Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

An Amery in the Congress or Night of the Long Knives?

 

The grand old party of Indian politics the Indian National Congress seems to find no end to the churnings inside and outside. Given the consecutive drubbings it has received in the general elections both in 2014 and 2019, it is not surprising to find those churnings. At the core of the churnings and discontent in the Congress is the Nehru-Gandhi family which has treated it as a family business. As a matter of fact, the ownership of the Congress by the Nehru-Gandhi family is nothing new. It goes back to 1931 when Motilal Nehru was on his deathbed. He was a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC), the highest policy making body in the party. So  were his son Jawaharlal, daughther in law, Kamala, son in law, Ranjit Pandit. Soon they were followed by Motilal’s daughter Vijayalakshmi. The control of the party by the family in many ways is close to nine decades now though it was only in the last fifty years that it was complete domination.

 

The current crisis began immediately after the results of 2019 elections were announced. The Congress lost its government first in Karnataka and later in Madhya Pradesh. They have barely managed to save their government in Rajasthan. In Maharashtra, while they stole the government from under the nose of the BJP, they are marginal players, the reins being in the hands of Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena. Discontents are visible in Jharkhand. It is losing coalition partners in Kerala.

 

Rahul Gandhi resigned as the Congress President after the elections only to have his mother reappointed as Congress President. It was to be an interim position, yet, more than a year has elapsed with no signs of permanent full time president being appointed. All the last CWC meeting managed to achieve was to ensure Sonia would continue for at least six more months with no definite time table in place for party elections. Meanwhile while his mother is the party president, the reins of power stills continues to be exercised by Rahul.  There is a feeling increasingly being expressed that Rahul doesn’t want to hold any official position but wants to exercise power without responsibility. A case in point is the appointment of Hardik Patel as Gujarat Congress President ahead of many a seasoned veterans.

 

The recent manifestation of the crisis emerged when 23 leaders of the party led by the Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha sent a letter to the party president. The letter demanded a schedule for elections for both party president and party working committee. It called for collective leadership, in other words return to the primacy of long defunct Parliamentary Board. The letter was leaked on the eve of the Working Committee meeting. No doubt, it set in a chain of events of expression of loyalty to the party president or in other words the first family of the Congress party. The leaders who wrote this letter were sidelined. It was not before some fireworks happened on Twitter.

 

While it might have ended as a storm in tea cup something witnessed in Rajasthan, it is mere comma with the sentence yet to be completed. All that seemed to have happened is postponement of the showdown to sometime in the near future. Rather than a front against Sonia, it seems a pre-emptive attack on Rahul to ensure he doesn’t return as party president. The self styled Crown Prince of the Congress party for long believes that he is destined man to lead the country. Yet when the opportunities emerged he declined trying to signal statesmanship. The Prince has no positioning and keeps flirting with his stands. There is no consistency something conceded by some of his admirers too. Recent outbursts by Congress leaning intellectuals like Ramachandra Guha are pointers to frustration with Rahul and his style of functioning. Moreover, rather relying on the tried and tested old guard, he seems to rely on his own coterie drawn from outside politics. The effects were visible in the 2019 elections when he lived in a delusion that the party would form the government till the election results began trickling in. This merely confirmed the political naiveté of the Prince in waiting. His team has virtually zero experience on the ground and many are in fact from dynasties. Unlike his uncle Sanjay and father Rajiv who moulded a generation of leaders, Rahul has been far from it. Almost all of his inner circle have no experience in politics or trace their roots as products of dynasties. Moreover, in his desire to mould on grandmom, he is planning a coup or rather the Congress version of the Night of Long Knives. Yet he lacks the political acumen nor the charisma of his grandmother nor can rely on the instincts that his uncle perfected.

 

Yet, it is undeniable that the stage to back down from the confrontation is over. The family has no option but to fight it out. Rahul Gandhi might have perfected or at least seems to believe his strategy will pay rich dividends in the times to come. Yet, irrespective of its merits or otherwise, it is virtually impossible for Rahul to change course mid-way. This in turn puts across a dilemma for the family. The family cannot be seen as to be admitting that Rahul’s game plan was a failure. It further cannot admit that the current strategy of Rahul will yield diminishing returns going forward. Both mother and sister have no option but to brave it out. Contrary to the projection that there is a split in the family or differences of opinion exists in the family, it is clear that the family takes a common stand once it finalizes the same at its dinner table. To an average Congressman however, it is a different ball game. Their future rests on different motivations and parameters than that of the first family of the party. The letter that was sent was essentially a reflection of the same. It was an opinion that many in the party had been expressing in the private but very few would dare to bell the cat. All that Ghulam Nabi Azad and team did was to attempt belling the cat. They probably thought they would do a Leo Amery but could end up being caught in the Night of Long Knives.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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