Thanks to the
virus originating from Wuhan, China and the destruction it has spawned as it
traverses across the world, seemingly the whole world is shut down. The
economic activity is down to a standstill with experts talking about a long
recession ahead globally. There are a few however who believe the world is
headed towards a V shaped recovery- a sharp dip in growth rates followed by
equally sharp recovery. As the economies shut down, a lot of discussion is
happening over the duration of the lockdown. With no vaccine or cure in sight,
options seem to be very limited with either a priority on health implying a
long lockdown or a priority on economy which carries the burden of swifter
spread of the infection. The debate between advocates of economy first and
advocates of health first has been captured in this
post.
Aside of the debate is a serious question of the socio-eco-political
consequences that arise of the decision in extending or exiting the lockdown.
In India,
political theorists are debating the possibility of the political price, the
Modi government might have to pay if it extends the lockdown. There is strong
section within the opposition calling for extension of lockdown. Implied in
assertions of few right wing thinkers is a conspiracy theory by opposition
ruled states to shift the blame for extended lockdown and its consequences on
Modi government and thus recapture space. This is despite the vociferous of the
arguments in favour of extension have from opposition ruled states. The
political price to be paid is based on few factors.
There is strong
reasoning that migrants are extremely angry being caught in a ‘Trishanku’
position, neither here nor there. The lockdown was announced all of sudden, the
migrants were in severe danger of losing their livelihood thus they began
marching long journeys back home. The crisis took a turn for the ugly in Delhi
largely due to the machinations of the local government who wanted to put the
government of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in a spot given the elections in near
future in those states. Some deft handling at both Centre and many of the
States have somewhat alleviated the distress but the feeling in the large body
of chatterati in Delhi and elsewhere is these migrants now in refugee camps are
angry. If the lockdown is extended, with a long period of unemployment and
having to live on charity, this could blow into a serious political crisis. It
has been ignored to large extent deliberately that had the migrants been
allowed to leave, the crisis might have been severe with the virus from Wuhan
possibly spreading to the countryside. A discussion on the egress and the
difficulties associated is captured in this
post.
The extended
lockdown is bound to have an impact on jobs and livelihoods creating a serious
crisis both in the countryside and the urban areas. The poor, the low income
groups, the daily wagers are the most affected. It is not very easy to sustain
the livelihoods without work for long time. These situations once they
aggravate might become difficult to recapture the space.
Yet, contrary to
the assertions of the chatterati on both left and right spectrum of thought, it
is unlikely that there will be repercussions. Two instances capture this
contradiction. Modi’s call for sounds to cheer up the front-line health and
security personnel during Janata Curfew on March 22 and his call for lighting
diyas on April 5, to demonstrate of unity received huge response perhaps far
higher than anticipated. There is a sense of despair yet people realise that
there is very little option in the current context. One is dealing with an
uncontrollable external factor that seems to brook no solution at the current
stage. There will be intense experience at the moment but there is a hope that
things will turnaround at some stage. In the age of social media, communication
flows fast and rather than vertical flow, results in horizontal flow of
information.
When the battle
is over, people tend to recall experiences not in a sequential manner but only
select bits of the same. They in all probability recall the tough times they
underwent during the crisis. They would recall the dark days that seemed to
flow endlessly as they stood helpless before the Chinese epidemic. Yet at the
end of the day, the feeling would more perhaps transform into a sense of
victory. As Daniel Kahneman points out, people’s recollection of memories tend
to revolve around two points. The first is the peak experience. This is the
experience at the height of the lockdown or the crisis. This would be the time
when one would run out of supplies, when one is struck in an unknown land, one
when thinks there is no hope ahead. The end experience is the one which happens
when the crisis ends. There would be sense of victory and perhaps in the months
and years ahead there would be a discussion on the emotional bonding that got
generated despite social distancing. They would fondly recollect how they won
the battle in toughest of the times and faintest of the hopes. In fact, if
India comes through with minimum of damage unlike Europe or US,, there would be
sense of satisfaction. There would be air of romanticism over the struggles.
The peak end experience theory might bring the manifestation of the societal
resilience. Future generations would be told stories about the resilience the
current generation manifested as it waged a battle in the dark alley against an
invisible virus from China.
There can be
endless debate over the feasibility of extending the lockdown or otherwise,
there might be endless talk over the political ramifications of either of the
strategies, serious discussion could revolve on the economic destruction.
However, what remains in the end is the recollection of the peak and end
experiences of this exercise. The people’s preferences social, economic and
political would rest on the internalization of these experiences going forward.
The current analysis is incomplete without factoring the peak end experience
analysis of the population across the country and the world.
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