While the world
is coming to some sort of a grip on the Wuhan flu, battle of words is heating
up between the US and China. President Trump, given the election year, is
unlikely to leave any stone unturned to bring China to accountability for the
pandemic. Europe too is moving towards demanding accountability from China.
They have found support from Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada among
others. India is still discreet on its stand. The WHO general assembly though
curtailed is scheduled the coming week and the debate is expected to intensify.
India, given its taking over the position in the Executive Board will be compelled
to reveal its stand on China. However PM Modi in his address to G-20 had raised
the issue of the reforms in WHO to ensure accountability and transparency.
Statements from senior ministers and leaders of the ruling party indicate a
perception of India’s belief in the unnatural origins of the virus. They might
be a trial balloon but indicate a possible starting point for the India’s stand
at WHO and other international fora.
Meanwhile China
continues to remain unrepentant. Most of the aid it supplied to various
countries was faulty. The test kits had low accuracy. Countries from Spain to
Czechia to India to Netherlands to Tanzania all report defective kits imported
from China. This seems to have angered China even more. Furthermore, China is
flexing its muscles in the neighbourhood. It is seeking to intimidate Taiwan
and prevent its entry as observer at WHO. The next week will perhaps see more sparks flying between US, Japan, Europe
etc. and China over the Taiwan issue. China has not ruled out some kind of
military action against Taiwan though such statements are not unusual. China
has been aggressively patrolling the South China Sea and has encroached the
Malaysian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). It has rammed into Vietnamese boats.
Similar exercise of intimidation has been happening on the Himalayan borders
both in Sikkim and Ladakh with India. Chinese vehicles have rammed into Indian
army vehicles in Ladakh heating up the temperatures between the two sides. Its
intimidation of Mongolia, Laos etc. have been pretty old. It has threatened
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Britain among others with retaliation for
their measures to curb Chinese economic influence in their countries. China is
instigating Nepal to rake up an old unresolved boundary dispute with India.
China is claiming territories currently under the control of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
etc. It has gone ahead and claimed Mount Everest as its own. It might not be
far off when China claims to own Hawaii. In all these intimidatory behaviour,
the question is will China engage in a military adventure that will perhaps
degenerate into an all-out war with the rest of the world.
Such fears might
be unwarranted yet need an analysis. President Xi is facing pressure for his
handling of the Wuhan flu. While a few months back President Xi was looking
invincible but suddenly things have changed. They are no longer rosy for him.
He does not seem to have the same kind of authoritative support within the
party. There are reports of murmurs of discontent. Xi’s policy of aggressive
stance globally has not gone well and is fraught with risks. It is at this
juncture that one wonders whether Xi would take a risk of invading Taiwan. If
there is trigger for war, it has to happen in Taiwan. Xi could come out a
winner if Taiwan collapses in a few days and the US preoccupied with the Wuhan
flu remains neutral militarily. It might do a lot of talking but if it doesn’t
send in the armed forces, then China could come out with a big win and emerge
as a superpower in its own right. Not many countries will take it head on and
the US would have lost its face. Europe too would kowtow to China. Yet, such an
occurrence is fraught with lot of both uncertainty and risk.
There is no
guarantee that Taiwan would fold quickly. Any prolonging of the war would
affect Xi politically within the country. At the time when the country is yet
to recover from the pandemic its rulers unleashed, it would be double whammy
and make Xi susceptible to pressures both within and without. His position
would become untenable. Secondly, there is no guarantee that US will not
intervene. It might give President Trump just the opportunity to show China its
place and send in the forces with perhaps aid from Australia, New Zealand,
Japan and Korea among other countries.
A US-China war
would hardly be in anyone’s interest more so to Xi. He has very few friends who
might be of substantial help. ASEAN member nations might be intimidated by
China but domestic pressures might keep them neutral and least likely to help China.
Furthermore, if China runs over Mongolia, it might aggravate its difficulties
even further. China has no guarantee that India will not attack from the
Western and Southern borders. Moreover India might use the opportunity to
capture Gilgit and Baltistan cutting the Chinese link with Pakistan. Pakistan
is susceptible to US pressures and thus might opt for neutrality. Central Asian
republics too are unlikely to side with China and might oppose it or remain
neutral. African countries and Latin American countries for all their
colonising by China are too distant to make material impact on the conflict.
Iran might be one of the few to side with China but its lack of border with
China will deter it.
The most
important dimension for China would be its ability to maintain the energy
security. China is huge energy importer with most of the imports coming from
the Persian Gulf through the Straits of Malacca to the Eastern Coast of China.
This would be significantly disrupted. Given the base of US in the Indian
Ocean, American submarines could harass Chinese tankers operating in the area.
Further US could bring all its pressure on the Gulf countries to halt their oil
exports to China. Iranian exports could be curbed by the neutrality of Central Asian
republics besides the US submarines in the Indian Ocean.
To China,
another critical factor could be the role of Russia. For all the professed
friendship and virtually being a vassal, President Putin is unlikely to
intervene in the war. He would be compelled to open a two front war with the
European countries on the West and US led forces in the East. President Putin
is hardly in the best of the times given the current pressures on corona and
oil and thus might opt neutrality. His oilfields in the Sakhalin might be of
help to China but subject to disruption by US and allied forces. Thus economic
interests would perhaps dictate Putin’s decisions.
As Paul Kennedy
argued, the results of the war rests on the relative economic prowess. It boils
down to who survives economically for a longer period. Hitler’s invasion of
Russia was essentially to capture its oil fields. Measured through the economic
angle, China seems vulnerable given its deficiencies in the energy
requirements. Therefore, unless China is absolutely certain of the stands of
countries like US and Russia besides India, Japan and ASEAN is unlikely to
engage in any misadventure. The current environment does not seem conducive for
Chinese military plans.
Yet the hazards
of guessing are too many. In 1910 or so, there were quite a few who were in the
belief that the world was seeing an era of peace never seen before and the era
of war was virtually over. It was the era of globalization 1.0 and Friedman’s
of the era were busy suggesting that global interdependence would make war
redundant and unsustainable. Yet within 35 years, the world saw two wars, the
scale of which was never seen before. The destruction it was unfolded wiped a
generation or two with hardly any country left out of the trail of the
destruction it unleashed. As such only a small miscalculation or a small
trigger is what is needed to degenerate into a war. The omens do not portend a
war at the moment but we never know.
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