India China tensions
at the border continue to build up. Talks are on for possible disengagement but
despite the apparent movement towards de-escalation, there is hardly any change
on the ground. The site of the clashes in the Galwan Valley was about the
Chinese obstinacy in refusing to withdraw behind the agreed points. Yet the
moment clashes ended, China seem to be back at PP-14 in the Galwan valley. The tensions
are far higher in the Pangong Tso area where the disengagement is around the
grey area between Fingers 4-8. The Indians are moving to occupy the heights and
the tensions are unlikely to subside. Given the trust deficit that exists
between the two countries especially after the Galwan incidents, it is unlikely
that India will scale down in response to Chinese possible de-escalation moves.
On the contrary, there is hardly any optimism or even expectation that China
will back down despite its humiliation in Galwan. There seems to be all the
more reason for China to hit back and seek revenge for the same.
India’s policy
towards China has been reactive. China went and constructed a highway across
Aksai Chin in 1954 which India discovered a few years later. India made the
information public only in 1959. Nehruvian policy towards China was perplexing
to say the least. In fact at times Nehru perhaps believed China was unlikely to
attack India thus making him go ahead with his forward policy in NEFA. His
forward policy might have been right if only there was planning, strategy and
execution behind it rather than being a mere statement of occupation on certain
ground on MacMahon line. Chinese reaction was all to be expected but what was
worse was the humiliation India endured thanks to the follies of the forward
policy.
In the later
years, whether in Sikkim or Sumdrong Cho or Depsang Plains or Chusul or Dolam,
Indian policy is a reaction to Chinese moves. China have made moves to occupy
land or heights which over a period become default possession of China. In
fact, in legal jargons, China believes in capture through adverse possession.
India has already lost sizeable area to this adventure. Even in Dolam while
India won a tactical victory, China seemed to achieving a strategic objective. The
point with the Indian moves also has to do with the fact that India seems
content with tactical victories with little follow up. There was no movement
towards permanently basing the Indian army posts or ITBP posts in Dolam post
the Chinese withdrawal. There has been little attempt by India to dislodge Chinese
posts that come temporarily. In fact, the past agreements seem to tie up Indian
hands to use weapons and restrict to man to man combat.
India has to
shed aside its reactive pretensions. Through the last 70 odd years since
independence, India has sought to convey a project of war avoidance. In fact,
the intervention in East Pakistan leading to creation of Bangladesh in 1971 too
was thrust upon it rather than being a proactive action. If India needs to demonstrate
its aspirational credentials for superpower status, it must show its
willingness to use hard power. India seems to have imprisoned itself into a
status of seeking to convey a peaceful power projection which would never work
in reality. India’s current approach must change towards a proactive and
pre-emptive attitude. Towards this India needs to look at Israel in 1967.
In 1967, Israel
was being drawn into a possible conflict with its Arab neighbours. The 1948 war
had never cooled down and was followed by Israeli invasion of Egypt in 1956
along with Britain and France. It was stopped by US intervention. Yet the
embers continue to burn. By 1967, President Naseer of Egypt had entered into
defence agreement with Syria and by May 1967, a similar agreement was signed
between Egypt and Jordan. Iraq too remained in the Arab sphere though Saudi
Arabia while supporting the Arab world seemed to content itself with
non-participation in case of a war.
By end May-1967,
tensions were rising and seemed a matter of time conflict began in the West
Asia. The Arabs were determined to put Israel its place unable to reconcile to
its existence. Israel was in two minds on its approach. Yet within itself,
after a prolonged debate and discussion, Israel came to a conclusion of
pre-emptive strategies. On June 5, 1967, Israel launched a surprise pre-emptive
attack on Egypt. The Egyptian government was completely taken aback by the
move. In fact the Israeli bombing destroyed virtually the entire Egyptian air
force within a matter of hours. In a departure from expected move, Israel attacked
the Sinai Peninsula from different vantage points catching Egypt by surprise.
Hundreds of Egyptian soldiers were killed and many others taken prisoners. In
fact, Israel had to let go numerous prisoners since it lacked the holding capacity.
Towards the eastern border, Israel attacked Jordan and captured West Bank and
the remainder of Jerusalem. Syria entered the war from the north only to lose
Golan Heights. It was just a six-day war but the losses Israel inflicted would
continue to haunt Arabs for years. It was one of the most brilliant military
performances in history.
Israeli prestige
increased and spurred the economic growth. The war victory resulted in
technology spill overs and transformed agrarian nature of Israeli society into
an industrial and technological society. As India seeks to confront China, it
needs to look at this example. India needs to pre-empt any Chinese moves and
attack China at the point where it least expects so. Casus belli can be
invented. In fact both Israel and Egypt claimed to have been attacked by each
other. India must inflict a military damage on China. Only a battered China
would be in a position where it can back off from its aggressive stance every
now and then. India cannot afford to play a defensive game. It would be seen as
a sign of weakness whether India desires or not. There is no right or wrong
time for the same. The world respects power and those who do not shirk from
using power.
As India plans
its strategy, talks can go in a war of attrition and also to prepare its men
and materials. But India must demonstrate its military prowess that will not
just send a signal to China but to Pakistan and many other countries. The patience
must not be translated into perceived weakness. The time for the same is now.
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