islands like Mauritius and Seychelles. Yet India has been hesitant of interventions as tool of foreign policy in contrast to the Western world. India has remained passive to calls for intervention;. Few years ago when President Nasheed was dispossessed in Maldives, India remained silent than intervening on his behalf. At some point, there is a feeling that India’s moral standing might take a beating if India is seen to enhance and demonstrate military credentials. Perhaps for this reason, India was reluctant to intervene in Pakistan whenever there were cross border terrorist attacks. As India seeks to reframe the power structure in the global milieu, it needs to revisit these paradigms.

 

India has contributed to the global scene in multiple ways. One of which that can be illustrated would be the current vaccine diplomacy. The ‘Vaccine-Maitri’ is certainly an intervention, though a different kind. As the world battles the pandemic induced by the Chinese originated virus, India has been in the forefront to distribute vaccines across the world. Indian vaccines have reached farthest corners of the Caribbean to the remote outposts of Africa and all set to hit islands of Pacific. This is no doubt an exercise of soft power. As Indian vaccines reach different shores, there would be a goodwill built up which India can encash in the times to come. China over the year has been attempting to use its economic muscle to spread its tentacles across the world. While China has been keen to use the economic hard power, India is more seemingly content with the softer dimensions. Indian intervention in stability of global health security seems to be driven by a future expectation of reciprocal altruism rather than an immediate return. It might be more of a manifestation of Chris Anderson called Freemium model in an unrelated context, just that the Indian model is a manifestation of Freemium in global politics.

 

Each country has been sensitive to interventions from external players in its domestic politics. India has been sensitive to Western lectures on affairs in Kashmir for instance. India has long been victim of Pakistani attempts to change status quo in Kashmir or Chinese attempts to foster insurgency in the North-East. America’s Monroe Doctrine was essentially an element of non-intervention by European players in the American continent. It was generally believed that the European powers intervened in the affairs of the global South. This coupled with experiences of centuries of colonial rule made the newly independent countries deeply suspicious of the Western powers. This too perhaps was the reason why these countries looked towards Soviet Union as perhaps their natural ally. Soviet Union too was possessive of its Eurasian preserve seeking to protect from external interventions. It was the pursuit of the warm weather port that made Soviet Union look towards including Iran into its sphere of its orbit something that unnerved Britain, thus the beginning of the Great Game. Through the Great Game and later the twentieth century wars were about interventionisms and seeking to protect their own turf. The turf battles were fought not just directly but through proxy.

 

India was quick in criticizing the West for its interventions whether in Suez crisis of 1956 or Vietnam in 1966. Yet it was guarded in its reaction to the Soviet invasion of Hungary or Czechoslovakia or much later in Afghanistan. While in private India did express concerns about the Soviet interventions, the public diplomacy was centered on quid pro quo of Soviet using its veto to prevent anti-India resolutions in the UN Security Council. India’s  approach was essentially to seek UN interventions in the global power struggles. Despite the hard realities of the power battle, India somehow kept faith in the UN and its peacekeeping operations. India has been the single largest contributor in terms of men and armed resources for UN peacekeeping operations. It might have to do with India’s aspirations for UN Security Council permanent membership but so far the efforts have proved little. China is known to participate in the UN peacekeeping operations ostensibly to gain operational experience for its PLA outside its boundaries. While it might be similar motives for India, the evidence of course is scanty. It is the Indian belief that UN is a forum to solve global problems and blue helmets are key instruments in the same that has driven the Indian logic rather than operational exposure.

 

As India seeks to expand the role in the global power calculus, India needs to rethink its role in global interventions. There might be hard or soft but interventions would not disappear. India has intervened in the past on many an occasion. The pre-independent India was essentially a dominion that protected the British interests in the Indo-Pacific. It was the omphalos of the empire. Whether it was in Afghanistan or China or Tibet or Burma, Indian forces were key to the British objectives. India needs to revisit the paradigm of non-intervention. It has even in the independent India and there is no need why it cannot do so. If it has to step up its role, it needs to reclaim its position as net security provider in the Indo-Pacific region. It was in the orbit of Indian power from Suez to Fiji. As China scales its ambitions, India would have to match for its own self-interest. India cannot have the hesitations of the past that prevented it from exercising power. India was sought and drawn into a moral trap where it has remained entrapped barring few exceptions. The experiences in Sri Lanka for instance have reinforced the hesitations. There is a need to change the thinking and strategic thinking should be it at building the Indo-Pacific zone beyond the South Asian calculus as it sphere of influence.

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