Three major urban trends are being observed was we head
into the third decade of the present century. Antagonistic to most estimates,
population growth rates slowed down for many cities in developing countries.
The largest cities in the emerging countries experienced a slower rate of
growth since 1980s relative to previous two decades. The world is now less
dominated by very large cities than predicted earlier. Less than five per cent
of the world's population lived in megacities in 1990. The prediction that
cities such as Calcutta and Mexico City would evolve into gigantic metropolises
of 30 to 40 million inhabitants, is unlikely to fructify.
Linkages between urban change and economic, social,
political and cultural change remain somewhat ambiguous. Some large and rapidly
growing cities have been well-managed and serviced perhaps contrary to
assertion that size exhibits diminishing returns with respect to city
management. In fact, some of the worst physical conditions have beset small
towns.
Several predispositions are likely to shape the urban
future going forward. Indubitably, the progressive urbanization of the globe is
certain despite visible signs of retreat. Assessments suggest more than half of
the world’s population will live in urban settlements within the first two
decades of the twenty-first century. It is inevitable to detect close
interactions between urbanization and globalization. Globalization rather a
product is more of a process. It evolves through theoretical integration of countries,
cities and people through accumulative flows of goods, services, capital,
technology and ideas. Despite certain retreat of globalization to the forces of
nationalism, cities have come to the fore because they perform special
functions in the new global economy. In all likelihood, the continuing devolution
of powers and responsibilities to local authorities and civil society will gain
momentum. This process was logical resolution to inadequacies of customary
modes of urban governance in handling the emergent urban problems.
In a globalizing world, countries and cities are
increasingly linked in interdependent and interlocking relationships. Cities
command dominant position in global order underscored by failure of national
boundaries to stop cross-border flows of capital, people and ideas.
Accompanying the same, somewhat paradoxically, sub-regional
economic entities have emerged. Called growth triangles, some neighboring
territories involving several countries have sought creative economic
co-operative development. Spatial manifestations of rapid economic development
in the global economy are the urban corridors emerging in many parts of the
world, developed and developing alike.
Globalization impacts different cities in different ways.
To many, globalization created new opportunities and wealth, yet there are many
cities who find themselves at the margins. The marginalized city is more perceptible
in African continent than other topographies. It is external to the cyberspace,
lacks the essential information set-up and is usually unable to plug into the
global economy.
Certain features typify cities across the globe. First, urban unemployment remains high,
leading to its own set of externalities. Urban infrastructure is often
inadequately maintained even in developed countries, classic mismatch of demand
and supply. Water and sewer systems fail in Chicago
and Washington,
and electricity on the Eastern seaboard. In developing countries the problems
are often worse. Poor infrastructure causes problems in water supply, urban
sanitation and transport. The urban poor invariably suffer most. Environmental problems, especially air, water and noise
pollution have increased in intensity in many cities of the developing
world. To add, mounting social
conflicts, such as homelessness and crime, distress many cities. These are the
result partially of growing competition for jobs and partly of the increasing
migration of lesser privileged towns and villages to relatively better off
urban neighborhoods.
In the next century, the city will be the pertinent unit of
economic production, social organization and knowledge generation. Cities will
be progressively significant in determining the development of the global
economy. Technological advances and easy access to information will enable
cities to develop more effectual ways of production, capitalizing on the
cheapest sources of materials.
In an information era, cities act as generators, processors
and depositories of knowledge, thus emerging as hubs and nodes for research,
discovery and innovation. Given the production, distribution and consumption
will be knowledge centric, cities will seek to outperform each other in
manufacturing and harnessing knowledge. The knowledge industry, science parks,
technological development zones, technopolies and others will be further
developed in the cities of the future.
Cities of the future, in all probability will experience
greater freedom of choice and autonomy. Electronically networked individuals
and institutions facilitate the enjoyment of freedom of choice and autonomy.
Wired interactions complement face-to-face contacts. Urban lifestyles might
undergo significant transformations as people can work at home, shop by
computers and travel with credit cards. In all probability, there will be an
increased clamor for greater participation and democracy. Thus, more attention
and resources might be devoted to non-governmental, community-based
organizations. The outcome in all likelihood would be rapid makeover both
socially and institutionally. Intersections of inherited knowledge and wisdom
on one hand and expansion of technological resources on the other present a
rare opportunity for the cities to being the fulcrum of economic prosperity.
Yet there seem to be easy steps which makes it the more challenging to handle
the emergent scenario.
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