Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Technology Forecasts for Post Wuhan Virus World


COVID-19, the pandemic caused by a virus originating from Wuhan, China seems no sign of peaking out. Yet, as in any battle, human mankind will emerge triumphant. However, to expect life to be same post pandemic might not be a valid proposition. Indubitably, life will return to normal and with passage of time, the aftereffects are forgotten. Hardly anybody remembers the after effects of Spanish flu though in terms of destruction it was far more severe. As with any disruption, there are bound to be changes that bring about their own unique idiosyncrasies. Similarly, the changes brought about by the current round would be long lasting. The post “Tech Forecasts and the Post China Virus World” captured some of the possible changes thanks to technology in the post pandemic world.  In continuation with the above post, it would be pertinent to decode some more features that might characterize the post pandemic universe.

Sanitization Tunnels

The economy cannot come to a standstill. The business has to function. Yet aside of social distancing, there seems to be no other panacea to the Wuhan virus induced epidemic. Humans are social animals by nature and thus any disruption is bound to have psychological effects. The trade-off has to be resolved. The outcome is the emergence of sanitization tunnels. They are just emerging in hospitals and few market places. They will soon spring up at almost all places. It is only matter of time the tunnel becoming granular. A few instances would highlight the same. Given the disruption, it is unlikely there would be no redundancy or precautionary measures built up to prevent another round of disruption. Metro services in most urban areas carry large number of passengers with zero possibility of social distancing unless one is prepared to have a law and order at hand. The solution would be setting up a sanitizing tunnel at the entrance of metro stations where commuters could get sanitized. It might be expanded to railway stations, malls, bus stands, airports, manufacturing industries, IT hubs and offices and perhaps even to large apartment buildings. There are reports of its ineffectiveness at the moment but the learning curve will come into play soon and will become a mass product long after the pandemic has disappeared. It might come with its own externalities but time perhaps will resolve them.

Drones

Drones were subject to precautionary principle in practice. However, the pace of innovation has far outpaced the law regulating the same. Drones are highly underutilized. But with the necessities posed by the pandemic, drones are increasingly being used. In terms of mass sanitization, drones are now being used. Drones will be used in public places to undertake temperature screening etc. Further drone based deliveries long visualized by Amazon might become a reality. As people remain in the houses during lockdown, drones might be used to undertake deliveries from local delivery hubs to the final destination. Drones might be become critical in delivering medical supplies to remote locations. Already, Rwanda was experimenting delivery of blood to remote places via drones. Drones are already being used in places like Hong Kong for monitoring law and order but the usage of the same might go up significantly.

Surveillance technologies

There has long been a battle between advocates of privacy and those who surveillance to maintain public order. The genie has escaped from the bottle. The relative success of Singapore, South Korea etc. have been attributed to the extensive usage of surveillance tools to track contacts of positive patients and consequently the movements of positive patients and their contacts. The electronic fencing might be in the initial stages but would develop significantly with the insertion of new technological tools. Long after the pandemic abates, the national security would be the biggest reason for its preponderance. To the intelligence community, these tools now available on many smart phones would be starting point to track the movements of suspects engaged against national order. To the medical community, it might be good tool to track patients and their progress. It would be good tool to warn people of any dangers. In fact, people engaged in unruly activities or sabotage might be geo-fenced electronically. People might be warned of their presence in nearby areas. There might be unintended consequences but surveillance would be different ball game post pandemic. Privacy as we know it might die and very different approach to privacy might emerge in ways we do not even imagine at the moment.

Granular medical instrumentation

As time passes, many of the medical instruments being used will turn granular. The blood test for sugar levels is already disrupted thanks to glucometer. It might only be matter of time that there would be virometers or bacetriometers that would test the presence of bacteria or virus in the human body. Genetic mapping can be carried out using at-home kits. Such kits might now expand in the horizon. There would antibody meters testing the antibody presence in the body. These test might be blood tests or tests of saliva or maybe even throat or nasal swabs. There might be even tests of ‘x-raying’ skin to find any changes in blood underneath thus building non-invasive tools of testing. Thermometers in contactless form might witness rapid adoption. In fact linked with smartphones, these medical instruments might keep on getting updated to facilitate them tracking more virus, bacteria or other microbial organisms. The face of primary diagnostics and healthcare would be changed radically. The system of diagnostics would be more for confirmatory or deeper analysis rather than a primary tool.

The above forecasts like in the previous posts are observations based on the current ecosystem and the necessities. There is a forecaster’s hazard, something that one ends up forecasting but ending up with the egg on the face. At times, the forecasts are perhaps too early for their times and might eventually make an appearance long after the forecaster has even forgotten about the same. Notwithstanding the risk of forecasts going wrong, it might be useful reiterating association of a greater risk of forecasts to have underestimated the gravity and quantum of change about to be unleashed.



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