Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Political Bodyline of the Indian Left Liberal


The authoritative verdict of 2019 meant that post Nehru 1957, PM Modi was the first to win a back to back elections with increase in both seats and vote share. To the edifice fabricated at connexions of Marx, Nehru and Mohammad, the shock magnitude was high. The follow up surgical strikes in Article 370, Ayodhya judgment and grant of accelerated citizenship to persecuted religious minorities seemed insult to injury.  Faced with an existential crisis, it was inevitable to see a spill-over of emotions onto the street, the outcome being full view in the last month and half or so.  While Mamta was first off the block vowing to prevent CAA being implemented in her state, the competitive pursuit ensured Kerala go a step forward to have its assembly pass a resolution opposing the implementation of CAA. Many other states opposition states have joined the rhetoric notwithstanding CAA is central subject and states have no role in the same. Contrast to Tukde Tukde slogans in the previous JNU battles of 2015-16, an interesting difference is the adoption of national flag, constitutional preamble and national anthem as symbols of protest. Perhaps there is realisation maybe belated that secessionist slogans might be politically costly. The citizen at heart is a nationalist and will never tolerate intentions to break the country. This is true in any geography. However, regardless of the changed symbolism, deep within the outgoing ecosystem fighting a rear-guard action, the idea of India being split into multiple territories has not vanished. The slogans, banners, posters and pamphlets emergent in the protests are pointers to the fact. It might seem extremely low probability of mainstream political opposition adopting the route of prospective secessionism, this cannot be ruled out given the high stakes in the war.   

The war over the ideological directions of the socio-politico-cultural ecosystem is best analysed   through a comparison with the ‘Bodyline’ Ashes of 1932-33. Bodyline is attributed to three factors. There was a high stakes prize which involved the invoking of national identity and pride to the extreme. Ashes was precisely a contest of the same in a cricket crazy countries. Cricket in fact defined culture in those regions.  Secondly, one side had an individual/group whose dominance would be so overwhelming and maybe only non-conventional method irrespective of its legality would stop the force. Bradman was precisely such a character. Third, there must be an individual who apart from having unqualified and total support from his teammates and teammates who had the ability to execute his ideas, must be willing to go out of the way and use any means as long as ends are met.  Bradman had a narrow chink in armour against fast bowling on the leg stump. In Douglas Jardine, there was a captain who not just had unstinting support from his bowlers (Gubby Allen notwithstanding) but willing to go with the leg theory as the first line of offense ( narrow chink in Bradman’s armour). To Jardine, it was evident that ends mattered irrespective of the means he used. He had his instruments in Larwood, Voce and Bowes to achieve the target he aimed for. The outcome of course was bringing Bradman to more human levels, an average of 57 still some 15 runs ahead of Walter Hammond, his nearest rival. Spirit of cricket did not matter, just the ends mattered. 1932-33 Ashes saw convergence of all the three factors.

The pretext of so called Gandhian moral approach combined with Hindu guilt trapping ensured Nehru-Marxian monopoly on the public intellectual, educational, social, cultural and artistic spheres. The monopoly was further with convenient coalition with the Islamists. Multitude of reasons exist on how the monopoly emerged but suffice at the moment to argue that the 65 year dominance is not just challenged but in the process of dismantling. The deracinated Hindu mind might give way to the original Indic identity thus sending the self-styled liberal ecosystem into oblivion. The system cultivated and profited from at the altar of Indian culture and identity is being broken by one Narendra Modi along with his lieutenant Amit Shah. In terms of electoral victories they seem Bradmansque.  To a system on throes of death, it needs an action that should save itself without bothering about the means of achieving the end.  Evidence of Jardinism, egged on by media manifested from Kanahiya Kumar to Hardik Patel to Chandrashekhar Azad to Shah Faisal to the latest in the stable Aishe Ghosh.

Yet liberal ecosystem is missing undisputed leader to challenge Modi and Shah. Internal divergences are perhaps too strong. Further the leader to demonstrate Jardinism will have to not command blind support of his vote-bank but have capabilities to inflict violence at low costs.  Violence of few is sufficient enough to unnerve the rest of the society. This is precisely how Islam and later British ruled India for centuries.  Leadership fulfilling the needs is perhaps possible in the Islamic movement given its infra and super structures. What perhaps is being exhibited is the advance operations or what in military parlance is termed road opening party, Going forward, it is likely that the left and Nehruvians etc would subordinate themselves as foot soldiers and generals to an Islamic led movement seeking to dethrone Hindu right. External backing cannot be ruled out.  The current violence with low costs and relatively higher marginal benefits are a façade for a larger design to emerge. Given the first signs are visible, calls for secessionism or Tukde Tukde might emerge once again and perhaps scaled up? There might be pretensions of Nehru-Marx complex at the top of disassociating from the emergent radicalism a la Shashi Tharoor. Yet it would just be a smokescreen. The probability of such escalation beyond photo-ops of the fringe might seem low, yet cannot be ruled out. History is always by accident and just a small tinder is enough to set the forest on fire. Eternal vigilance is price of liberty


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