There is an
interesting article by GZero media on the continuing high popularity ratings of
Prime Minister Modi. The article can be found here. The article sought to find
reasons why PM Modi continues to be popular despite the lockdown, the economic
challenges and the continuing rise in cases of Wuhan flu. It discusses about a
few reasons. It would be interesting to decode some reasons why PM Modi
continues to command high ratings into his second term.
In the past, PM
Indira Gandhi experienced the zenith of her popularity post Bangladesh war of
1971 but soon he regime turned into a disaster. Her comeback in 1980 did not
end her troubles as Punjab exploded into cauldrons on Khalistani struggles
leading to Operation Bluestar followed by her own assassination. PM Manmohan
Singh was literally dysfunctional in his second term more so after the Anna
Hazare fast of 2011. PM Nehru in his third term suffered setback due to the
Chinese invasion of 1962 from which he never recovered. So in that context,
history is not kind to Prime Ministers who have secured their second full term
or made a comeback after an election defeat. One year into his second term PM Modi
has faced greater challenges than what he has in the first five years.
Without doubt,
he achieved their key goals in their manifesto including the Article 370
abolition, resolution of Ram Janmabhoomi at Ayodhya, Citizenship Amendment Act
among others. He has set in the process of liberating agricultural sector from
its socialist hangover through changes in the produce marketing and contract
legislations. Yet, along with the same he has encountered the pandemic
resulting through the Chinese virus, the lockdown imposed to contain it has
resulted in economic dislocation, migrant movements have created chaos among
other things. On the external front, Chinese faceoff in Ladakh has taken a
violent turn disruption a near half century fragile truce. So a natural
question is whether it has impacted him electorally. If not what makes him to
be perceived invincible. An attempt will have to be made to find the answers.
A point that
gets missed out in the article, but perhaps most pertinent is the perception in
the common man or woman about his intentions. His intentions are perceived
honest. As they would say in Hindi, it is about ‘saaf niyat’. The outcomes
might not necessarily be favourable, there might be unintended consequences,
but his intentions do not have traces of dishonesty or personal benefit. This
was manifest through the demonetization process, GST and its teething troubles,
dealings with Pakistan, economic downturn, handling of COVID-19 among other
things. Furthermore, his long working hours create an aura among the people.
Given he has not taken a holiday for last six years even for a single day, adds
to his popularity. Furthermore, he seems to wage a lonely battle against an
establishment that has long enjoyed perks and privileges make him part of the
common man.
The trust is
thus built on the intentions and the style of work without caring for personal
benefits. Moreover, he is widely seen as a decisive leader. To people, it is
not about good or bad that comes out but the decisiveness and boldness of
action that counts. Again it was his decisive and bold steps against Pakistan
that endeared him to people as much as the daring and swift step to end Article
370 in Jammu and Kashmir. For all the teething troubles, GST was seen as a
necessary step to change the Indian economic landscape. His lockdown might have
created economic woes or social woes through inter-state migrant movement but
was seen something extremely essential to combat conceivably deadly disease.
People will remember the peak and end experiences of an event and they are
willing to sacrifice at the peak for a visibly happy end experience. This
reinforces Modi’s hold on the Indian populace.
A plus point for
PM Modi is his clean image. He is not corrupt and has been forthright in taking
on corruption that has deeply embedded Indian life. The progress on direct
benefit transfers, Aadhar based delivery, etc. are seen as necessary measures
to counter corruption. Further his welfare measures like Ayushmaan Bharat, Jan
Dhan, Mudra, farmer insurance, housing for all among many others have changed
the lives of many at the bottom of the pyramid for the better. His welfare
schemes that saw the development reaching grassroots, to the weaker sections
that saw him securing a robust mandate last year. His execution and
implementation are deemed impeccable and that perhaps would be his biggest
political legacy. Further, the lobby based governance that characterised the
previous governments has virtually disappeared. The fact, the secrecy in
announcing measures has caught many off-guard and that adds to the popularity
ratings.
PM Modi belongs
to a backward group numerically small, politically insignificant and that spurs
his ratings. To many, his humble origins as a ‘chai-wallah’ spurs the necessary
incentives and become a role model for many. To many in the backward groups
socially and economically, it is an occasion to be proud of someone who grew
from the humble roots to achieve the highest position in the country. In fact,
despite corruption and inefficient administration leaders like Mayawati, Laloo
Yadav, Mamta Banerjee have commanded significant popularity ratings for this
precise reason.
Modi’s personal
equations with many foreign leaders also makes a difference. As the images are
broadcast and circulated all over about his interactions with the top leaders
across the world, it sends a message of strong and confident India. In a world
where India was more of an underdog, an Indian leader talking with counterparts
on equal footings gives a strong message. His invitation to President Trump to
address rally in Ahmedabad while he himself receiving great reception in Dallas
where it seemed Trump needed him for his re-election all add upto the aura. Not
many Indian leaders can match the
reception he has received in different places.
In any calculus,
there would be both push and pull ratings. The listless opposition led by the
declining Nehru Gandhi family is perhaps the most important. Rahul Gandhi
increasingly resembles a Bahadur Shah Zafar presiding over a dynasty whose
clout ends at the gate of 10 Janpath. The national elections are all about
stability and apart from the Congress, there is no party that has the base to
even contest for half of the seats. The electoral situation more resembles
something of pre-1991 wherein Congress was a dominant force while others had
mere pockets of influence here and there. The only difference is BJP has
replaced the Congress. Aside of this, the defection laws have made it difficult
for the parties to merge together at the national level. The rounds of forming
and breaking the parties is difficult at this stage in the national political scene.
To sum up, it is
a combination of multiple factors that make Modi very strong in the Indian
electoral terms. It is just not a sum of least negatives or sum of low
credibility opposition but also has to do with the actions, decisiveness with
which the actions were taken, the intentions with which the actions, the
positives that emerged from those actions towards betterment of human lives all
contribute to his ever high popular ratings.
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