The US violence
over the death of George Floyd has assumed greater proportions. It is
increasingly shaping up the divide that exists in the US. Its spill overs are
threatening across Europe and other places too. Irrespective of the immediate
cause, it is apparent that the Antifa among others have hijacked the protests
towards their own narrow ends. The liberal game plan is unfolding to the extent
even the articles or newspaper columns by the anti-protest commentators are not
being allowed to publish. Given the state of the ecosystem, many commentators
are drawing parallels to similar protests in1968. To many, it seems that 2020
elections might go the way of 1968.
Niall Fergusson,
the noted conservative commentator however differs on this assessment. In his article,
he assesses that while 1968 in many ways ended the Presidential campaign of
incumbent Lyndon Johnson thus forcing him to withdraw, current incumbent Donald
Trump might actually benefit from the same. The year 1968 was a different era
and perhaps evokes nostalgia, emotions, perhaps something more from those who
have lived through the era. The era was age of the rebellion. The
anti-establishment was at its peak in the Western World. Hardly a country would
have escaped the brunt of the anti-establishment campaigns that erupted all
over the world.
Civil Rights
movement had turned northward and morphed into Black Consciousness movement. It
was the age of Black Power movement. The manifestation of the same came in 1968
Olympics at Mexico which itself was overshadowed by student protests all over
the country. In a televised medal ceremony, US athletes raised the black fist
salute symbolizing the Black Power movement. The rise of organizations like
Black Panthers in the US which advocated violence added a new dimension. There
were boycotts in schools and others on the grounds of black inequality. The
killing of Martin Luther King Jr. aggravated the situation. If it was not
enough, Democrat contender Robert Kennedy was shot dead by a Palestinian
terrorist owing to his alleged support of Israel in Six-Day War.
The US was
witness to large demonstrations against the Vietnam War. The Democrat Party
convention became a site for large protests against the war. Americans could
not simply stomach the fact why they had to die in a distant land which hardly
had done any harm to them. Moreover, the ideological justification of Vietnam
intervention was thought to be too weak to justify the body bags. The situation
was made critical by the recession that struck US in that year. In contrast,
inflationary pressures to begin to emerge. However, in contrast to the media
coverage of the today’s events in US, the media according to Fergusson was
largely unsympathetic to the protestors of 1968. Further Fergusson contends the
electoral diversity is more pronounced in the current election though the
demographics are skewed towards older age groups. The post war boom kids in
1968 were just emerging on the employment horizon and thus also influenced by
the political outcomes. The interest in politics had been rekindled by this
group which had not faced the war. Perhaps, the parents yet to recover from the
consequences of the World War II and the Korean War that followed the same did
not want their kids to die in a distant land for no worthwhile cause.
However. Fergusson
contends, it would be a mistake to compare the events of 2020 to the ones in
1968. While there was Vietnam War then, today it is the war against COVID-19.
The Wuhan flu has created havoc. Interestingly, in 1969, the Hong Kong flu
apparently claimed more than a lakh lives in the US. Incidentally, the
super-spreader event was the Woodstock festival of 1969. To Ferguson, the
events following the shooting of George Floyd perhaps have come to the rescue
of Trump. In 1968, President Johnson bowed out of the race arguing he could not
run an election in a divided land. Yet, for Trump, it might be a time to divert
the attention from the rising deaths through Wuhan flu. There have been
multiple criticisms about his handling of the crisis. To be fair however, it is
not just Trump, but many of the State Governors who too are responsible for the
crisis. Many Democrat Governors including McCuomo of New York have escaped
scrutiny though their performance is much left to be desired.
In the opinion
of Ferguson, Trump thrives on disorder. His core selling point would be of a
President surrounded by the disruptionists bent on destructing America. As he
goes about making America great, he will be hindered by these barriers. Weaving
conspiracy theories seem to be usual for Trump. Therefore, Trump will use the
opportunity to whip up hysteria and his core voter base. Thus unlike Johnson,
Trump might actually benefit from the riots.
To a few analyst
including Niall, the elections are seemingly heading towards a possible repeat
of 2000 Bush vs Gore. Yet this would be a mistaken proposition. Trump’s threat
to use the military to crush the protests have drawn significant criticism from
many quarters. Republican giants like President Bush, Gen. Powell have
withdrawn their backing to President Trump. Yet, while woke considerations
might make many whites express indignation at this proposal, within themselves,
the Trump constituency would be more than delighted. US is deeply divided racially. There is
considerable Black anger against Whites and vice versa. Whites seem to be more
looking inwards. They need an avenue for expression of their power which they
feel has been eroded. Irrespective of the merits of the same, translation into
electoral votes cannot be ruled out. There is good possibility, like 2016, the
Trump voters might become secretive. For fear of backlash, they might point
towards contradictory positions. So one might not be surprised to see polls
showing dead heat or even edge to Biden as one heads to November 3. Yet, on the
voting day, the whites might overwhelmingly vote for Trump. It is also possible
that Blacks will vote in unison against Trump. The traditional black states
might see Biden victory but the conservative Red states will stand behind
Trump. It might be moot to compare the current with 1968 but what is certainly
worrying is the increasing divide that is engulfing the United States that once
stated itself to be melting pot of cultures.
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