Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Output Saving and Digital Domain


Both production and consumption no longer resemble what we have envisaged them over last 300 years or so. As we begin the third decade of the 21st century, the economic universe is stark in it contrast to its look a mere 80 or so years ago. Simon Kuznets and team ‘invented’ the concept of GDP in 1937, yet eight decades down the line, the limitations of the same are getting becoming ever more visible. The answers lie in the emergence of what one terms the information revolution. Internet and subsequent rapid diffusion has touched upon daily lives in many ways. Manifest is the new theoretical discussion on the role of production and consumption in microeconomic literature.  

Economics functions on the notion of scarcity. Implied is constant endeavor to produce goods using lesser and lesser resources. In production analysis, isoquants represent locus of all combinations of inputs producing same level of output. Derived from the same is the idea of least cost production. Factoring the input productivity, presumably, technology leads to production of same quantity of output using lower amount of inputs. In other words shifting of isoquants downwards without compromising on the output. Kaldor termed it technical progress. Similar analysis was done among others by Kuznets, Solow etc. In fact to Solow, technical progress did ensure the lower use of resources the yet the improvements in productivity using technology function remained unobserved in the macroeconomic statistics. It was a sort of paradox which later has been expanded among others by Brynjolfson, Hulten and Nakamura etc.

The seemingly rapid expansion of the knowledge economy has transformed knowledge as key factor in production. More than labour, it is the knowledge that drives the output. Yet, away from the shifting knowledge output equations, technical progress is increasingly being reflected in the utility analysis too. What was once perhaps theoretical and certainly not primary, is slowly gaining a momentum in terms of research literature.

As Lancaster pointed out in 1968 itself, utility is derived from characteristics of goods acquired and not from goods themselves. A rational individual does not derive utility from television set per se, instead the utility is derived from it characteristic from visuals ranging from news to entertainment to sports to shopping that it beams to his or her couch potato seat. Similarly the multipurpose utilitarian characteristics of the smart phone that create its utility for the user and not the device itself. Implied in the above is the assertion that separate ‘consumption technology’ transmutes goods, measured at production cost, into consumption ‘activities’ or ‘commodities’ providing utility.

Consumption technology perceptibly was not static. It had to evolve over time. As anticipated, the changes evolved with innovation. The outcome was palpable and increased efficiency in consumer choice.  Augmentation of efficiency occurred through more or less costless improvements in product quality.  Oblique to the discussion is these improvements resulted in satiating the same wants to be bought for same amount of money.  Those purchasing television sets in the 2000s paid more or less same money as those who were purchasing television sets in the mid to late 1980s. However, the quality in term of product and service had considerably improved in the intervening years. In real terms prices of television sets had contracted while the product and characteristics associated with the product that generated consumer utility had significantly expanded. The incomes having increased saw a rightward shift of the budget line, inward shift of the isoutility curve thus in some ways creating sub-optimal consumption given the constraints. Movement towards the optimal bundle of the goods and thus consumer equilibrium allowed consumers to buy greater amount of goods thus shifting outwards the point of consumer equilibrium. Today, the ubiquity of smart phones accompanied by generativity of varying degrees is creating similar outward shift in consumer equilibrium.

This shift in utility function relative to consumer budget constraint has multiple catalyst in terms of improvements in the development, storage, and dissemination of information, the rise of social media and information exchange, the continuous expansion of online services etc. Smart phones not merely represent instrument of communication but also of storage and access to information. The social media has democratized exchange of information besides creating a production of information itself. The evaluation of these new features that embody a smart phone for instance has ensured the consumer generates more utility per given amount of expenditure. As pointed above, in real terms the marginal expenditure to generate additional utility from the good is indicating towards a downward sloping trend. This amplifies the utility further.

The ubiquity of search engines have resulted technology underpinned lower cognitive costs of choice evaluation. Consumption of narrow range of goods, loyalty etc. were often a product of constraints in terms of costs of choice evaluation rather than distaste for experimentation. If there were to be an isocost line for cognitive costs for choice evaluation, search engines have expanded it outwards. While the increased offers on exhibition might result in diminishing returns, there is no doubt that possibility of adverse selection has reduced thanks to proliferation of information and consequent ease of access to the information. This access to information transforms behavior and has attained critical mass which amplifies utility than mere technology underpinning it.

In conventional economic thinking, the focus was resource saving and was associated with the innovation creating costless shifts in aggregate production functions. It would we illustrative to indicate capital and labour might be scarce yet the knowledge the labour brings in utilizing capital to develop the output is not scarce. On the other hand, it is often observed a multiplier effect, non-rivalrous or even anti-rivalrous effect of the same.  The new paradigm of output saving innovation contrasts the resource saving innovation and impacts the aggregate utility function. Output-saving innovation allows consumers to generate increased consumer surplus both in terms of utility generated by the good consumed and the ability to consume additional goods facilitated by income saving. Therefore, the add-on to conventional model allows innovation to go directly to consumer. Macroeconomic impact of the same is perceptible in the monetary gains of innovation bypassing GDP. In terms of GDP measurement, prices might be down and the increased quantity produced might not compensate for the same, yet what is undeniably that has increased is the consumer surplus. Of course, consumer surplus is indirect, subjective and not very easily measurable.

Despite the difficulties, utility-augmented version of sources-of-growth model in orthodox thinking might have run out of time. The express linkages of these models with the associated expenditure & indirect utility functions mandate reconstruction of the same. Indirect utility functions along with expenditure function factors the consumer behavior of linking preferences to consumption and quantity of consumption than prices.  The shifting emphasis in microeconomic terms is likely to have a macroeconomic understanding. It might be early days yet, but consumption technology and consequent utility functions are presenting in their own ways new pathways for economics in the digital domain.


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