Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Games State and Private Actors Play Jeff Bezos and the Indian Government

Jeff Bezos visit to India was overshadowed by few related political incidences. One was ostensible refusal by both Prime Minister Modi and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal to meet him. Secondly, there was a statement on Amazon attributed to Goyal. Apparently, Goyal had hinted Amazon was not doing any favour by investing in India and instead the investment was in their own self-interest. It might be a different matter that the statement was twisted as usual by the media over-eager to hit back at the government. Yet, for all the outwardly deceptiveness of protection of small grocers,  at the heart of the kerfuffle, was the seemingly biased reporting by Bezos owned Washington Post in recent times on India. An analysis of the same can be found in the piece ‘ WaPo and White Man’s Burden’.

Government industry relations have always been one of jigsaw puzzles. To the industry, government would be the forum where they would love to shop for protecting their domestic markets from foreign entrants and secondly seeking protection to their legacy business models from the disruptive business models.  The industry often fancies itself as arbiter of regulation given the professed expertize in their domain. Implied is they anticipate government to consult them when framing policies for new business entities. Incidentally, emergence of a disruptive phenomenon makes the bureaucrats seek advice of the known experts who happen to be the existent firms, more often than likely victims of the disruption. Indubitably, the process is underpinned on an apparent conflict of interest given their characteristic concern of legacy protection and continuation.

Corporates use government apparatus in furtherance of their interests overseas. Conflicting interests between national government and overseas firms backed by their governments recurrently degenerated into coups, counter-coups, agitations, civil wars, colonialism etc. President Arbenz of Guatemala nationalised the banana plantations owned by United Fruit Company that were creating social and economic havoc. At UFC’s insistence, CIA backed a coup in1954 deposing Arbenz and installed a puppet to serve the bidding of UFC. Nationalising oil companies in Iran made Britain and CIA jointly oust PM Mossadegh in a coup and reinstate Shah. Recently, Evo Morales of Bolivia argued his ouster was a reaction to his attempts to nationalize lithium reserves that did not serve the US interests. European powers constantly intervened in African colonies to serve their economic interests so did the US in countries like Philippines, Haiti, Chile among other countries.

Washington Consensus is derided by critics of being camouflage for advancing US economic interests. The introduction of TRIPS in Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and consequent adoption were perceived to be an outcome of entrenched pharmaceutical lobby in the US seeking market access to emergent countries. Widespread perception abounds on global trade rules being recrafted to suit the economic agenda of US corporate backed by its government than genuine aspiration to reform the global trade in easing the barriers of mobility in trade, capital, technology and labour.

Huawei in seeking to monopolize 5G networks globally is, for good reason, viewed as an instrument of Chinese imperialist ambitions. The hostile reaction therefore is a societal response to the Chinese drives. China has sought to advance its objectives to set infra projects like ports in Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Djibouti, railroads in Kenya among other ways. Chinese firms more often than not, are essentially party run irrespective of what they claim to be. The party control is concealed beneath the series of veils. Huawei’s veil is slowly being pierced. To China, perhaps a learning curve of 19th century imperialism is leading it on a policy what few have described as incremental imperialism. However the Chinese debt games have a precedent albeit in a different form in Latin American countries. India seems to be very late comer in the games and its moves if any are highly tentative.

Similarly, within the country, the contestations for supremacy between corporate and government has been for many years. In the US, led by dominant industrialists and financers like Rockefeller, Morgan among others, monopolies were erected in virtually every sector including steel, oil etc. Presidential administrations often overlooked these encroachments despite presence of legislative framework like Sherman Act. However, President Theodore Roosevelt believed the state was supreme and the firms had to submit to state supremacy. In series of trust-busting actions, monopolies were unravelled.

In India, the nationalization of banks of 1969 was essentially believed to hit at the corporates whom PM Indira Gandhi believed to be working against her interests. Nationalization in the garb of eliminating concentration of wealth in the hands of few served good politics despite the long run consequences in terms of economic despair. Land reforms like Tenancy elimination etc. were essentially again targeting certain zamindari coalitions that perhaps might have been a threat to those in power.  The cat and mouse game goes on in many countries in different manifestations at different points of time. Yet it would be of interest to understand how the games play out.

Henry Farrell, presented a matrix, illustrated below that captures the state-private actor dynamics. The objective is to illustrate the formulation than debate the pros and cons of the formulation. 


Source:Henry Farrell, Governing Information Flows, State and Private Actors, - this diagram is representative illustration of the matrix


To Farrell, the crescendos revolve around two parameters, the preferences of the state and the points of control available to the state. As the globalization increases in intensity accompanied by equally strong backlash, numerous challenges emerge. The states with decreasing control over cross border flow of information and resources need to redefine their strategic priorities. Many an occasion, different states might manifest differing preferences, the outcome of which would be an inability to arrive at global consensus. Online gambling might be illegal in some countries, yet many small countries would be open to the idea given the revenue potential.   Traditional arrangements work best when states as a whole exhibit congruence and no points of control exist. The international agreements arise when such consensus is possible. To many states, in the absence of points of control, the capacity to exert its power is limited and thus willing to compromise. If the points of control are present, and the state bargaining power is strong, hybrid regulations emerge. Most of these might even in more ways than one benefit the private actors while getting state support. The US administration towards the end of the 19th century demonstrated the hybrid arrangements best.  Currently the role of ICANN best demonstrates the same.

Contradicting preferences between states and private actors often result in stalemate in the absence of points of control. This stalemate however is contingent of the state capacity. In the absence of state capacity to act, the stalemate might give way to private domination. Very few global arrangements are possible and each state might reveal power relative to its state capacity.  In the presence of points of control, there is without doubt competitive attempts to wrest their control. Moreover, the willingness and credibility of the state to exercise its power in leveraging points of control determine the trajectory of these contestations. The firms desire regulatory capture at state’s expense resulting in contradictory impulses. These battles often get played out in overseas political geographies in a different manner and an altogether different game is played in the native geography. US often went after the corporate power to rein in monopoly power and promote competition. There was competitive battle for the same, yet the corporate and state cooperated in exerting power in terms of capture of sovereignty overseas directly or indirectly.  Chinese attempts in overseas regulatory capture as well as its application of power domestically on MNCs illustrate the gradation of exercise of power owing to the increasing state capacity.

Amazon-India cold war is a manifestation of century old battles and India is well within its right to exercise its sovereignty. There are points of control and state capacity is perchance stronger than ever before and thus high times establishes its interests and sensitivities and acts upon the same.  Domestic interests are paramount and there cannot be compromise on the same. India’s stand on RCEP is a reflection of the same. India has to prove its state capacity as also the alacrity and credibility in leveraging the points of control to its benefit when it comes to protection of national interests. 


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

The Chicken-Egg Conundrum of Economics

A Note on Supply-Demand Dynamics